Evaluating Bucs’ 2023 Free Agent Additions

The Bucs didn’t have much money to work with this past offseason. Facing the financial hangover of a three-year Super Bowl window binge, the sobering reality had finally sunk in. Tampa Bay would need to make some responsible decisions in order to help reset their salary cap for 2024 and beyond.

This made for slim pickings in terms of the free agents they could afford/pursue. But they still had several holes on their roster they would need to fill and only so many draft picks to help. So, Jason Licht and the Bucs would need to find players who could contribute a decent bang for a very small buck.

Now as we evaluate these signings a bit more than half-way through the season it is important to grade them through the lens of the stated goals for the franchise: compete for the NFC South title in 2023.

If your argument is “the signing is bad because it prevented proper evaluation of another player” OR “the signing was bad because it prevented the team from properly tanking for a high draft pick” your issue should be with that strategy rather than the signing itself. That’s the topic of another article/conversation.

QB Baker Mayfield

Love him or hate him, Baker Mayfield has delivered starter-level play for backup money at the quarterback position for the Tampa Bay this year. For the low-low price of just $4 million Mayfield ranks 14th in the league in passing yards and touchdowns and he is tied for the 11th fewest interceptions thrown by qualifying quarterbacks. He is 18th in offensive grade for quarterbacks from Pro Football Focus.

While his underlying metrics are a bit more worrisome (he has more turnover-worthy plays than big time throws) and the sack avoidance he showed at the beginning of the season has come crashing back to earth as injury and sample size have worked against him, there is no doubt he has played as a Top 15-20 quarterback this year. And he has done all of this with a contract that’s average annual value is tied for the 37th highest in the league. That is the definition of backup money.

Here is but a small sampling of other quarterbacks with the same or greater AAVs (average annual value) than Mayfield currently: Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Taylor Heinicke, Marcus Mariota and Bryce Young. Mayfield has far outperformed all of these other players.

But how has he performed against other options that were available in the Bucs’ price range? There were six other veteran signal-callers who were available in free agency who all signed for similar deals. Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke and Marcus Mariota. All signed to be backups and so they will not compare in counting stats to Mayfield, who was signed to be the Bucs’ presumed starter.

Minshew has steered the ship well for a Colts organization that still has playoff aspirations despite losing rookie face-of-the-franchise Anthony Richardson. And Minshew just “outdueled” Mayfield in the Colts’ Week 12 win over the Bucs. But he has the same number of interceptions as Mayfield in almost 100 fewer attempts. He also has less than half of Mayfield’s touchdown tosses. There is no real measurable way that Minshew has outperformed Mayfield this year.

Heinicke was brought in as insurance in case the young Desmond Ridder didn’t pan out in Atlanta. Ridder hasn’t panned out and head coach Arthur Smith turned to Heinicke to try and right the ship. It didn’t go so well as Heinicke failed to complete 60% of his passes and the Falcons lost both of his starts. Smith and company then turned back to Ridder following their Week 11 bye week.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mariota, Bridgewater and Brissett have not been given opportunities to play, as the starters for their teams have remained healthy. Mariota is backing up current NFL MVP-favorite Jalen Hurts while Brissett is behind the 2023 version of Jameis Winston – Sam Howell. Bridgewater is sitting behind Jared Goff who has helmed the ship for the NFC North leading Lions. Dalton received one start as a replacement for number one overall pick Bryce Young when Young was unable to play due to injury. Dalton fared well in that start, throwing for 361 yards and two touchdowns with four big time throws.

There is a case to be made that some of these players had better recent track records when all were available in free agency. But only one, Dalton had a better track record than what Mayfield has accomplished this year. Dalton’s one start this year would compare favorably to any single-game performance Mayfield has delivered thus far in 2023.

With that said, the Bucs were not only looking for a starter to help them win this year. A secondary goal was to potentially find their quarterback of the future. Mayfield fit that mold more than the 36-year-old Dalton. Which makes the signing of Mayfield more understandable. Evaluating within the Bucs’ primary goal and resources this signing really has paid off big time. Mayfield has kept the Bucs competitive in the NFC South while staying within Tampa Bay’s budget.

LG Matt Feiler

Bucs LG Matt Feiler – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Matt Feiler was released from the Chargers as a cap casualty and because the team thought they had two younger options that could provide similar or better production than 31-year-old former undrafted free agent. The Bucs saw it as an opportunity to bolster the depth for an interior offensive line that was in flux. They gave Feiler $2.5 million and guaranteed him the starting left guard spot immediately upon signing him.

Feiler’s play was below average over the first seven weeks of the season before he suffered an injury that gave way to Aaron Stinnie taking the starting spot. His overall PFF grade is 49th out of 66 guards with at least 350 snaps. His pass protection was more solid as he ranks 30th with a 65.0 mark, but he has struggled (along with the rest of the line) to block well in the run game.

I think the Feiler signing was a good one overall as a move to bolster the depth of the offensive line overall. Where I take issue with the move is the guaranteed starter role. Feiler’s play over the past couple of years has been on the downturn as he has gotten further past the age of 30.

The Bucs already had two guards on the roster who had experience in the starting lineup in Aaron Stinnie and Nick Leverett. Both had shown in their limited sample sizes decent play. At the very least they should have been given an opportunity to compete with Feiler for the starting position. Stinnie has played well enough to wrestle the starting position away from Feiler while he was out injured.

While their overall performance has been close, perhaps if the Bucs had gone with an open competition Stinnie could have won the job in camp and provided the small boost over a larger time frame. But a borderline starter for the low, low price of $2.5 million is still a good signing and Feiler will be able to provide a good safety net if either of the Bucs now-starting guards or their right tackle goes down to injury.

Other options that were available to the Bucs in that price range were Nate Herbig, Isaiah Wynn and David Edwards. Wynn has been a part of a much-improved offensive line in Miami after signing a one-year, $2.3 million contract. But at the time of Feiler’s signing he was looking for money outside of the Bucs price range.

You gotta be up at least 5M’s fo me to een converse with ya. Grab bout 8 generations worth of y’all’s entire life savings then we can possibly rap. Possibly.

— I. Wynn (@iwynn77) March 8, 2023

Herbig has been a backup in Pittsburgh where he has made two spot starts. One of those was a solid performance against the Ravens while he had a much rougher go of it against the Texans. Edwards has filled in well as a reserve for Buffalo. Based on the limited sample size his performance has been better than Feiler.

K Chase McLaughlin

McLaughlin may end the season as the Bucs MVP. He has hit 19-of-21 field goal attempts this year with his only two misses due to blocks. He has also been perfect on all 19 of his extra points this year.

McLaughlin has not only matched former Bucs kicker Ryan Succop in accuracy from inside the 40 but has also added a big leg element to the Bucs kicking game. He is four of five beyond 50 yards with a long of 58.

He has delivered all of this for less than $1 million. This was an ace of a pickup if there ever was one.

RB Chase Edmonds

Bucs RB Chase Edmonds – Photo by: USA Today

Jason Licht brought in Chase Edmonds to provide quality, if not quantity, reps behind second year running back Rachaad White. Edmonds had averaged over four yards per carry in his five-year career while notching almost 1,100 yards receiving. Edmonds is on the smaller side and has never carried the full workload, but Licht wasn’t looking for him to do that when he signed Edmonds to a one-year $1,092,000 contract. Licht and the Bucs were simply hoping Edmonds could provide a higher floor than the disappointing Ke’Shawn Vaughn while also targeting a player with experience in a midzone running system.

Things have not worked out quite the way Edmonds or the Bucs have hoped. After showing promise in preseason Edmonds was injured in Week 2 after just four carries and 20 yards. Edmonds would go on injured reserve before returning in week eight. Since then, he has not shown the same juice. 15 carries and 28 yards has been all that Edmonds has produced on the ground since his return as he has been a contributor to the void behind White.

Looking across the landscape of running backs who signed for similar money, and it turns out you can’t find guys who can contribute quality snaps for nothing (at least in free agency). James Robinson, D’Ernest Johnson, Myles Gaskin, Darrell Williams, Royce Freeman…the list goes on and on of players who have either not been given any opportunity or have not done anything with limited opportunities.

For this deal the Bucs have gotten what they paid for and exactly what the league seems to expect for basically what amounts to the vet minimum, which is to say not much.

SS Ryan Neal

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid and Bucs SS Ryan Neal – Photo by: USA Today

Despite finishing 2022 as PFF’s highest graded safety Ryan Neal did not find a robust market awaiting him in free agency. He signed late in the summer with the Bucs for the veteran minimum. I hailed the signing as potentially one of the best low-key signings in the entire NFL and the lynchpin of a Tampa Bay secondary that had the potential to be one of the best in the NFL. Shows what I know.

Neal has been terrible for most of the season. His coverage lapses and poor pursuit angles have led to numerous explosive plays for Bucs opponents throughout the season. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has since cut Neal’s opportunities to early downs where he has still graded out as a positive in run support. But Neal has not lived up to the expectations the Bucs had when they signed him to be a starter this season.

Other safeties who signed for less than $2 million per year were Taylor Rapp, Rodney McLeod, Adrian Amos, DeShon Elliott, Duron Harmon and John Johnson III. Johnson, Rapp, Harmon and McLeod have barely played for their respective teams.

Amos has been a solid part-time contributor for a very good Jets defense. None have played enough or well enough to say definitively that they would have been better options than Neal, but the sheer disappointment of Neal’s play makes this a bad signing regardless of the other options on the market. Dee Delaney has been considerably better since taking over passing downs from Neal and Delaney was already in house.

DT Greg Gaines

Bucs DT Greg Gaines – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs brought Greg Gaines in for $3.5 million to help bolster an interior defensive line that was set to lose four players from the 2022 unit (at the time of Gaines’ signing Will Gholston was not re-signed and would not be brought back until the eve of training camp). Gaines offered positional versatility as someone who could play the three-technique or as a nose tackle to backup Vita Vea.

He had played a solid role next to Aaron Donald for several years and was brought into Tampa to be a rotational piece capable of maintaining a solid floor with limited upside. Overall, Gaines has provided just that.

His nine pressures in 176 pass rush snaps show he’s not a pass rusher, but he has logged the third most run defense snaps of all of the Bucs interior defensive linemen on one of the top run defense units in the NFL. Still, individually Gaines has not graded out well overall.

Other options that signed for similar money to Gaines were Andrew Billings, Khalen Saunders and Isaiah Buggs. Billings has easily been the best of the group with 18 pressures while providing solid run defense for the Bears as their primary nose tackle.

Saunders has provided slightly better play for slightly more money over a similar number of snaps. Buggs has been more productive over a much smaller sample size. But Gaines has served his purpose, providing a reasonable run defending floor and allowing Vea to get a breather without the interior of the defensive line imploding. His signing hasn’t been a revelation, but it also hasn’t been a failure.

Bucs Mostly Balled On A Budget

General manager Jason Licht had about $13 million dollars and six holes to fill. He found an extremely productive quarterback, one of the best kickers in the league, a replacement-level starting guard, a quality depth nose tackle, an injured backup running back and a bad safety. Overall, that’s not a bad haul for the limited resources available to him.

It was certainly a leg up from his 2022 haul of a variety of older players who had dealt with injury issues who wound up … injured.