Examining the outcomes of the Panthers dreadful trade-up strategy

Excluding the Bryce Young trade, Carolina has traded up with Top 100 picks four times since 2019 and the results have hampered a constantly-rebuilding team.

With the calendar turned to April, we are officially in “Draft Month”. To celebrate this blessed season I’m cranking out content centered on the Panthers recent draft history, the perils of trading up, the beauty of trading down, and slipping in another “BYU Homer” post telling the Panthers front office which former Cougar they should add to the roster.

This week we’re exploring the Panthers terrible recent history when trading up on draft day.

Before proceeding it’s important to highlight my primary role on this site as the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island. I live for trading down on draft day and loathe frittering away picks by trading up. The draft is just educated guesswork, a giant crapshoot. Analysis from Five Thirty Eight years ago statistically proves that no team can win the draft as there is “virtually no relationship between how well a GM drafts, relative to the average, from one year to the next.”

As new Panthers general manager Dan Morgan prepares to oversee the draft for the first time, I have just three words of advice:

Don’t trade up!

Let’s take a look at past Panthers drafts to further illustrate why Morgan & Co. will be better off just holding tight with Carolina’s current draft assets. Excluding the once-in-a-generation (hopefully) trade-up to No. 1 to draft Bryce Young last year, here are the results of the last four times the Panthers traded up on draft day with Top 100 picks.

2023 – Panthers receive No. 80 (LB DJ Johnson), Steelers receive No. 93 (TE Darnell Washington) and No. 132 (LB Nick Herbig)

Carolina used the No. 80 pick on linebacker DJ Johnson who appeared in 13 games in his rookie season and registered 16 tackles.

The Steelers invested the No. 93 pick in tight end Darnell Washington who had seven receptions for 61 yards over 17 games last year. Pick No. 132 became linebacker Nick Herbig who recorded 27 tackles, three sacks, and five tackles for loss last year on a defensive unit that made the playoffs.

In other words, Herbig outplayed the Panthers DJ Johnson last year playing the same position while the Steelers also ended up with a tight end in Darnell Washington to boot.

Best Player: Nick Herbig (but a small one-year sample size)

Trade Winner: Steelers

2022 – Panthers receive No. 94 (QB Matt Corral), Patriots receive No. 137 (QB Bailey Zappe) and 2023 3rd Round Pick (No. 76 LB Marte Mapu)

Oof. This one hurts.

The Panthers lit the No. 76 pick in the 2023 draft on fire to move up 43 spots to draft quarterback Matt Corral in 2022. The former Mississippi signal caller missed the entirety of his 2022 rookie season due to injury then was waived by the Panthers before the 2023 season. He now plays in the United Football League.

Meanwhile, the Patriots used the No. 137 pick to draft a quarterback of their own, Bailey Zappe, who has played in 14 NFL games with eight starts. While his numbers aren’t eye-popping – 2,053 yards, 63.2% completions, 11 TD, 12 INT – they aren’t bad for a mid-round pick who just completed his second NFL season.

Patriots linebacker Marte Mapu was a rookie in 2023 (in 2022 the Panthers traded away a 2023 third round pick, which became Mapu) and appeared in all 17 games with 204 defensive snaps and 217 on special teams. He recorded 18 tackles, one pass defended, and one forced fumble.

Best Player: Bailey Zappe

Trade Winner: Patriots

2020 Draft – Panthers receive No. 64 (S Jeremy Chinn), Seahawks receive No. 69 (G Damien Lewis) and No. 148 (DE Alton Robinson)

While Jeremy Chinn’s first two seasons with the Panthers were stellar with 224 total tackles, his effectiveness and fit in the team’s defensive scheme tapered off over the last two years. He was a virtual nonfactor in 2023 (30 tackles in 12 games) and signed as a free agent with the Washington Commanders this offseason.

The Seahawks drafted guard Damien Lewis who started all 61 of the games he played over the last four years. Ironically, Lewis signed with the Panthers this offseason on a four-year, $53 million deal. Alton Robinson’s NFL career lasted just two seasons with 44 career tackles.

Best Player: Damien Lewis

Trade Winner: Seahawks

2019 Draft – Panthers receive No. 37 (OT Greg Little), Seahawks receive No. 47 (DB Marquise Blair) and No. 77 (traded to Patriots, DE Chase Winovich)

Back in 2019 the Panthers were desperate to fix their left tackle issue, and desperation leads to unwise actions. Carolina gave up the No. 77 pick in order to move up 10 spots to draft Greg Little at No. 37. Little had very little impact (pun intended) during his two seasons in Carolina appearing in 14 games with six uneventful starts. After two years he was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a seventh round pick.

Marquise Blair, the No. 47 pick, played sparingly over three seasons with the Seahawks then, ironically, spent the 2022 season with the Carolina Panthers registering one tackle over three games.

The No. 77 pick the Panthers traded away became the best player of the three in Chase Winovich. In his first two NFL seasons Winovich racked up 74 tackles, 11 sacks, and 10 tackles for loss. But his career was soon derailed by injury and he announced his retirement in October 2023.

Best Player: Chase Winovich

Trade Winner: Seahawks