Fact/Opinion: Despite “Overpaying,” OBJ is the Right Move

With the NFL draft right around the corner, let’s look at some various Ravens topics with some fact/opinion.

Fact: Jalen Hurts signed a contract extension that became public yesterday. The contract is 5/$255M, with $110M fully guaranteed and a total of just under $180M in guarantees or, less than Kyler Murray got. The key numbers are that he will get about 180 million dollars in the first three years of the contract, which will allow him to re-negotiate after that and set himself up for further fully guaranteed money. In other words, he is likely to make more guaranteed money over the next five years than DeShaun Watson.

While we do not know the exact specifics in terms of the first three years, the deal the Ravens offered to Lamar Jackson was more than this and, that known offer was from September of 2022. We do not know if the Ravens have increased the number since then.

The reporting of these negotiations has been a joke. Yesterday, on the Pat McAfee Show, Ian Rappaport mentioned the $200M guaranteed the Ravens offered Jackson. Again, there are guarantees and full guarantees. The media, for whatever reason, has not been consistent on their reporting. They have talked about how the Ravens have only offered $133M guaranteed when what they offered was 133 fully guaranteed, which is the second most ever.

Opinion: It would be nice if these journalists, reporters, and analysts would do the proper apples to apples comparison instead of the old “give the man the money he deserves” nonsense.

As for Lamar, I have been saying its foolish that he turned down that deal and I am not sure that the Hurts contract changes anything for him. He will have to have a big change of heart to sign something similar. His goal should be the same: sign your five-year deal, get a ton of money in the first three years while allowing the Ravens to structure it to the point where you can keep bringing in more talent, as the Eagles did with the Hurts deal. Like Hurts, that should set him up to make more guaranteed money in the next five years than Watson will get.

Fact: The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr to a 1-year deal for 15 million guaranteed, with the chance to make an additional 3 million in incentives. Odell has not played since the Rams’ Super Bowl victory and is coming off a torn ACL.

Opinion: I really like this signing. It’s definitely an overpay and a desperate move for many reasons but I don’t have a problem with either. He brings a dynamic to the team, on and off the field, that this organization has rarely had on the offensive side of the ball. We will see where his talent is but I suspect that he will be able to do everything you need him to do, even if he isn’t quite as explosive as he has been in the past.

On top of that, he brings credibility to the offense, he is known as a great teammate and is highly competitive. His signing, in my opinion, means Lamar is back, which means the Ravens are going for it for at least the 2023 season. Signing OBJ to do that is a smart move, despite the “overpay.”

Fact: The Ravens pick 22^nd in the 1^st round of next week’s NFL draft and only have five picks overall. Their biggest needs include WR, CB and both lines.

Opinion: I suspect the Ravens have their eyes on two or three corners and a few WR for their first pick. If one of the tackles falls and they can move them inside for a year or two, that may be an option as well. Outside of that, I would be surprised if they went with another position early on unless a stud prospect falls (Jalen Carter?).

But do not be surprised by a trade down and do not be surprised if the Ravens look to add picks for NEXT year’s draft. This draft is not considered that strong, although it does have some good depth at the positions of need for the Ravens. That said, next year’s draft is said to be loaded and the Ravens looking to add picks to next year’s draft would not surprise me.

That being said, I am leaning towards them picking. I know EDC wants more picks but since this isn’t a strong draft, I think if one of his guys is there, he is staying and taking them. Of course, if three, four, or five guys are there, maybe he will drop back.

The player who I would most like to see drafted is Jaxon Njigba Smith.  In a recent interview, Brian Hartline, a WR coach for OSU, said JSN was the second best WR he has seen at OSU. He placed Marvin Harrison Jr (a top 5 pick next year) first and JSN second, ahead of guys like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

I expect Smith to be gone, so I am leaning towards a CB as what I would like to see the Ravens take. There are three or four corners that could all be there that would fit nicely with this defense, led by Joey Porter Jr and Deonte Banks.

Fact: There has not been a lot of free agent movement as of late in the NFL because of the draft and because the period to sign FAs and have them not count against your comp picks is coming up soon.

Opinion: I believe the Ravens want to bring back Marcus Peters and Justin Houston, two guys who obviously wouldn’t affect their projected 4^th round comp pick that they have coming to them next year but maybe also two guys they want to make sure they still need after the draft. Waiting until after the draft makes sense and I think both should be welcome additions to the team and give the Ravens some needed depth at those spots. Houston played at a high-level last year and while 2022 was a down year for Peters, he figures to be better another year removed from his ACL tear. He will basically be looking at a one-year pillow contract, so it won’t too cost prohibitive to sign him.

Fact: The reports are that DeAndre Hopkins is on the trading block and there are some Ravens fans who still hope the Ravens acquire him, even after the OBJ signing.

Opinion: Unless the Ravens can acquire him for a lot less than we think or it’s a first-round to second-round pick swap, I doubt this will happen. As I said before, next year’s draft is loaded, and I don’t think the Ravens send any 2024 picks in a deal for a player and I do not feel they will put that much cap space into WR. Now, if they can do something where it’s Devin Duvernay and maybe a Patrick Queen, that could work, but I tend to doubt Arizona wants to go that route.

Fact: Speaking of Patrick Queen, the decision on his 5^th year option is next month and the Ravens have to decide if they want to risk locking in that much money into the ILB position in 2024, with him and Roquan Smith.

Opinion: While Queen could get traded, he will be carrying a substantial number and we saw a lot of ILB go for a lot less than most were thinking this offseason. The Ravens cannot afford to have him and Smith on the team, so I think they either decline the option or trade him between now and then, a la Hollywood Brown.

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