Falcons snap Texans back to reality: What’s next for Houston?

After a nightmare three years, a magical two weeks were welcomed for the Houston Texans.

The team enjoyed massive national publicity after back-to-back blowouts over the Jacksonville Jaguars, 37-17, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-6. Coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud were both hot topic interviews on football shows around the country. Across NFL power rankings, Houston consistently found themselves ranked in the upper half of the league. Questions amongst the fanbase pivoted from rebuilding towards the idea of potentially winning the division.

The magic finally wore off some on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo hit a walk-off 37-yard field goal that sailed through the uprights like a blaring alarm clock on an early Monday morning. This came shortly after Stroud threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end Dalton Schultz with just 1:54 remaining. Ultimately, Stroud’s late efforts just weren’t going to be enough to save Houston this time.

Atlanta out-gained Houston 469 yards to 313 while dominating time of possession throughout the day 35:32 to 24:28. It was a fantastic performance by the Falcons defense and one that left Ryans’ defensive unit on the field for far too long.

Houston didn’t deserve to win that game.

Atlanta with 469 yards of offense to their 313. Atlanta won time of possession 35:32 to 24:28.

Unable to capitalize on 2 turnovers forced by the defense. Atrocious third down efficiency (4/13).

It was winnable. Just didn’t deliver.

— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 8, 2023

The fact the game was close was actually a testament to the performance of the defense. Houston forced two turnovers on the contest, but their offense failed to score a touchdown off of either gift. This, in addition to an abysmal 4-13 third down efficiency, left the Texans in a place where the defense was stretched too thin to remain effective late in the game.

The result was Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder had a career afternoon with 329 passing yards and a touchdown on 75.7% completion. It was enough to nullify an excellent effort to contain running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to under 3.5 yards per carry.

The loss leaves Houston in only a slightly different position than they were three days ago, but one that feels different. They’re only one game behind the division-leading Indianapolis Colts (3-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) while tied with the Tennessee Titans (2-3). Stroud is still trending to take home offensive rookie of the year award after throwing for 249 yards and one touchdown, once again throwing zero interceptions.

What should Houston fans learn from reality check that happened in Atlanta?

To begin, the Texans still have their fair share of growing pains to go through. There will be multiple steps between now and the next 10-win Houston team and it is unlikely to come this season. The roster is still not talented enough to overcome playing short of fantastic and that was visible on a day when, schematically, the offense struggled to find consistent answers.

Additionally, the coaching staff will now have to adapt to their first real test of adversity.

The Falcons rushed three or four pass rushers on a combined 80% of C.J. Stroud’s drop backs. The remaining seven or eight left in coverage were enough to challenge Houston’s group of pass catchers and, especially with Tank Dell exiting with injury, Stroud was often left without a perfect answer. Breakout receiver Nico Collins was puzzlingly absent from the game plan with only three catches for 39 yards on four targets.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will have to decide how the team pivots against this strategy they’re almost certain to see again. Houston was once again unable to establish the run with Dameon Pierce taking 20 carries for a measly 66 yards through the day. Can Houston expect their run game to improve as the offensive line becomes more cohesive, or will they pivot to finding more answers through the air?

Dameon Pierce is averaging 2.8 yards per carry and has a higher stuff rate (25%) than success rate (20.3%) on the ground.

Not saying that Houston can abandon the run, they can’t, but hard to believe this is the backbone of their best possible offense #WeAreTexans

— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 8, 2023

Sunday validated that Houston’s previous two wins were impressive. Jacksonville beat the Buffalo Bills in London while Pittsburgh overpowered Baltimore, two legitimate AFC contenders. They’re capable of playing with anyone on any given Sunday and they certainly have the quarterback that most franchises dream of finding.

This is still a team that has fair aspirations of going .500 on the season and has a serious chance to make some noise in a wide-open AFC South race. Stroud and fellow rookies Will Anderson and Henry To’oTo’o look like an incredibly impressive 2023 class for general manager Nick Caserio.

It just might not come together overnight for Houston.

Fans should be patient for the next steps that Ryans and Slowik put together, it will start next Sunday at NRG Stadium against the New Orleans Saints.