Fixing the Panthers roster, part 1: Re-signings and free agency

As Carolina’s fake general manager, here’s how I would free up cap space and nail free agency.

For the purposes of this two-part column, I’m the general manager of the Carolina Panthers. I will be guiding the franchise through 2022 roster moves, free agency, and the draft.

Now, I just want to be transparent and set expectations up front: I’m an educated football fan, not an NFL insider who knows everything about salary cap management, nor do I have comprehensive insights on every college prospect or NFL free agent. There are just way too many variables and details in running an NFL team to account for everything in a column like this. I’m putting myself out there a bit doing something this comprehensive, but I’m giving it my best shot.

My overall goal for 2022 is to make a playoff push in a wide-open NFC South, play out Sam Darnold’s $18.9 million contract, and acquire more picks in 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an 8-9 type record in 2022 (give or take a couple of games), but we’ll exit the season with a clear plan in place to make a splash in 2023.

Here we go with Part 1:

Start Brady Christensen at left tackle

Let’s begin with starting Brady Christensen at left tackle because of the ripple effects this decision will have on both free agency and the draft. I know a lot of Panthers fans are enamored with 2022 draft prospects Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, and Charles Cross at No. 6, and deservedly so, but I think Brady Christensen showed enough as a rookie to warrant a full-year look as a starter at left tackle.

If he becomes a capable starter he fills a major roster hole and his cap hits are just $1.2 million, $1.4 million, and $1.6 million over the next three seasons. The potential massive reward is more than worth the fairly minimal risk.

Plus, Carolina’s new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and offensive line coach James Campen are NFL veterans. As general manager I would expect them to help Christensen take a big step forward in Year 2.

Unlock $12.1 million in additional cap space

The Panthers currently have approximately $19 million in cap space but closer to $15.5 million when factoring in their 2022 draft class, per Spotrac. As general manager I would release defensive end Morgan Fox (+$3.1 million in cap space) and offensive tackle Cameron Erving (+$2.0 million) to clear up an additional $5.1 million in cap space. I seriously thought about releasing guard/center Pat Elflein, but that would only free up $2.4 million in cap space and he’ll likely be the starting center in 2022.

I would also look to free up around $7 million by judiciously restructuring a contract or two or adding some voidable years to a deal, which creates cap space today by pushing the cost into the future.

This “buy now, pay later” strategy can bite teams in the end. For example, Matt Paradis will count $8.3 million against the Panthers 2022 salary cap whether he plays or not due to voidable years built into the contract he signed in 2019 which was then restructured in 2021. Contract restructuring and voidable years are just parts of life in the NFL, but I would be careful with this approach in order to keep cap flexibility in 2023 and beyond.

These moves get us to around $28 million in functional cap space to re-sign current players and bring in free agents.

Players to re-sign and let walk

Haason Reddick is 27 years old and plays at a Pro Bowl level, which is exactly what I’m looking for in a player to retain. Pro Football Focus projects his next contract at 3-years, $35 million ($11.7 million per year) while Spotrac estimates his value to be at 5-years, $76.8 million ($15.4 million per year). I’ll somewhat split the difference and assume I can re-sign him at 4-years, $56 million ($14 million per year). To preserve a bit of cap space in 2022, I’d structure his deal to count $6 million against the 2022 cap, then spread the remaining $50 million over the next three years. (Remember, contracts feel “cheaper” in the future as the salary cap continues to rise year-over-year.)

I would also re-sign the following players:

• S Juston Burris (1-year, $3.5 million). He has been good enough for the cost over the last two years and he knows the system.
• DT DaQuan Jones (1-year, $3.5 million). Jones played really well on a 1-year, $4 million deal in 2021.
• LB Frankie Luvu (2-years, $4.25 million). Luvu was extremely productive in a reserve role in 2021.
• DE Marquis Haynes (2-years, $3 million). He provides solid depth at a low cost.
• Jermaine Carter Jr. (1-year, $1.5 million). Yes, he started last year, but he wasn’t starter caliber. I’d give him a 1-year, $1.5 million “take it or leave it” deal to be a backup in 2022.

Here are the notable players I’m not re-signing:

• CB Donte Jackson. He lacks Pro Bowl potential, is perpetually hampered by injury, and can probably get a 2-year, $20 million deal.
• CB Stephon Gilmore. Despite coming off a Pro Bowl season, he’ll be 32 next year. He can probably get a $14 million contract which the Panthers can’t afford. I know Gilmore wanted to come to Carolina, but I can’t imagine he’ll take a big enough hometown discount to stay.
• C Matt Paradis. He’s 32 and won’t be worth the cap hit in 2022.
• TE Ian Thomas. The 2018 fourth-round pick just never made an impact.

I really do like both Jackson and Gilmore, but I’m rolling into my 2022 with Jaycee Horn, A.J. Bouye (who was good in 2021), C.J. Henderson, Keith Taylor, and Myles Hartsfield holding down the cornerback spots.

After resigning these five players we have about $11 million to use in free agency.

Free agency: Get a solid guard and serviceable middle linebacker

The priority in free agency is to bolster the guard and middle linebacker positions.

At guard I’d swing big and try to land a solid player age 27 or younger like Alex Cappa, Austin Corbett, or Connor Williams. Between PFF estimates and Spotrac projections, these types of players will probably get deals of about 4 years, $40 million, which I would gladly pay. I’d structure the deal to count about $5 million against the 2022 salary cap and spread the remaining $35 million over the last three years.

Jermaine Carter Jr didn’t cut it as a starting middle linebacker, so in 2022 I’d try to repeat what the Panthers did in 2021 when they signed veteran Denzel Perryman to a very reasonable 2-year, $6 million deal (then foolishly traded him before the season started). This would mean signing someone like Kwon Alexander or Reggie Ragland (both are coming off 1-year, $1.3 million deals) or a similar veteran player. They would count around $2.5 million against the 2022 cap.

That only leaves about $3.5 million to sign maybe three more vets on one-year deals in the vein of what the Panthers did in 2021 when they brought in linebacker Frankie Luvu (1-year, $1.1 million), cornerback Rashaan Melvin (1-year, $1.1 million), and safety Sean Chandler (1-year, $920k).

And remember, signing free agents isn’t the only way to fill out a roster. Teams can also sign players to reserve/futures contracts if they aren’t on a roster at the end of the regular season. They can also bring in a host of undrafted rookie free agents. Teams just need to stay below the 90-man limit until Aug. 17 when rosters need to be cut down to 85. Their salaries only count against the cap if they make the roster and their salaries are among the Top 51 salaries on the books that year. As general manager I expect my scouts to find at least a couple of reserve/future guys and UDFAs to fill out the roster.

With players re-signed and free agents in the fold, it’s now time to look forward to the draft which will be covered in Part 2.