Four Downs: AFC Championship Edition

First Down: Ravens have the matchup advantages, Chiefs have Mahomes

Anytime Patrick Mahomes comes to town, the Chiefs are a viable threat. Mahomes is building a legacy of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The last time Mahomes played in M&T Bank Stadium he put on a show but fell 36-35 to the Ravens. What an evening that was, back in 2021. Outside of Mahomes, do the Chiefs have any matchup advantages? That’s a serious question.

The Ravens’ defensive front should have the edge over the Kansas City offensive line. This is especially true considering Joe Thuney won’t be able to play. The Ravens led the NFL in sacks this season. Justin Madubuike had 13, so that’s one big advantage for Baltimore. Travis Kelce is an elite weapon and Rashee Rice is an emerging wide receiver. The Ravens’ defensive backs have stopped much more talented sets of pass-catchers though. Advantage Baltimore.

The Buffalo Bills rushed for 186 yards against the Chiefs last week. You’d have to think the Ravens can emulate that success if not one-up it. Buffalo did a lot of good things against the Chiefs. They held the ball for 37 minutes of the divisional game. Hoarding the ball and running the football aligns with the Ravens’ strengths. The Chiefs don’t have an answer for Lamar Jackson despite having a great group of defensive backs that match the skill of the Ravens receivers quite well. The Ravens have the Jimmies and the Joes to win this one.

Second Down: The Rust has been knocked off

The long wait for the Ravens had an impact on their Divisional round game against the Houston Texans. The Ravens went into the half tied 10-10 and there were a lot of anxious fans sitting in M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens outscored the Texans 24-0 in the second half. It was a complete domination. The Ravens had to get loose and work out some kinks. The Chiefs are playing a Ravens team that has already reclaimed their groove. This was a normal work week for the Ravens. If the Ravens come out hot, it will give them an advantage.

On top of this, the Chiefs just had a tough battle with the Bills. The Bills made the Chiefs defenders do some grueling work on the road. This is the Chiefs’ third playoff game. It’s a Kansas City team that isn’t used to playing on the road in the postseason. This is a factor for this game at the very least.

Third Down: Watch out for the bag of tricks

The biggest advantage the Chiefs have outside of their exceptional quarterback play is their Hall of Fame-worthy head coach. Andy Reid will have his team ready to play. You know the Chiefs will have a well-scripted first 15-20 plays. You know the Chiefs will have something to throw at the Ravens that Baltimore isn’t ready for. The Ravens have to be sharp defensively and on high alert for the trick play. Reid is a master of making simple trick plays work by dressing them up in all sorts of motions and looks. The Chiefs lean into creativity. Kelce’s perfect lateral to Kadarius Toney (who got called back for an offensive offsides penalty) is a great example that the Chiefs can get unconventional at a moment’s notice. The Ravens have to be ready for anything.

Fourth Down: Pacheco is an X-Factor in this game

Isaiah Pacheco is coming off a game where he averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and was three yards short of 100 on the ground. He has six games this season with four or more receptions. In his last three games he’s had a 29-yard scamper and has broken out for a 37-yard gain. Pacheco is quietly one of the biggest X-Factors on the Chiefs.

All eyes will be on Mahomes. The Ravens can’t afford to be so aggressive chasing after Mahomes that Pacheco burns them on the ground. Discipline is the word of the day, it’s what the Ravens need to prevent the Kansas City running game from being a problem. The Ravens have had trouble with this at times this season. The most prominent example was their second clash with the Cleveland Browns, where Jerome Ford rushed for 107 yards on 17 carries. This is a concern that I haven’t heard much conversation about, so keep your eye on it.

Overall, the Ravens are the better team. The Chiefs are still the defending champions so it will be very interesting. If the Ravens get the win, they can tell the Chiefs to shake it off…

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