Horse Tracks: Finding a college QB who can excel at the next level is an impossible guessing game

Cognition tests? Combine scores? Game tape? Just how do you find the next NFL MVP among the college QB ranks?

Good morning, Broncos Country!

A recent article in The Athletic reported that one of the biggest sports agencies for NFL players and draft prospects is recommending their college clients not take the S2 cognition test that replaced the Wonderlic two years ago.

Leaked scores last spring revealed that Bryce Young scored a near-perfect 98% while CJ Stroud hit a “red alert” low at 18% – yet their rookie NFL seasons in 2023 were just the opposite as Young finished 2-14 as the starter and Stroud took his team to the playoffs.

“We understand that many of your teams use these tests or protocols as part of your prospect evaluation process, however our recent experience with these exams has been less than positive,” read an email from Athletes First sports agency to coaches, per The Athletic. “Specifically, the fact that certain results and performance were leaked publicly last year demonstrates that there truly is no confidentiality with these tests. It is not right for a player’s intelligence, aptitude or mental processing to be subject to public discussion and ridicule — no other job interview carries the same scrutiny.”

Currently, 15 teams use the S2 test, which was first applied in 2016 to measure the processing of split-second information and the speed of response time. Unlike the Wonderlic, which measures reasoning and problem-solving in everyday life, or the Athletic Intelligence Quotient test, which measures decision-making and spatial awareness, the S2 evaluation is meant to gauge how players think on the field.

It was co-founded in 2014 by two neuroscientists and former college athletes, and is famously a test in which Patrick Mahomes was one of the top two performers in 2017.

Carolina Panthers owner and hedge fund billionaire David Tepper is a big believer in the science, hence his controversial move to take Young as the No. 1 overall pick last year rather than Stroud.

Whatever one’s opinion on the test’s accuracy, it is at least a quantifiable measure. And if a team sticks only to “the eye test” and/or “gut feelings,” evaluations can be equally unreliable as a predictor of success.

During Super Bowl week, Broncos head coach Sean Payton made an interesting comment while being asked his plans at QB for Denver next year (which, in true Payton fashion, he spoke long enough with an unrelated story to virtually ignore the question).

But in doing so, he used Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes as examples of guys who “get in their car and use the 50 buttons that are available” compared to guys like himself who just turn on the power button, see that the temp is set to 72 degrees and then drive off.

The keen processing a quarterback has to do at the line means breaking down the defense and choosing a play in just “six or seven seconds.”

“It’s the hardest thing for us to evaluate,” Payton admitted.

So how do you evaluate a college quarterback with any kind of confidence that he will transition to the pro level with success?

Asking Google reveals a plethora of articles all trying to answer the question that eludes so many teams – including the Broncos.

And all with about as much chance at accuracy – or inaccuracy – as the next.

Suggestions include:

• Isolate a QB’s individual statistics, such as a quarterback’s adjusted completion percentage (measured by PFF)

• Consider sack avoidance, particularly the pressure-to-sack rate, which measures the percentage of a quarterback’s pressured dropbacks that result in a sack.

• Pay attention to the system a QB plays in, noting whether it’s a system designed for easy success (such as a lot of play action) and ignore the throwing session at the Combine. As one scout wrote: “The media makes a big deal about the throwing session, but it’s useless. The player makes three throws to players he never has worked with then goes to the back of the line and waits five or six minutes to throw again. It’s ridiculous, in my opinion. We get NOTHING out of it.”

• Go with the “Brock Purdy model” over the “Trey Lance model.” While Lance was big, strong, fast and smart, he had very little experience starting at QB. Purdy, on the other hand, was not particularly athletic or talented but he had four years of college starting experience at Iowa State. It’s the old-school Bill Parcels model – get a guy “who has started 30 games and won 70 percent of them.”

FInding the next Patrick Mahomes or even Brock Purdy in the NFL Draft is about as much luck as skill for an evaluator, and Payton will need a little bit of both heading into April as the Broncos desperately need to hit on a QB sooner rather than later.

Broncos/NFL News

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