Houston Texans 2021 Draft class review

Time to issue the 3-year term report cards

With the NFL draft now a mere couple of weeks away, fans look to that time with anticipation. Mock drafts o’ plenty dominate the sports interwebs. Then comes the actual draft followed by the immediate grades/evaluations. Some will have been deemed to made the franchise-altering draft, while others will have people wondering “uh, y’all did what?”. Yet, in the NFL, the accepted rule of thumb is that it can take three years to figure out if a draft pick will really pan out in the NFL. By then, said player should be well acclimated to the NFL game, and their play should reflect whether a team made a smart pick.

For the Houston Texans, the 2021 Draft came at one of the most tumultuous times in franchise history. It would be Nick Caserio’s first draft as GM. The Texans were coming off an incredibly deflating 4-12 season, and saw incredible turnover with the firing of two head coaches in one season. Jack Easterby still ruled within halls of NRG (not a good thing). Normally, a bad record would portent great draft options, but due to the miscalculations of BO’B (The GM), the Texans were without their 1st or 2nd round picks, and found themselves with little cap room for free agents. At least the Texans had a franchise quarterback…until they didn’t. Deshaun Watson first wanted out of Houston, but before the team could persuade him to stay, or get a deal in place for a trade, 24 counts of sexual assault came out of the woodworks, leaving everyone in limbo.

With the context in mind, here is the review of the 2021 draft class for the Houston Texans:

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

3rd Round: QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

With the aforementioned Deshaun Watson situation, the Texans needed a QB. They had Tyrod Taylor from free agency, but likely he would not play a full season (spoiler alert, he didn’t). The 2021 class held many top prospects, but Houston was not going to sacrifice its limited draft capital to move up to get one of those. Thus, when Houston finally came to the podium on Day 2, they called out Davis Mills, who did have a season’s worth of starting experience at Stanford, an intriguing arm, and one of the longest necks in recent memory.

His sitting-and-learning phase lasted all of 6 quarters. After Taylor injured his hamstring, Mills was pressed into immediate action on the road against an AFC contender in Cleveland, and it went about as badly as you would expect. Mills did build some after that horrid start, mainly in his play down the stretch leading the Texans to a 2-2 record. Franchise QB he was not, but he did show enough for the rebuilding Texans to consider giving him another season as the starter while they focused their 2022 draft on other areas. Given the lack of quality QB prospects in 2022, that might have been Mills’ greatest contribution, as it didn’t force Houston into mortgaging draft capital. Mills entered the 2022 as the starter, but he could not build upon the 2021 finish. He would mix moments of potential with inept and ineffective play. The 2022 season did see him get a upset win at Tennessee, but finishing the year in a QB rotation with Jeff Driskel. Coming into 2023, it was certain that Houston would be drafting its next QB.

Houston got him with Stroud, and it was little surprise that Mills opened the 2023 season as QB2. Mills did see the field in those times when Stroud had to come off for any in-game injury, or when the games were out of hand. Yet, when CJ Stroud went out with a concussion against the Jets, and would miss the next two games, the Texans went with Case Keenum as the starter, managing a 1-1 record. Mills did play in both games, but did nothing of significant against the Titans, and was the garbage time QB in a game against Cleveland that was well out of hand. If that wasn’t an indictment of what the coaching staff thinks of Mills as a starting QB, then nothing else is. Mills is entering the final year of his rookie deal and likely in Houston. After that, the journeyman back-up role awaits, at best.

Grade: D+/C-

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

3rd Round: WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

If there is anyone who validates the idea of waiting 3 seasons to grade a draft pick, this is the one. The Houston Texans maneuvered their way up into the 3rd round to select the big receiver out of Michigan, looking at him as a possible mid-round receiving weapon to pair with then WR#1 Brandin Cooks. His first two seasons in Houston proved a mixed bag, showing flashes, but never really establishing himself as even worth the mid-draft maneuvering to get him. Coming into the 2023 season, Collins had a chance to step up, but it was far from a sure thing.

Then the 2023 kicked off. Likely helped by having a prime QB option in CJ Stroud, Collins had one of the top breakout seasons in the league, going off for 80 receptions/1297 yards/8 TDs. His 2023 season out-produced his previous two seasons combined. While excelling at NRG, he saved his best game for the de facto play-in game at Indianapolis in the last game of the season (9 receptions/195 yards/1 TD). He was the leading receiver for Houston in their playoff run, and in theory, should only continue to evolve with another year as part of the Slowik/Stroud offense (and a contract year to boot). How he meshes with new WR Stefon Diggs rates as an enviable 1st world problem.

Grade: B+

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

5th Round: TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

Arguably, the TE spot had been more an obligation than an actual weapon for the team since the end of the Owen Daniels run. Other TEs would show promise, but they could not consistently make the TE position a weapon. Enter Brevin Jordan. Seen as a 5th round steal, many felt that he could evolve into a real TE receiving threat. Blocking was not expected to be a strong suit for Jordan, but his athleticism could offer the team a much-needed weapon.

However, in his 3 years, Jordan never became that consistent weapon. Like Collins, he could show flashes of potential, and it seemed he would offer his best play in December. Even with CJ Stroud, Jordan did not make the leap that his draft classmate Collins did. Perhaps his main highlight was the spectacular 76-yard catch-and-run TD against Cleveland in the Wild Card playoff game that put Houston up for good in the game. Also, a play emblematic of Jordan’s Texans career: Showing off some unbelievable skill, but only in limited flashes.

Grade: C-

Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

5th Round: LB Garret Wallow (TCU)

The 1st defensive player drafted by Caserio, Wallow made it a 2nd consecutive draft that Houston took a TCU defender. Unlike Blacklock, Wallow would not have any significant pressure to start. Seen as a bit undersized for a NFL LB, most figured on Wallow to excel on special teams. For the most part, that is how his Houston career went. He was a camp cut in August 2023, only to be re-signed to the practice squad before the start of the season. Wallow briefly joined the active roster in November, but returned to the practice squad for a short spell before the Titans plucked him to be on their active roster to finish out the 2023 season.

Grade: D-

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

6th Round: DT Roy Lopez (Arizona)

The last member of the rookie Caserio draft, Lopez came in as a potential sleeper. Given the problems that the squad had stopping the run the past few seasons, there were certainly opportunities for advancement for the Wildcat Alum. Lopez did impress during his rookie training camp and worked his way into the DL rotation. His stats weren’t eye-popping, and while the Texans’ run defense wasn’t great, Lopez showed promise. Then came the 2022 season. 2022 would be among not only the worst run defenses in Texans’ history, but among the worst of all time in the NFL. Lopez was not solely responsible, but he was clearly not the answer. The Texans cut Lopez at the end of the 2023 preseason. The Arizona Cardinals signed him to their roster in September, where he played out the 2023 season, with little significant action to report.

Grade: D

Overall: This draft class is impossible to grade fairly without factoring all that impacted the team in that draft season. Throw in the fact that the team was on the road to nowhere, and expecting this class to morph into the second coming of the Texans 2006 class was extremely unlikely. However, at least every player made some contribution to the team in their time in Houston. Mills headlined it, but Collins’ breakout season and the tantalizing potential of Jordan save this class from extremely low marks. Overall, not a terrible 1st draft for Caserio. In comparison with the disastrous 2020 draft, a massive improvement.

Overall Grade: C+

As always, this is one commentator’s opinion. What say you? Feel that the 2021 class was better or worse? Let your (respectful) takes be heard on the interwebs.