How Can Ravens Quiet the Roaring Lions?

Defense

Don’t Take the Bait

The Lions offense has gone from the hunted to the hunters in the last few seasons. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has Detroit operating near the top of the league, as indicated both by a few traditional stats (yards per play, passing yards) and some advanced ones (EPA/play, EPA/pass, explosive play rate, sack rate). Translation: this won’t be a walk in the park, even for a Ravens defense that has mostly swatted down opposing offenses with ease this season.

The gameplan starts with discipline against a balanced Lions offense that uses personnel diversity and motion to bait defenses into showing their hand and/or flowing too far in the wrong direction. Johnson runs one of the most personnel-diverse offenses in the league, with 56.46% of snaps in 11 personnel, 25.83% in 12 personnel, and 9.96% in 21 personnel. The Lions are generally effective out of all three, but their EPA/pass and explosive play rate both jump significantly from 11 personnel to 12 and 21 personnel.

That’s largely because defenses typically match heavy personnel, something the Ravens should avoid on Sunday. With David Montgomery still sidelined, the Lions are missing their best between-the-tackles rusher, making heavy boxes unnecessary to slow down their ground game. In fact, Detroit’s offense has been at their worst against six defenders in the box this season, to the tune of -0.09 EPA/play, with an -0.23 EPA/rush that ranks 27th in league. They’ve similarly struggled from under center, with a -0.25 EPA/rush, so even in the face of traditionally run-heavy alignments, Mike Macdonald has to trust his defensive front and avoid packing the box.

Backline Communication

The defense also has to be wary of the eye candy of the Lions’ pre-snap motion. Detroit runs motion on 62.3% of snaps, and a player is in motion at the snap 32.7% of the time, both the third-highest marks in the league this year, per ESPN.

That motion is crucial to the Lions’ success on deep passes, helping Jared Goff manipulate matchups and forcing defenses to coordinate their response on the fly. While WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown obviously earns his fair share of targets,, Johnson is sure to scheme up deep shots for Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond as well. Reynolds has been particularly deadly downfield this year, with an explosive catch rate of 48%, first downs on 18 of his 19 receptions and an average of 17.9 yards per reception. In addition, second-year WR Jameson Williams is being worked into the offense following a suspension and caught a 45-yard TD a week ago.

The Lions like to run Hiccup on offense, and it was fun to see how they defended it in Week 6 pic.twitter.com/J6D84VMwFI

— Shawn (@SyedSchemes) October 19, 2023

Goff has been excellent with the deep ball this season, completing 70% of his passes of 20+ yards. He’s not just leading all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks; the gap between him and second-ranked C.J. Stroud is 14.3 points, the same gap between Stroud and 16th-ranked Zach Wilson. Goff has also committed just one turnover-worthy play on those deep balls, so he’s been as precise as can be down the field.

To put it mildly, coverage and communication are going to have to be on point. Goff is often able to identify an exploitable matchup or a vacated area of the field quickly – his 2.56-second average time to throw is the 9th-lowest in the league – so Baltimore can’t get caught napping off the snap. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen in particular will have to walk the fine line between adjusting to the Lions’ motion to defend against what it could bring without overcommitting and leaving an open path elsewhere. Geno Stone is poised to step in for Marcus Williams once again, so the duty of communicating across the backline to avoid busted coverages will also fall to him, along with the returning Kyle Hamilton.

Send the Rush

Another way to keep the Lions from beating you over the top is by forcing Goff to get the ball out even quicker than normal. The Lions’ offense is excellent against four-man rushes, leading to a 0.37 EPA/play, 56.67% success rate and 26.67% explosive play rate, all top-five marks in the league.

That stems from their tough, well-coached offensive line, a strength the Ravens can only hope to overwhelm with numbers. Against 5 or more pass rushers, the Lions’ EPA/play drops to 0.11 and their explosive play rate drops to 14.55%. However, they still maintain a success rate of 54.55% against the blitz, indicating that Goff gets the ball out quick but not deep when faced with pressure. The Ravens have to counter with blitz and coverage designs that don’t just attack Goff, but also disrupt his early throwing lanes. St. Brown will often be Goff’s safety valve in case of third-down blitzes with a target share that goes from 26% on early downs to 34% on late downs. Whoever is defending him when blitzes are called should be ready for common blitz-counter hot routes, especially given Goff’s ability to diagnose pressure and coverages using motion.

From there, it’s a matter of solid tackling against screens and other YAC opportunities when Macdonald dials up a blitz. St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are both slippery runners who can be difficult to track down in the open field, something the Ravens struggled with against Jaylen Warren and Tyjae Spears.

With Hamilton back in the fold and Marlon Humphrey getting another game of reps, though, Baltimore should be able to clean up the tackling on Sunday.

Offense

Get Heavy Early

While Detroit’s offense has been getting the – Lion’s share – of attention this season, their improvements on defense are no less responsible for their 5-1 record. They’re among the top 10 defenses in EPA/play, EPA/rush and EPA/pass, with the notable exception of a 9.87% explosive rate that ranks 20th in the league.

Most of that success has been out of five-DB formations, where they’re allowing a league-best -0.37 EPA/pass. That figure rises to 0.40 EPA/pass with four DBs on the field, which, along with a 13.33% explosive play rate, rank in the bottom five league-wide.

The Ravens should roll out heavy formations with multiple tight ends (and Patrick Ricard) to force the Lions to match personnel. Detroit only uses five DBs against 12 personnel 24.07% of the time, and never does so against 13 personnel. This also plays into one of Baltimore’s strengths this season: passing out of heavy formations. They’re just 24th in EPA/pass out of 11 at -0.13 EPA/pass, but rank in the top 10 of EPA/pass in 12, 22, 20 and 21 personnel.

Passing out of heavy formations will mean that secondary pass catchers like Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar will have to step up. Defenses already key on Mark Andrews in the passing game, especially when there’s only one wideout on the field. In the past, Likely has demonstrated an uncanny ability to sell a block before releasing downfield, and Kolar’s 6-foot-6 frame is excellent running the seam.

Attack the edges of the field in the red zone

The Ravens went from pacing the league in red zone conversions in Weeks 1-4 before hitting a near-complete roadblock over the last two games. Six Justin Tucker field goals may have been enough to beat the Titans in London, but it’s unlikely that will be enough to get past a roaring Detroit team. The Ravens will have a bounce-back opportunity on Sunday to a Lions defense that ranks 11th in red zone defense this year, allowing 57.9% of opponent red zone drives to end in a touchdown.

The Ravens tried to run into the Titans’ light boxes in the red zone last week and consistently came up a few yards short, and a repeat strategy against Detroit will likely yield similar results. The Lions average 6.54 defenders in the box (5th in the NFL) and operate with a heavy box 47.33% of the time (8th), with most of those heavy boxes coming on first and second down.

As a result, Monken will have to attack the edges of the field on early downs in the red zone, using jet sweeps, tosses and even sprint-outs to move traffic away from the center of the field. Jet sweeps have been one of the Ravens’ most consistent red zone plays over the last few years, but the ball has to go to a more physical runner like Devin Duvernay who can turn the corner, put his shoulder down and blast into the end zone. Tosses could be an opportunity to get Keaton Mitchell out in space where he’s most devastating, to help the rookie settle in to his first NFL regular season action.

On sprint outs, Monken has to scheme players other than Andrews as the primary target. He is frequently Jackson’s first read on those plays, making it too easy for defenses to stop. Again, Likely’s ability to slip behind defenses and Kolar’s size should be used here to take advantage of all of the attention on Andrews (and Jackson’s legs) in the red zone.

Slow Down Hutch

The Lions only blitz 23.87% of the time, mostly because they’re not very good at it! They allow a significantly higher EPA/play, success rate and explosive play rate when blitzing compared to their dominant use of four pass rushers, and their 5.41% sack rate when blitzing is fourth-worst in the NFL.

Detroit has been able to get pressure with four rushers due a breakout season from 2022 no. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson, who has racked up 39 QB pressures this season, almost double that of the next-most effective pass rusher in Detroit. Shutting Hutchinson down will be vital to keep the Ravens’ passing game in rhythm, especially in giving Jackson enough time for his deep shots to develop. Hutchinson mainly lines up over the right tackle, though the Lions will occasionally flip him to the blindside or have him execute a twist to attack the interior of the defense.

The Ravens have some version of the recipe to slow down a defender who is the lynchpin of their defense’s pass rush. Myles Garrett struggled to impact the game in the Ravens’ 28-3 win over the Browns, but Monken failed to keep the Steelers’ T.J. Watt from making his presence known the following week. Some of Watt’s success can be chalked up to Morgan Moses’ injury, but Monken still did not provide Patrick Mekari or Daniel Faalele with enough help via Ricard or chipping tight ends. Monken should look to disrupt Hutchinson’s rushes early in the game to keep him from establishing a rhythm from which he can set up his pass rush moves, and be ready to quickly go back to providing help if the second-year edge starts to heat up.

The Ravens found the most success against Garrett by throwing the kitchen sink at him with as many different looks and concepts as they could. Hutchinson’s inexperience will render him even more susceptible to the eye candy of pullers and motion, as his aggressive nature doesn’t lend itself to deciphering and diagnosing. He attacks, and the Ravens should take advantage of that to get him up the field and out of the play, leaving his teammates out of position behind him.

Matchup to watch

Kyle Hamilton vs. Sam LaPorta

Tight end Sam LaPorta has been one of the breakout stars of the Lions offense this year, with the 4th-most receptions and 3rd-most receiving yards among NFL tight ends this season. His athleticism and versatility should be countered by Hamilton, who’s likely itching to get on the field after his early ejection last week.

LaPorta splits out wide or into the slot frequently, where his size and sneaky route-running make him a tough matchup for linebackers and smaller slot defenders. Hamilton, though, can follow LaPorta wherever he goes and take him on in the rushing or passing game like few other NFL defenders can.

52.4% of LaPorta’s targets come in the short middle of the field, where he has converted eight first downs and made four of his six contested catches. That translates to a lot of in-breaking and sit routes, and Goff’s ball placement helps LaPorta shield the ball from defenders. Instead of flying in at high speeds to jar the ball loose, Hamilton will have to use his length to maneuver around Laporta and disrupt plays over the middle of the field.

All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sumer Sports and Arjun Menon’s The Scout.

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