How Much Is Bucs WR Mike Evans Actually Worth?

I decided to wait a few days after the announcement from Mike Evans’ agent about him and his client’s deadline for an extension with the Bucs to give my full thoughts. Call it hubris in that I am hoping my words don’t get lost in the sea of spilled ink regarding the situation.

According to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, Evans and his agent are hoping to get an extension done with Tampa Bay on what will likely be his last big chance to cash in with a major contract in the area of Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp’s 3-year, $81 million pact he just signed this offseason.

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds gave his take on what may be holding up the negotiations in a recent Pewter Pulse video. I thought I would take you through why the contract comparisons could be the reason the Bucs may be reluctant to acquiesce to Evans’ reported ask and find a bit more of a reasonable compromise.

Kupp’s contract made him the third-highest-paid receiver in terms of average annual value at $26.7 million per year. Currently, Evans is playing on the final year of the five-year, $82.5 million contract he signed in March of 2018.

At the time, it made Evans the second-highest paid receiver in the NFL. And Evans is once again looking to hit that same stratosphere. But is he really worth it? There are several factors that you can look at to determine the answer to that question, but the long-and-short of it is, no, he isn’t.

Mike Evans Does Not Garner The Targets Necessary To Justify His Ask

There are currently only four receivers who make an average of $25 million or higher. And that club is reserved for the receivers who are the engines of their team’s offenses. These are the guys who average 130 targets or more per season.

Tyreek Hill averaged 124 targets per season in the three years leading up to his contract extension last year. Once the Dolphins inked him to his $120 million deal, they targeted him 167 times in 2023.

Davante Adams averaged 145 targets per year in the three years leading up to his extension. Cooper Kupp averaged 134 leading up to his.

Only A.J. Brown has proven to be the exception to this rule. In the three years leading up to his extension last year, he averaged just 95 targets per year. But as soon as he signed with Philadelphia following his trade from Tennessee, he received 137 targets.

It’s not that Evans was never that guy. From 2015-2017, he averaged almost 150 targets per year. That led to his massive deal in 2018.

But over the last three years, Evans has come in a tier lower than the aforementioned receivers, averaging 114 targets per season. The emergence of Chris Godwin, who was a third-round pick in 2017, as the Bucs’ No. 2 receiver (or No. 1B to Evans’ No. 1A status) is one of the bigger reasons. And that was in the pass-happiest offense in football, which means his target share is significantly lower than some of the other premier receivers in the league.

There is good reason to think in the Bucs’ new offense, which will be far more balanced in terms of rushing attempts, that target share is likely to continue to dwindle. So it’s hard to justify paying Evans Kupp-type money when he won’t receiving the amount of targets worthy of a $25 million-plus receiver.

Mike Evans’ Age Is Working Against Him

Bucs WRs Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The vast majority of the receivers who have signed recent mega-deals have done so coming off of their rookie contracts. The deals they are signing start when the player is in his mid-20s and end prior to his 30th birthday. A.J. Brown’s deal started in his age-25 season. Same with D.K. Metcalf. Deebo Samuel and D.J. Moore were both 26 at the start of their $20-plus million contracts, while Terry McLaurin was the old man of the group at 27.

Just four receivers topping the AAV (average annual value) list signed at an age north of 27. Tyreek Hill was 28 at the start of his four-year contract. Kupp will be 30 at the beginning of this year. Similarly, Davante Adams was 30 last year when his new deal with the Raiders began. And Stefon Diggs was 29 last year when his new deal with the Bills began.

None of these players were 31 like Evans is set to be when his next contract starts. But some might say, “Is there really a big difference between 30 and 31 years old?” The issue isn’t the difference in age when the deal starts. It’s the difference in age for the year you get. If Evans gets the three-year deal Kupp just got, it will be for seasons when he’s 31, 32 and 33 years old, while Kupp is being paid for his age 30-, 31- and 32-seasons.

The real difference is that you are replacing an age-30 season with an age-33 season. The average stat line for 30-year-old starting receivers last year was not fantastic at 61 catches for 665 yards and three touchdowns.

Now, if you want to know what a 33-year-old receiver season looks like, there are two case studies from last year. They were Julio Jones and Cole Beasley. Bucs fans know them well as both players suited up for Tampa Bay. Neither of them came close to any of those numbers.

Mike Evans’ Closest Statistical Comp Is D.K. Metcalf

There have already been several comparisons made about Mike Evans and Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf due to new offensive coordinator Dave Canales bringing a Seahawks version of the offense to the Bucs. Canales was most recently the quarterbacks coach in Seattle, where Metcalf plays, and also coached the Seahawks’ receivers.

Metcalf and Evans have similar builds, as Metcalf is 6-foot-3, 229 pounds, while Evans is 6-foot-5, 231 pounds. Both use their size to help them win downfield. Metcalf has a career yards-per-catch rate of 13.8 and average depth of target of 13.1 yards, while Evans hits 15.3 and 15.0 with his career averages, respectively. Evans should occupy the Metcalf role in the Bucs offense – primarily as a split end (X receiver), but also seeing more time in the slot than in years past.

Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – Photos by: USA Today

The three years prior to Metcalf’s extension, he was targeted 345 times, catching 216 passes for 3,170 yards and 29 touchdowns. Evans, over his three most recent seasons, has remarkably similar numbers with 341 targets resulting in 221 catches for 3,174 yards and 33 touchdowns.

Metcalf was rewarded for his production with a three-year, $72 million contract extension. This put his AAV at $24 million, which is $2.7 million less than Kupp earned. And a reminder, Metcalf’s deal is for his age 25-27 seasons, not his age 31-33 seasons like Evans. Metcalf’s deal has to represent the absolute ceiling for what Evans can get from the Bucs – or anyone else for that matter.

Creating a Contract Using D.K. Metcalf As The Ceiling

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

I can’t quantify leadership, heart, or being a great teammate. By all accounts, Mike Evans is one of the greatest to ever do it in all of those areas, especially in Tampa Bay, where he is adored by fans as the franchise’s greatest offensive player.

If you want to argue that the value of those things would make up for the age difference between D.K. Metcalf and Evans, I wouldn’t agree, but I would understand. But using Metcalf’s deal as the ceiling, here is a hypothetical contract the team could work up with Evans with the help of the ever-useful contract constructor over at Over The Cap.

Metcalf’s contract was for three years and $72 million with a $30 million signing bonus and $58.2 million guaranteed. I am going to create something just short of those numbers. Two things to bear in mind with this exercise.

No. 1, I am working off of the premise that the Bucs miraculously decide to pull the trigger on this deal before Evans’ Sept. 9 deadline. That means his 2023 salary figures come into play.

No. 2, I will use a fourth year (voidable) in the contract that will never come to fruition to help the AAV look bigger than the real numbers. This is something used more frequently these days in contract negotiations.

For example, the final year of Tyreek Hill’s contract calls for him to earn almost $44 million in salary. The Dolphins will terminate that contract before that ever happens. In actuality, Hill’s deal is for three years and (surprise, surprise) $75 million!

With this model, we convert almost all of Evans’ 2023 salary plus his roster bonus to a signing bonus. That, plus $16 million in a new signing bonus, gets prorated over 2023-2027 and helps drop his current cap number from $23,698,500 to $16,230,500. This has the added benefit for the team of opening up almost $7.5 million in needed salary cap room for 2023.

Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Evans also receives fully guaranteed salaries of $7.5 million and $12.5 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with vested guaranteed roster bonuses of $2.5 million each year. In 2026, he would have $7 million of his $20 million salary guaranteed, but the Bucs could cut Evans at that point and still save $9.633 million off of what his cap hit would be if he remained on the roster.

My deal, as proposed, would give Evans an AAV of $23.375 million. That would be $675,000/year less than Metcalf, and rank 8th in the NFL – and it would be higher than the $20 million AAV that teammate Chris Godwin currently has. His guarantees would be a total of $57.5 million, which would also rank eighth in the league.

This deal would give Evans the opportunity to finish his career as a Buccaneer, give the team cap savings for 2023 in a fan-pleasing move and allow them to walk away before the season when he turns 33 if they want to do so. It’s a bit of a win for everyone.

But I still don’t think they will do it – nor do I think they should given Evans’ age and amount of targets he’s in line to receive.

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