How successful are quarterbacks drafted on Day 2?

Not as successful as those drafted in Round 1

We recently looked at the NFL success rate for quarterbacks drafted in Round 1, finding that since 2010 only 37.2% turned into solid starters or better. Now, let’s look at quarterbacks selected on Day 2 during that same time period.

Day 2 QBs

2010

Round 2

No. 48 — Jimmy Clausen (Carolina Panthers

Round 3

No. 85 — Colt McCoy (Cleveland Browns)

2011

Round 2

No. 35 — Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 36 — Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

Round 3

No. 74 — Ryan Mallett (New England Patriots)

2012

Round 2

No. 57 — Brock Osweiler (Denver Broncos)

Round 3

No. 75 — Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
No. 88 — Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)

2013

Round 2

No. 39 — Geno Smith (New York Jets)

Round 3

No. 73 — Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

2014

Round 2

No. 36 — Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)
No. 62 — Jimmy Garappolo (New England Patriots)

2015

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 75 — Garrett Grayson (New Orleans Saints)
No. 89 — Sean Mannion (St. Louis Rams)

2016

Round 2

No. 51 — Christian Hackenberg (New York Jets)

Round 3

No. 91 — Jacoby Brissett (New England Patriots
No. 93 — Cody Kessler (Cleveland Browns)

2017

Round 2

No. 52 — DeShone Kizer (Cleveland Browns)

Round 3

No. 87 — Davis Webb (New York Giants)
No. 104 — C.J. Beathard (San Francisco 49ers)

2018

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 76 — Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh Steelers)

2019

Round 2

No. 42 — Drew Lock (Denver Broncos)

Round 3

No. 100 — Will Grier (Carolina Panthers)

2020

Round 2

No. 53 — Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)

Round 3

None

2021

Round 2

No. 64 — Kyle Trask (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Round 3

No. 66 — Kellen Mond (Minnesota Vikings)
No. 67 — Davis Mills (Houston Texans)

2022

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 74 — Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons)
No. 86 — Malik Willis (Tennessee Titans)
No. 94 — Matt Corral (Carolina Panthers)

2023

Round 2

No. 33 — Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)*

Round 3

No. 68 — Hendon Hooker (Detroit Lions)

Totals

There have been 32 quarterbacks selected on Day 2 of the draft since 2010. To categorize them, I used the same Hall of Famers/Franchise QBs/Solid starters tiers used in the Round 1 quarterbacks post. I added a ‘Solid backups/occasional starters’ category, but hat we are really looking for are quarterbacks who fit neatly into ‘solid starter’ or above.

Here is how it breaks down.

Future Hall of Famers: 1 (Wilson)
Franchise QBs: 1 (Hurts)
Solid starters: 3 (Dalton, Kaepernick, Carr)
Solid backups/occasional starters: (Foles, Smith, Glennon, Garappolo, Brissett, Rudolph, Lock, Mills, Ridder)
*Levis is To Be Determined

Wilson and Hurts show that it is possible to find a top-tier quarterback on Day 2, though not likely. If you want to argue about whether or not Wilson is a Hall of Fame quarterback, fine. That’s not the point, though. For our purposes, all we are trying to identify is how many of these quarterbacks land in the ‘solid starter’ or above categories.

I have just five of the 32 quarterbacks drafted on Day 2 as ‘solid starters’ or more. That’s just 15.6%. In our look at quarterbacks drafted in Round 1, we found that 37.2% of the quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 landed in the ‘solid starter’ or above category.

That is quite a drop from Day 1. So, even if the NFL isn’t good at identifying and developing Round 1 quarterbacks, it is still far more likely that you will get a quality starter if you take one in the first round rather than trying to find one on Day 2.