How the Jaguars’ wild card scenario looks after Week 16

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one win away from being AFC South champions for just the second time in the division’s history.

A loss to the hobbled Tennessee Titans in Week 18 would be an embarrassing and frustrating end to a suddenly exciting and promising regular season. It would almost definitely be the end of the Jaguars’ playoff hopes too.

Jacksonville has a pathway to a wild card berth, but it’s an unlikely one. After the Los Angeles Chargers’ win on Monday Night Football, there’s only one scenario left where the Jaguars earn a spot in the postseason after losing to the Titans:

1. Jaguars beat the Texans (Week 17)
2. Patriots beat the Dolphins (Week 17)
3. Seahawks beat the Jets (Week 17)
4. Titans beat the Jaguars (Week 18)
5. Jets beat the Dolphins (Week 18)
6. Bills beat the Patriots (Week 18)
7. Ravens and/or Browns beat the Steelers (Weeks 17 and 18)

If that scenario came to fruition, the Jaguars, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, and potentially the Steelers and Raiders as well, would all be tied at 8-9. Jacksonville would sit at the top due to a 7-5 record in games against AFC opponents. No other team in the logjam would have a conference record above .500.

It’s very possible that the door to a wild card berth will already be closed by the time the Jaguars and Titans meet at TIAA Bank Field in Week 18. But for now, there’s still a way into the playoffs if things go sideways.