How the Steelers free agent dreams could become reality in 2024

A look at realistic contracts for the most expensive players coveted by Steeler fans

As we ramp up to the NFL’s annual free agent signing frenzy that officially begins with the start of the league year at 4:00 p.m. ET on March 13, it’s time to consider the salary cap hits associated with potential additions to the Steeler roster.

This isn’t a discussion of who the Steelers should try to sign, but should rather serve as an example of how high-priced free-agent signings could realistically affect the salary cap based on how teams have structured similar contracts in recent years.

This also isn’t a discussion of which players should be cut or restructured to create cap space for 2024. The reality is that IF the Steelers really, really, really wanted to create $56 million in cap space to go shopping, it could be accomplished with a handful of moves.

According to Spotrac’s Salary Cap Manager tool, restructuring the contracts of TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Alex Highsmith could free up $36 million by pushing that cap hit onto future years’ cap hits. Additional cap space could also be created by extending Cam Heyward, but that is “less wise” than the restructures for players under the age of 30 Releasing Allen Robinson would increase available cap space by another $10 million, as would a trade of Diontae Johnson.

When fans hear of the expected contract value of a pending quality free agent, there is a knee-jerk response somewhere along the lines of, “No way the Steelers can afford him. We only have X amount of cap space!” Others hold the opinion that it doesn’t matter because “The salary cap isn’t real.” As with most things, the truth lies in the middle.

The salary cap does exist, so it is technically a real thing that teams must abide by. However, the salary cap is simply an accounting function of how player contracts are structured. Those contracts can be reconfigured through extensions and restructures, with or without the addition of void years (years the player won’t be under contract which allow the spreading of signing bonuses over more years for a smaller yearly cap hit). Think of it as a business using various tax laws to its advantage to move taxable income from one year to the next. (Everybody loves a little tax accounting conversation this time of the year, right?)

First-year cap hit of free agent signings

As a general rule of thumb for free agent acquisitions, you can figure on the first-year cap hit as 10% of the total value of a four-year or five-year contract. Using Spotrac as a source for contract info, here are three examples from last year.

• Lamar Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million deal in 2023, and the cap hit for the first year was $22.15 million (8.5% of the $260 million).
• Javon Hargrave signed for four years, $84 million. His first-year cap hit was $6.6 (7.9%).
• Orlando Brown signed for four years, $64 million. His first-year cap hit was $10.4 (16.3%).

A rule of thumb for three-year contracts is 15% of the total value. We have three recent Steeler signings that fit this model.

• In 2022, center Mason Cole signed for three years, $15.75 million. The first-year cap hit was $2.6 (16.5%).
• Also in 2022, right guard James Daniels signed for three years, $26.5 million. The first-year cap hit was $4.2 (15.8%).

In 2023, left guard Isaac Seumalo

• signed for three years, $24 million with a first-year cap hit of $3.6 (15%)

Two-year contracts aren’t as cap-friendly, as there aren’t as many years to spread the signing bonus over. A rule of thumb here is 33% of the total value.

• Patrick Peterson signed a contract for two years, $14 million, with a first-year cap hit of $4.2 (30%).
• Elandon Roberts signed for two years, $7 million and a first-year cap hit of $2.3 (33%).

How prized free agents would affect the Steeler salary cap in 2024

Now that we’ve established what to expect from a first-year cap hit standpoint, let’s use Spotrac’s Projected Market Value (or PFF, if Spotrac doesn’t list one for that player) and look at free agents that you may have seen people fantasize about in the comments sections. As this is all an exercise in estimation, we will round numbers for simplicity.

• QB Kirk Cousins: Market Value 3 years, $120 million. First-year cap hit $18 million.
• QB Baker Mayfield: MV 4 years, $110 million. First-year $11 million.
• C Lloyd Cushenberry: MV (per PFF) 4 years, $57 million. First-year $6 million.
• C Aaron Brewer: MV 3 years, $16 million. First-year $2.5 million.
• WR Mike Evans: MV 4 years, $95 million. First-year $10 million.
• WR Tyler Boyd: MV 3 years, $26 million. First-year $4.0 million.
• DT Christian Wilkins: MV 4 years, $81 million. First-year $8 million.
• ILB Patrick Queen: MV 5 years, $93 million. First-year $9 million.
• CB L’Jarius Sneed: MV 4 years, $65 million. First-year $7 million.

What should the Steelers do? That’s certainly up for debate, but assuming for a minute that Spotrac’s and PFF’s Market Values are accurate, what they could do (if they wanted) is to make the five moves listed previously to free up $56 million in cap space and use that to try and sign the highest priced free agents listed: Kirk Cousins, Lloyd Cushenberry, Mike Evans, Christian Wilkins, Patrick Queen, and L’Jarius Sneed.

There are arguments against making these aggressive (and expensive) roster moves in free agency. The health uncertainty of Kirk Cousins and the possible unavailability of Christian Wilkins, if Miami uses the franchise tag on him, immediately come to mind. As of now, however, they are set to be free agents. There are a couple of weeks left before the signing frenzy starts, so go ahead and dream big on Omar Khan inking some splash moves.

Assuming that Omar Khan could maneuver the cap to sign any of the available free agents, who would you hope the Steelers would prioritize in 2024? Let us know in the comments!