Is the Jaguars’ need for man cornerbacks ‘blown out of proportion’?

When the Jacksonville Jaguars hired Ryan Nielsen to be their new defensive coordinator, it seemingly signaled that a significant shift in philosophy, scheme, and personnel was on the way.

While the Jaguars defense under Mike Caldwell leaned heavily on Cover 3 zone coverages, the Atlanta Falcons primarily employed Cover 1 coverage under Nielsen. In layman’s terms, Jacksonville had three defensive backs divide responsibility for the deepest part of the secondary into thirds, while Atlanta had players mostly cover receivers one-on-one with a solitary safety patrolling the middle of the secondary.

So, the Jaguars better get some cornerbacks who can cover man-to-man, right? Not so fast, according to general manager Trent Baalke.

“This idea that [Nielsen’s] a full man-coverage guy is fully blown out of proportion,” Baalke told reporters Thursday. “I think I’ll let him speak on scheme. It’s really a zone-based system, not a man-based system but a lot of times when you play zone, and you play it well it turns into man with the match concepts and everything else.

“Schematically, there’s going to be a change. It’s not going to necessarily affect the type of personnel we look for. The thing that’s are neat is the preparation that Ryan had put in to getting ready for the interview, knowing our roster the way he did, talking through how he sees those pieces being utilized in his defense.”

It’d seem that Baalke believes the group of cornerbacks already on the Jaguars’ roster are plenty capable of playing in Nielsen’s scheme, which — in his words — is “really a zone-based system.” Yet, statistics don’t exactly support that statement.

The Falcons under Ryan Nielsen played single-high coverages at a similar rate to the Jaguars in 2023, but featured more man coverage.

Falcons Defense

Cover 1: 35.5% (2nd)
Cover 3: 14.9% (31st)

Jaguars Defense

Cover 1: 13.9% (28th)
Cover 3: 35.8% (10th)#DUUUVAL

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 22, 2024

How often do teams have both outside corners in press coverage?

1. Chiefs, 41%
2. Falcons, 35%
3. Bills, 33%
4. Ravens, 28%
5. Lions, 26%

…

28. Jaguars 8%
29. Raiders 7%
30. Commanders, 4%
31. Dolphins, 4%
32. Panthers, 3%@NextGenStats

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 25, 2024

The numbers also don’t speak well to the Jaguars defensive backs making a smooth transition to more man coverage. Cornerback Tyson Campbell was in man on 17 percent of his coverage snaps this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and was credited with allowing a 154.4 passer rating when targeted.

Opposing passer rating in man coverage was above 100 for Tre Herndon, Devin Lloyd, Montaric Brown, Foye Oluokun, and Gregory Junior too.

Perhaps Nielsen’s scheme will yield better results for Campbell and co., especially if the defense is able to produce more pressure up front. But Baalke’s insistence that Nielsen employs a zone-based system that won’t force the team to change the type of players it looks for is a head-scratcher.

Prior to the hire of Nielsen, cornerback looked like it’d be near the middle of the Jaguars’ offseason needs. Baalke doesn’t seem too concerned about bumping it up the list of priorities.