Is this the final year of onside kicks in the NFL?

After adopting new kickoff rule, a modified onside kick seems to be next change coming for NFL

The NFL recently adopted a rule change that modifies kick offs in order to bring an impact play back into the game while balancing player safety:

Standard kicks will still begin from the 35 but everything else will look different.

The 10 kick coverage players will line up at the opposing 40, with five on each side of the field.

The return team will have at least nine blockers lined up in the “set up zone” between the 30- and 35-yard line with at least seven of those players touching the 35. Up to two returners will be allowed inside the 20.

Only the kicker and two returners will be allowed to move until the ball hits the ground or is touched by a returner inside the 20.

Any kick that reaches the end zone in the air can be returned, or the receiving team can opt for a touchback and possession at the 30. Any kick that reaches the end zone in the air and goes out of bounds or out of the end zone also will result in a touchback at the 30.

Rich McKay, chairman of the NFL’s competition committee and CEO of the Atlanta Falcons, joined The Rich Eisen Show to discuss the new kick off rule in addition to other rule changes considered by the competition committee at the 2024 annual league meeting. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay is also now on the committee. McKay outlines why the league moved towards this new format for kick offs, but he also hints at another significant change coming in 2025: replacement of the onside kick.

Read: Rams draft options for kick returner

On traditional kick offs, with so much room now between the kicker and the blockers/defenders, teams must declare beforehand when they plan to initiate an onside kick. This takes away the element of surprise from the kicking team, and we’ve seen surprise moments on the NFL’s biggest stages such as Sean Payton’s gutsy move in Super Bowl 44 in hopes of stealing a possession away from Peyton Manning.

McKay suggested that since the new kick off rule was so substantial it didn’t make sense for the committee to also seriously consider onside kick changes in the same year, but he feels the Philadelphia Eagles’ proposal will gain steam at next year’s meetings.

What is the alternative to onside kicks?

Just as the league borrowed their new kick off rule (or it was just very heavily influenced) from the XFL that has since merged with the USFL to form the UFL, it makes sense to also copy their approach to onside kicks—which replaces the low probability kick with a football play:

In the UFL, they have adopted an onside scrimmage alternative that is a 4th & 12 from the 28-yard line. Basically, this is a one-down attempt to gain 12 yards. The “make it and take it” slogan is just that, a successful conversion of the play is equivalent to a recovered onside kick. Since successful onside kicks are recovered around 10 yards, the 40-yard line as the line to gain is roughly equivalent. The difference between the onside kick is that the down continues until it is dead, whereas when a kicking team player recovers a kick, the ball is dead at that spot. This can allow the “kicking” team to advance, but also the “receiving” team can cause a turnover and also advance.

If teams have already lost the element of surprise with respect to onside kicks, it may be time to transition away from the play all together. This “football play” also allows fans to see the most important player on the team, the quarterback, in some of the game’s biggest moments instead of a kicker.