Jason Licht’s Bucs Draft Guardrails

What are Jason Licht’s draft preferences for the Bucs?

Inspired by Jack Duffin, who has long compiled this information about the draft classes of the Browns, we can look for tendencies in the players that Licht drafts to inform our projections for who he may target in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Before we get into the analysis, here is a look at each player he has drafted in rounds 1-3 along with their Relative Athletic Score and age on the date of opening day their rookie year for each of Licht’s 10 drafts in Tampa Bay from 2014-23.

Positional Tendencies

Jason Licht has drafted from every position group at least once within the first three rounds (including special teams – for those of you suffering from PTSD on the Roberto Aguayo pick, please send your therapy bills to Pewter Report). The two positions he has drafted most is cornerback and interior offensive line. Both have comprised five of his 34 Day 1 and Day 2 picks (15%).

Discounting the special teams pick, five position groups are tied for the least number of early picks used on them. Linebacker, offensive tackle, quarterback, tight end and wide receiver at two apiece.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Breaking it down by round and we see Licht focuses on premium positions in round one. Of his nine picks in the initial round, 78% have gone to positions considered premium (quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, outside linebacker/defensive end, defensive tackle and cornerback). The lone exceptions to that rule have been Devin White (inside linebacker – 2019) and O.J. Howard (tight end – 2017).

The only position he has drafted multiple times in the first round has been interior defensive line with Vita Vea in 2018 and Calijah Kancey in 2023.

In the second round we start to see where Licht has positional trends. He likes to target the secondary and offensive line in this area. One third of his 15 second-round picks have been either cornerbacks or safeties. Another quarter have been offensive linemen.

All told, those two position groups comprise nine of his picks in the second round (60%). And Licht has found a lot of value with these selections. Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet both proved to be very good picks, and Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke are promising names that may join those two. Carlton Davis III should also be considered as a good pick given the fact that he was a six-year starter and helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV.

The third round is where Licht has taken his swings on running back with Rachaad White, Charles Sims and Ke’Shawn Vaughn all being selected there.

Relative Athletic Score

Relative Athletic Score is a method developed by Kent Lee Platte that looks at the athletic testing measurements and creates a single score on a one to 10 scale. He has done some extensive research to prove that very few players with low RAS scores ever become good players. Now that does not mean just because a player has a high RAS does not mean they will be a good player either. But it has shown they have a better chance than someone who has a low score.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, DT Calijah Kancey and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Three of Jason Licht’s 34 early round draft picks lacked enough testing for an official RAS score (kicker Roberto Aguayo, offensive tackle Luke Goedeke and inside linebacker Kendell Beckwith).

Licht has stuck to drafting high-end athletes in the first round for the most part. Of his nine selections in the first round just one had an RAS score under seven. That selection was for a player at a position where athleticism isn’t always a huge factor for success – quarterback Jameis Winston. But of the non-quarterbacks, seven of the eight players Licht has selected in the first had RAS scores north of 9.00. Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans actually missed that cut-off, but still had a solid 7.83.

Interestingly, Licht’s process looks to be evolving as he leans into high-RAS scores more. His lowest three RAS score draft picks in the first round were his first three. Since 2016 he hasn’t selected a player with an RAS under 9.25.

Jason Licht’s First-Round Draft Pick RAS Scores

TE O.J. Howard, 2017 – 9.76
OT Tristan Wirfs, 2020 – 9.74
DT Calijah Kancey, 2023 – 9.59
DT Vita Vea, 2018 – 9.53
ILB Devin White, 2019 – 9.33
OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, 2021 – 9.30
CB Vernon Hargraves III, 2016 – 9.27
WR Mike Evans, 2014 – 7.83
QB Jameis Winston, 2015 – 4.25

Jason Licht’s Second- and Third-Round Pick RAS Scores

Past the first round, Licht softens his RAS guardrails, looking to take more chances on players who are less athletic but show higher football IQ. His second-round range, which spans 13 players with recorded scores, spreads from 5.87 (safety Justin Evans) to 9.92 (guard Ali Marpet). Five of the 13 still maintained relative athletic scores higher than 9.00, six above 8.00 and 10 above 7.00.

Jason Licht’s Age Preferences

Bucs general manager Jason Licht isn’t opposed to drafting an older player in the first round, but he is less likely to do so. Five of his nine first-round draft picks have been under 22 on opening day of their draft year. And only one player was over the age of 23 (defensive tackle Vita Vea, 2018). The average age of player’s Licht has selected rises with each subsequent round.

First Round – 22.08

Second Round – 22.54

Third Round – 23.26

Nine of his 15 second-round picks were 22 years old on opening day, with three under that age and three over. Last year’s second-round selection, Cody Mauch was the true outlier as he was almost 25 on opening day. The COVID exceptions stemming from 2020 still reverberate among draft-eligible players even through this year’s draft.

Licht’s third-round selections feature just one player under 22. That pick was a big hit as it was Chris Godwin in 2017. That year Licht went young with multiple third-round selections. Kendell Beckwith was also selected in the third round that year and he was Licht’s second-youngest player selected in the third.

Applying These Ranges To This Year’s Draft Class

Using these guardrails, we can look at players projected to be available when the Bucs pick in the first round and create some logical projections on who Licht might target or stay away from. Using Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator, I have charted 15 players based off their average draft position by age and RAS score to see who might be more or less likely to be a Bucs target.

Immediate Rule Outs

Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin looks to be on the outside looking in. He falls outside Jason Licht’s typical guardrails for both Relative Athletic Score and age parameters. Similarly, West Virginia’s Zach Frazier is over 23 and did not qualify for an RAS score due to lack of testing.

Interesting Players Who Check All The Boxes

There are three players on this list who have RAS scores over the 9.25 threshold who are less than 22 years old. This would make them prime targets for Jason Licht and the Bucs. Wide receivers Adonai Mitchell of Texas and Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU, as well as edge rusher Chop Robinson of Penn State. All three play positions the Bucs have drafted in the first round under the Licht era.

These measurements are not meant to be absolutes. But they do give a logical pool of players who are more likely to be targeted by Licht and the Bucs. In part two of this research, I’ll look at each of these players to see if their skillsets/production lends themselves to being Bucs targets.