Klint Kubiak’s fantasy impact: Saints quarterbacks

How will Kubiak’s new offensive system effect the Saints QBs when it comes to fantasy football?

Since New Orleans Saints football never stops so why should we? We may have just watched the Kansas City Chiefs hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy but it’s never too early to start thinking about fantasy football. NFL teams don’t wait around until August to start planning for the football season so why should you wait on the fantasy season? It’s the moves that are made all throughout the off-season that shape these teams and player situations. This is the time of year when NFL organizations are finalizing their coaching staffs: general managers, head coaches, coordinators and even positional coaches. Each of these may have an impact on your favorite fantasy targets.

The Saints were in the thick of it to start the off-season in this exact category with the firing of long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and the subsequent hiring of Klint Kubiak. This long-awaited move comes with the anticipation that the offense will look vastly different in 2024 than it did in the last few Carmichael years. So how should we expect the Saints weapons to look when it comes to fantasy football next season? Let’s take a look at Kubiak throughout his coaching years and forecast how he might impact each positional group moving forward.

Quarterbacks:

Derek Carr: One of the most polarizing players from this past year among Saints fans but from a fantasy perspective he was probably what you thought he’d be. Not many came into the 2023 season expecting Carr to be much more than a decent QB2 for your team and he didn’t disappoint. Carr was fine for fantasy for what you needed him to be. While he did end the season on a bit of a roll: QB7 or better in three of his last four games including QB1 in Week 18, it was tough to trust Carr week to week. Carr has never been a runner, so his fantasy production needs to come from passing touchdowns. Averaging a shade over 24 passing touchdowns a year throughout his career doesn’t move the fantasy needle. 30-35 touchdowns through the air are essential for a pocket passing QB to be fantasy relevant.

Kubiak really started to hit his coaching stride in 2019 when he became the QB Coach for the Vikings for two years followed as the Offensive Coordinator for one season. During this time Kirk Cousins was under center for the Vikings. Those three seasons’ Cousins averaged 4000 yards and 31 passing touchdowns. As QB Coach and the Offensive Coordinator Kubiak played a big factor in Cousins’ success. During that three year stretch Kirk Cousins was QB12 on average which is a solid starter for your team.

Next stop for Kubiak was the Denver Broncos as their Pass Game Coordination/QB Coach in 2022. It’s not advised to look directly at the 2022 Broncos offense as it might lead to partial blindness. It’s best to shield your eyes a bit but let’s see. It was bad. Alright were done looking. There were massive expectations coming into this season for the Broncos with Russell Wilson join the team, but things did not pan out. This all does not fall on Klink Kubiak. Although Kubiak took over as play caller towards the end of the year, he was in the shadow of Nathaniel Hackett’s and his offensive system. No need to look much further into Russell Wilsons production this year. I’ll save you the horror.

2023 is season we care the most about when it comes to Kubiak and the effect on the New Orleans Saints Quarterbacks. Kubiak had the luxury of attending the Kyle Shanahan School of Offense while he was the San Francisco 49ers’ Pass Game Coordinator this past season. Quarterbacks have thrived in this QB friendly offensive scheme for years. Dating back to Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons days to the Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers days and finally this past year with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy looking like he should have been #1 pick Mr. Relevant in the draft. Let’s focus on this past 2023 season while Kubiak was in the building. Starting 49ers QB Brock Purdy enjoyed resounding success when it came to fantasy. 4,200 yards, 31 pass touchdowns earned Purdy the QB6 in total points and QB8 in points per game on the year. As a high-end starter for your team, you could plug Purdy into your lineup with confidence every week and you were very satisfied.

On the surface, it appears that everywhere Kubiak went and played a factor with the QB there was success to be had (again we excluding the Broncos). This bodes well for Derek Carr in 2024 for fantasy. Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy and Derek Carr all have similar playing styles: pocket passers who don’t run all that much. With Cousins and Purdy both consistently exceeding 4000 passing yards and that valuable 30+ passing touchdown mark, we can expect Carr to have comparable season. If we see Carr put up these numbers, then we can pencil him into our lineups as a back end QB1 with solid week to week production. There’s even some upside here as well. The expectation is that Kubiak soaked up as much Kyle Shanahan offensive knowledge as possible this past year. So, the door is wide open for Kubiak to grow as a play caller and offensive mind and truly elevate the QB position to greater heights (see Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa this season). While you still might be able to get Derek Carr in your draft next year as a QB2 due to name fatigue, he should very well achieve QB1 numbers with some upside baked in.