Listing the probabilities the Lions will pick a player at each position

The Detroit Lions could select many positions in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. Which positions are in need of talent, and how will they be addressed?

The 2024 NFL Draft is just around the corner and the Detroit Lions have a lot of potential routes to explore with their draft picks. From adding starting-caliber talent to depth across multiple positions, general manager Brad Holmes and his staff will look to turn the Lions into not just contenders, but champions. Free agency was part of the equation, and the draft is the next building block.

Looking at the Lions’ roster as it stands after the first few weeks of free agency, it is worth wondering how the Lions will use their draft capital. Are there some positions in dire need of a promising young rookie? Are there some positions where free agents might be the best course of action? Are there some positions already set for the season to come?

Let’s take a look.

Quarterback

Why the Lions will draft one:
If the Lions are unable to come to extend Jared Goff, there is a chance 2024 could be his last with the Lions—if they can’t agree to an extension, how likely are they to sign him as an unrestricted free agent in 2025? If Detroit views an extension with their starting quarterback, they could be in the market for a young replacement. With Hendon Hooker’s age (26) and lack of any professional experience, betting on him to take over for 2025 would be a bold move.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
By all accounts, the plan is to keep Goff in Detroit long-term, even if an extension hasn’t materialized in early 2024. Drafting a quarterback early would almost certainly derail those talks. Plus, the Lions are picking 29th overall, so they would need to move up for the prized prospects. As for late-round quarterbacks, there is no reason to draft one with Hooker already in the fold. The Lions invested a third-round pick in Hooker, so it would make little sense to move on from the high-ceiling quarterback after a redshirt year everyone knew was coming. Let him play in training camp and preseason first.

Odds the Lions draft one: 5%
The Lions might be in the market for a third-string quarterback, but I doubt that comes via the draft. Barring a massive slide from a prospect, it doesn’t make sense to add another project.

Running back

Why the Lions will draft one:
Running back is a historically fragile position in the NFL, and the Lions already saw that in 2023 when Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery each dealt with injuries. Additionally, the Lions have a fairly steep drop-off from RB2 to RB3—next in line is likely Craig Reynolds or Zonovan Knight. When you consider the impressive Lions offensive line, it would be a beneficial situation for nearly any rookie.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
The Lions already invested significant draft capital in Gibbs, and he and Montgomery formed arguably the best tandem in football. Even though both backs missed time last season, the other was more than capable of picking up the slack. A third running back to the mix, in a notably weak draft class, would be unlikely to even see the field barring an emergency.

Odds the Lions draft one: 20%
I think a late-round flier on a running back makes sense for the Lions, but I would be shocked by anything on Day 1 or 2.

Fullback

Why the Lions will draft one:
The fullback is a dying art, but the Lions remain one of the few teams in the NFL to utilize one. However, with Jason Cabinda a free agent, the Lions have zero fullbacks on their roster right now. Given how much the Lions love to run the football, adding a fullback would fit that mentality. This draft class also features a dynamic fullback prospect in Jaheim Bell.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
You could argue one of three things. Firstly, the Lions might not need a fullback in 2024. The Lions’ offensive line is talented enough that an extra lead blocker might be moot, and the NFL is shifting away from pure blockers. Secondly, the Lions had success with Malcolm Rodriguez in the fullback role when Cabinda was hurt, and given the logjam at linebacker, he might be a candidate to swap sides of the ball. Finally, even if the Lions end up using a fullback, they could very well get a capable one as an undrafted free agent.

Odds the Lions draft one: 5%
The Lions might desire a fullback with actual fullback college experience, but the value just isn’t there to draft one. If the Lions were to draft Bell, it would be for his role as a tight end, not a pure fullback.

Wide receiver

Why the Lions will draft one:
You can never have too many receivers. The Lions have a star in Amon-Ra St. Brown plus a player poised for a breakout in Jameson Williams. With Josh Reynolds possibly leaving in free agency, the Lions have a void beyond their top two options. Could Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, or Antoine Green fill in? Certainly. Would an early pick have a higher ceiling? Almost certainly. Imagine how good the Lions offense would be with another electric rookie.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
How many mouths can the Lions’ offense feed? With St. Brown, Williams, Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta commanding a sizable number of targets, how much would be left over for a rookie? Reynolds was fourth on the team in targets, but Williams is almost guaranteed to take a majority of those snaps. Peoples-Jones had 839 receiving yards in 2022, so it isn’t hard to imagine him rebounding as well. Green might also be ready for a larger role after essentially redshirting his rookie season.

Odds the Lions draft one: 70%
Wide receiver is a position teams should draft on an annual basis, regardless of the round. Holmes has also drafted a receiver in each of his three drafts thus far, and I wouldn’t rule it out again this year. I’m currently on the fence about drafting one 29th overall, but I could see it on Day 2 or later.

Tight end

Why the Lions will draft one:
The Lions struck gold with LaPorta, but that doesn’t mean the Lions have to settle for just him. Ben Johnson has done a phenomenal job of scheming tight ends in the Lions’ offense, and adding another dynamic threat at tight end would only the offense more dangerous. Brock Wright is best used as a blocker, but even then he is not an elite talent. James Mitchell, meanwhile, has failed to make a mark thus far as a pro.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
The Lions applied the restricted free agent tender of $2.985 million on Wright, a fairly sizable sum for a tight end with fairly modest production. This likely highlights their confidence in Wright’s role on offense, so a replacement might not be at the forefront of the Lions’ agenda. Much like at wide receiver, there will be diminishing returns by drafting a player behind LaPorta.

Odds the Lions draft one: 30%
It’s hard to say what kind of tight end the Lions would be looking for, whether it’s a receiver to complement LaPorta or a blocker to challenge and maybe usurp Wright. They could even go after a tight end/fullback hybrid as previously mentioned. I think the Lions will look to fill other holes first, but a tight end isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Offensive lineman

Why the Lions will draft one:
I’m merging the offensive line into one group because the Lions can justify help across the board. Their top tackle depth is currently Dan Skipper with little else behind him. With Taylor Decker a free agent after 2024, grooming a young replacement would make sense. Kevin Zeitler will rightfully earn a starting role at guard, but with a one-year deal and entering his age-34 season, his future is far from guaranteed. The Lions like Colby Sorsdal and Kayode Awosika, but they haven’t shown enough to label them as obvious heirs. As for center, the only backup the Lions have is Graham Glasgow, one of their starting guards.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
The Lions have an elite offensive line as is, and they might feel more confident in their backups than we expect—and less confident in the draft class than we expect.

Odds the Lions draft one: 95%
There is almost no chance the Lions walk away from the 2024 NFL Draft without an offensive lineman—in fact, I could easily see two taken. If I had to guess, the likeliest option is a center with guard versatility, followed by a tackle.

Defensive end

Why the Lions will draft one:
In 2023, the Lions pass rush was carried by Aidan Hutchinson. Factoring in the departures of Julian Okwara, the retirement of Romeo Okwara, and Charles Harris remaining unsigned, a sizable chunk of the Lions’ edge group will be reshuffled. John Cominsky took a step back last season before taking a pay cut this offseason. Josh Paschal has been more of a complementary piece than a true starter, while James Houston is a situational pass rusher. The Lions did sign Marcus Davenport and Mathieu Betts, but both come with question marks. Can Davenport stay healthy and find consistency? Can Betts handle the jump from CFL to NFL? Drafting another pass rusher could be the best way to get Hutchinson a partner in crime.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
If the Lions want to add a sure-fire starter, they might have difficulty doing so in the draft. The edge class this year is already weaker than most, and by the time the 29th selection rolls around, how many prospects will be capable of starting right away? If you are looking at the next tier of prospects, then you run into a similar situation as last year: the Lions had a lot of good defensive end options, but not a lot of great defensive end options. At some point, you need elite talent.

Odds the Lions draft one: 75%
I would be somewhat surprised if the Lions didn’t add a defensive end in the draft. The need for a starter across from Hutchinson is too great to ignore, and I think the Lions need to take a shot on a high-ceiling prospect, be it Day 1 or later. Even if they can’t add a starter, depth is required following so many offseason departures. They should look to add as much talent as they can to the defensive end group and let preseason and training camp filter out the hierarchy.

Defensive tackle

Why the Lions will draft one:
Alim McNeill is turning into a fantastic defensive tackle, but the rest of their defensive interior was severely lacking—Benito Jones played over 600 snaps last season! That was partially addressed in free agency with the signing of DJ Reader, but he is entering his 30s on a two-year deal and is coming off a significant injury. His success, both short- and long-term, is not a sure thing. Given how little Brodric Martin played last season and Jones’ departure in free agency, the only experienced depth they have is Levi Onwuzurike, who had battled injuries his entire career.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
McNeill is the star, Reader is the talented veteran, and Martin is the young project. That is a totally fine recipe for the Lions’ interior. Reader is on pace to be healthy come Week 1. Martin is lined up for a bigger role next season and he has Reader to mentor him. It’s too soon to give up on Martin despite the quiet rookie season—much like Hendon Hooker at quarterback, they need to be given time.

Odds the Lions draft one: 50%
If the Lions draft a defensive tackle, I think it’ll be as insurance for McNeill or a replacement for Onwuzurike. Something on Day 2 or 3 would be reasonable given their lack of depth.

Linebacker

Why the Lions will draft one:
Having an elite linebacker can make or break a defense—think of how crucial a player like Fred Warner is for the San Francisco 49ers defense. Pivotal parts of both the run and pass defense, a great linebacker can make everyone’s role easier. The Lions have good linebackers, but do they have great linebackers? None of their current core have played like All-Pros. Alex Anzalone has a history of injuries and subpar play, while Derrick Barnes is on the last year of his rookie contract.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
The Lions have five linebackers that are all but guaranteed to make the roster come September. With Anzalone a captain of the defense coming off his best season and the team quite high on rising talents in Barnes and Jack Campbell, there is no need for a starter. Plus, they invested a first-round pick in Campbell—he is viewed as a future core of the defense. Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Malcolm Rodriguez are both excellent depth and special teamers. The only linebacker the Lions have lost this offseason is Anthony Pittman, but his special teams role can be replaced by any number of free agents or undrafted rookies.

Odds the Lions draft one: 10%
The Lions will surely add competition for a sixth linebacker spot, but there is very little chance they draft one early. A linebacker would be understandable in the sixth or seventh round, but then again, nearly every position is understandable late on Day 3.

Cornerback

Why the Lions will draft one:
Cornerback was already a need entering the season, and this was before the situation surrounding Cameron Sutton emerged. With his release, the Lions’ outside cornerback group is headed by Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, and Emmanuel Moseley. Davis has one year remaining on his deal, though the Lions will likely look to extend the former Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Robertson was a mixed bag as a starter with the Las Vegas Raiders and he is far from a guaranteed lockdown corner. Moseley is coming off yet another ACL tear. The Lions have a star in Brian Branch in the slot, but little behind him. The Lions need help for both 2024 and beyond.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
The starting duo of Davis and Robertson is nearly set in stone following the release of Sutton. It is an upgrade over what the Lions had last season with Will Harris, Jerry Jacobs, Khalil Dorsey, and Kindle Vildor shuffling in and out of the lineup. Moseley’s health is a wild card, but on paper, the Lions have a decent group of corners compared to 2023. Dorsey also showed promise last season and has value as a depth piece, while Steven Gilmore stayed on the active roster all season and could see an expanded opportunity.

Odds the Lions draft one: 90%
Sutton’s release all but guarantees a corner will be selected at some point. The 29th pick is a prime spot to take a corner, and in a fairly talented class, there will be no shortage of great prospects capable of starting sooner rather than later. Even looking later in the draft, the Lions need depth. Not only is it likely that the Lions draft a cornerback, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft two as well.

Safety

Why the Lions will draft one:
The Lions’ safety group has three names on it: Kerby Joseph, Ifeatu Melifonwu, and Brandon Joseph. That’s it. Joseph took a step back in 2023 after an excellent rookie season. Melifonwu was playing lights-out down the stretch last season, but a history of injuries and limited resume means his reliability is questionable. Joseph, meanwhile, was on the practice squad all season. With Tracy Walker and C.J. Gardner-Johnson gone, the Lions need depth at the very least.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
With the likes of Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Justin Simmons, Eddie Jackson, Julian Blackmon, and Micah Hyde still available in free agency, there are plenty of capable and experienced veterans the Lions could sign—and probably for a fair price as well. One of these players seems like an obvious move for the Lions’ third safety spot. With them in the fold, the Lions might not need to add safety in the draft. Joseph did stick around for the entire season amid multiple practice squad shuffles, so there is some level of confidence there.

Odds the Lions draft one: 70%
Even if the Lions sign a veteran, adding a rookie safety is reasonable on multiple levels. Melifonwu is in the last year of his rookie contract, while a veteran is unlikely to be signed beyond two years. If they start the season on special teams, that should still be enough value to warrant a draft pick.

Kicker

Why the Lions will draft one:
Michael Badgley is the only signed kicker, and a questionable one at that given his range and reliability. The Lions have failed to replace Matt Prater and despite all the great moves Brad Holmes has made, he has struck out on kicker at every turn. It might be time to shell out the draft capital for a kicker with pedigree.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
Great kickers can be found undrafted. Justin Tucker will go down as one of the NFL’s best kickers, and he was undrafted back in 2012. Last year’s first-team All-Pro was Brandon Aubrey, a former soccer player.

Odds the Lions draft one: 30%
I’m normally against drafting kickers, but something needs to be done. The Lions need someone to solidify their kicking game, and if it means spending a draft pick, I’ll take it. A drafted kicker is no guaranteed success (see Nate Freese), but it might be a worthy gamble in the late rounds. Are the Lions a lock to draft a kicker? No. Should they strongly consider one? I believe so.

Punter

Why the Lions will draft one:
They won’t.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
Jack Fox.

Odds the Lions draft one: 0%
Jack Fox.

Long snapper

Why the Lions will draft one:
The Lions rotated between two long snappers last season with Jake McQuaide filling in for an injured Scott Daly. Only Daly has been re-signed thus far, but he has had a fair share of poor snaps bailed out by Jack Fox (there should be an All-Pro for holder). The Lions might look to add competition.

Why the Lions won’t draft one:
We’re talking about long snapper. Long snapper is a position with little perceived value. Eight long snappers have been drafted since 2015 and only two of them remain active: Joe Cardona (New England Patriots) and Blake Ferguson (Miami Dolphins). Not only are long snappers rarely drafted, but the ones that are drafted aren’t overwhelmingly better either.

Odds the Lions draft one: 1%
Unless Holmes is possessed by Bob Quinn, I doubt they would spend a draft pick on a long snapper.