Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 5

A Weekly Fantasy Football, DFS and Sports Betting Blog

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available.

Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Last week, I wrote:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2022/9/29/23379356/malotts-believe-it-or-not-week-4

The Miami Dolphins +3.5 are +150 straight up and I would take both of those bets against the Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 and -175. I don’t believe in the Bengals and I absolutely see the Dolphins winning their Division if the Bills fall off at all.

If Joe Burrow reads this, I’m sorry for saying I don’t believe! I will definitely do that again.

It’s cheeky, but your Indianapolis Colts are -3.5 and -180 straight up and I’d bet they’re able to cover at home against a beat-up Tennessee Titans +3.5 and +150 straight up.

Whilst only a touchdown game, it felt much worse than that for Colts fans, amirite?

The Baltimore Ravens +3 and +130 straight up are beating the Buffalo Bills -3 and -150 straight up.

I’m a big fan of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. This was a field goal game and we came up on the wrong end of that this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs +1 and -115 straight up and the Los Angeles Rams +1.5 and +100 straight up are big road winners on Sunday and Monday night.

As much as we’ve struggled, keep in mind we did win one bet this week and that was the Chiefs were technically an underdog on the road and won by 10.

Again, this isn’t the norm for me. If you look at past years’ betting articles, I’ve consistently been right over 55% of the time (which appears to be sort of the breaking point between “I should be getting paid to do this” and amateur sports betting), but this year, that is simply not the case. It really is a week-to-week league and with all the injuries coming in, I want to wait as late as possible in the week so as to have as much information as possible before putting out an article.

Sports Betting (all lines from Tallysight)

Tonight, the Colts +3.5 and +145 S/U are on the road against the Broncos -3.5 and -170 S/U. At some point, the Colts have to overcome their slow start, and no, as I’ve been saying in my podcast, I don’t think it’s this week on the road in Denver. However, we are priced into taking them straight up because it will be a boon to us as part of a parlay.

On Sunday, the Titans -1.5 and -130 S/U are on the road against the Commanders +1.5 and +110 S/U. I have no dog in this fight, but I want the Commanders to win just because it’s against our Division rival and it would sort of let Wentz back into the “start more than 12 games” conversation, whereas earlier this week the Commanders were ISO a QB. We are getting some love if we take them to win straight up at +110, so let’s do it!

I’m taking the Lions +3.5 and +270 S/U over the QB-less Patriots -3.5 and -170 S/U because you need one of those to play offense in this game. Again, if we are trying to hit it big, we ought to take bets that will help our parlay if we hit, so again I’d just take the Lions straight up and ride the lightning. They’re exciting to watch at least!

This will go right over some of your heads, but the Texans +7 and +270 S/U are 2-1-1 on the road ATS and face a Division rival in the Jaguars -7 and -325 S/U. This is an example of a situation where again, we are priced into taking the deep underdog Texan team to upset what appears to be a pretty good Jaguars team all things considered. I’m not saying they’ll upset the Jags, so no, we aren’t also priced into that. Sometimes, you gotta let Vegas fill you in. The Jags are probably going to win, so let’s just hope for a close game.

The Atlanta Falcons +9.5 and +340 S/U are 4-0 ATS on the road against the Bucs -9.5 and -425 S/U. This feels pretty much like a no-brainer. Again, we aren’t priced into taking the Falcons to upset the Bucs on the road, but they are basically a lock to keep it close, right?

Lastly, the Dallas Cowboys +5.5 and +195 S/U are 3-1 ATS on the road against the Rams -5.5 and -230 S/U. This is absolutely a situation where I’d bet the Cowboys to keep it close over expecting them to upset the Rams because the Cooper Rush is undefeated conversation has to die eventually, right? Why not against the reigning Super Bowl Champions?

Daily Fantasy Sports (Prices are from Draftkings)

Last week, I wrote:

When I checked Draftkings for a classic lineup to share, I came away thinking Carson Wentz and company on the road when I looked at their value. With Dallas starting Cooper Rush at QB, it could give the Commanders one too many opportunities on offense and they could even spoil, but I wouldn’t even go that far. I just think for the money, you can get Wentz, Curtis Samuel, and Antonio Gibson all for around $6,000 each (which is what I call starter money), and given their average points-per-game versus their overall value and considering their matchup, I like them as a base. I still got to field Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle, using Jets TE Tyler Conklin (24 targets through 3 weeks as a TE is high volume and for $3,600…) and getting a soft matchup with Denver $2,700 on the road in Las Vegas (0-3). Who you got?

Apparently, my magic has worn off as the Commanders scored 10 points last week.

This week, I (obviously) am going away from the Commanders as fantasy darlings and instead will spotlight the Lions on the road against the Patriots in a game where the Detroit offense (averaging like 35 points a game) could get additional possessions because of the quarterback issues in New England. I like Jared Goff’s value at $6,100 along with his teammates RB Jamaal Williams at $6,500 and TE T.J. Hockenson at $4,900. I like going with a player or two in games I see could just wind up with the ball in your hand a lot is all here. I rounded out my lineup with Clyde Edwards-Helaire at $6,300, Amari Cooper at $6,000, Chris Olave at $5,700, Courtland Sutton at $6,300, and then picked up Garrett Wilson at $5,200. I also like the Ravens at $3,000 against the very bad Bengals offensive line. Who you got?

Fantasy Football

Ah, the other love of my life. I’m 1-3 in the Stampede Blue Staff League, but I’m finally starting the New England backfield in that league, so good luck, Greg Rader! I’m 3-1 in a practice league and 2-2 in the only cash league I play in. It feels like a lot of QBs and TEs are getting hurt this year or are underperforming (which is what you hope happens when you bet on RB/WR depth instead), so we could get lucky and guys like Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater could headline a winning roster, right? How’s it going for you?

Enjoy the games this week! Go Colts!