Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 8

A weekly fantasy football, sports betting and daily fantasy football blog.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available.

Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Last week, I wrote here:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2022/10/22/23417702/malotts-believe-it-or-not-week-7#comments

Good morning! If you were wondering how the Bucs could lose to the Panthers 21-3 and then come out on a short week and look pretty good against the Ravens all things considered, have you tried

Last week, I wrote:

I fully expect that this will come back to bite me, but the easiest bet I’ve ever made in my life is taking the New York Giants +3 on the road against the fading and 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. I don’t know why they’re an underdog here!

Oops we won that bet. 1-0

The Colts +2 are on the road against the Titans -2, and again, I don’t think the outcome will be the same as just a few weeks ago. I wouldn’t say picking the Colts is an easy decision here. I have just a sliver of doubt in my heart, is all.

Not only is Matt Ryan injured, he got demoted in the same week. Life comes at you fast. 1-1

I am completely off the Denver Broncos -1 and anything affiliated with the now-washed Russell Wilson. I am on board with the New York Jets +1 entirely because I’ll attend a virtual football coaching certification with Soldiers to Sidelines and the team next weekend.

Jets win! 2-1

The Seattle Seahawks +5 on the road against the Chargers -5 (who struggled against the Broncos last week) feels appealing to me. The Seahawks don’t have to win to feel like I’m right that they’ll keep it close.

Oh! The Seahawks won, too! 3-1

Lastly, the Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 are big road underdogs against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, and I really like Mike Tomlin, if I’m being completely honest. I think the Steelers show up to play as they always do, and the more I gush about their coach, the more likely I am to write that I wouldn’t be surprised if they won on the road as a touchdown dog Sunday night. Feels very Mike Tomlin to me.

Easily my best week picking 4/5 outcomes correctly!

SPORTS BETTING THIS WEEK

SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

I am confident the Jets +2.5 beat the Patriots at home because if the Jets are for real, this is another notch in your belt. Otherwise…

I’d also love to see young Sam Ehlinger win his first start at home, but it simply is a mathematical improbability. I’m not saying there’s no chance the Colts win, but the fact that this is a week-to-week league and the Commanders starting QB Taylor Heinicke has one start this season already, I’d take the Commanders +3 and take them giving the Colts a big scare or beating them. They do have Scary Terry McLaurin and it is Halloween weekend!

I tend to look at big point spreads and scoff at them, especially anything over 14 points. I think the Eagles -10.5 blow out the Steelers. I also think that while Aaron Rodgers could be fading as well (washed, as I put it in my newest pick’em video with my wife), he’s capable of keeping his Packers +11 close but I’m not saying they beat the Bills.

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS

Seattle QB Geno Smith $5,800 is a great value at QB for your Classic team.

I really haven’t found a good strategy for picking players in Daily Fantasy Sports because my gut tells me to look for good value, but what we’re looking for is heavy hitters and then extreme value. It’s like you want your roster to have household names at QB/WR/RB/TE but filler and flyers otherwise. It’s more chaotic than fantasy football because what I see as a sound strategy only wins some money if any.

FANTASY FOOTBALL

Half of the best teams in your league are basically not playing with the Chiefs on a bye this week. No Travis Kelce and no Patrick Mahomes makes your week more winnable unless you have them on your team, right? My only cash fantasy football league is a complete dumpster fire at 3-4 and 8th of 10 teams, but at least I’m not a Twitter employee right now, amiright?

Enjoy the games this week and wish me luck! I start a coaching certification with the New York Jets and Soldiers to Sidelines this weekend!

Here’s a link to this week’s pick’em video I make with my wife.