New money quarterback deals set the stage for Chargers’ extension of Justin Herbert

With the offseason in full swing and free agency set to start in the middle of March, two key quarterback deals this week could set the market for the Chargers’ future negotiations with Justin Herbert. The fourth-year signal caller is entering his fourth season under center in Los Angeles and will be due for a massive payday after his fifth-year option.

The third tier QB market is set…

Daniel Jones: 2 year, $82M guaranteed
Derek Carr: 2 year, $70M guaranteed
Geno Smith: 1 year, $40M guaranteed

There are incentives and team options beyond these numbers, but $30M-$40M is the per year cost for QBs ranking in the teens.

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 7, 2023

The Saints’ signing of Derek Carr earlier this week sent shockwaves around the league. The Giants’ decision to give Daniel Jones more than $80 million in guaranteed money set a new precedent for what quarterbacks can expect to make in the modern NFL.

Herbert’s youth will factor into the length and total dollar amount of his new contract, and negotiations could get tense as the Chargers will almost certainly be desperate to keep their franchise quarterback in Los Angeles for the better part of a decade on his second deal.

With the market’s volatility and seemingly parabolic rise in average pay per year, the Chargers may be forced to resort to the franchise tag when dealing with Herbert’s payday and could deploy a strategy similar to that of the Ravens in their negotiations with former MVP Lamar Jackson.

Baltimore elected to tender Jackson with a non-exclusive franchise tag on Tuesday, paving the way for other teams to set his market while Baltimore has the right of first refusal and the ability to match any contract offered to the 26-year-old gunslinger.

Los Angeles’ salary cap situation will need to be rectified before they can do anything to stop the long-term bleeding that Herbert’s second contract will entail. Given the utter lack of flexibility, the Chargers may be resigned to using the cudgel of the franchise tag, whether of the exclusive variety or otherwise, to keep Herbert under center in powder blue and sunshine gold in 2024.