Next Gen Stats captures unlikely probability of Titans’ Week 2 comeback win

The Titans bounced back from last week’s embarrassment to win an absolute thriller over the Seahawks by a score of 33-30.

Tennessee entered the game hoping to learn something positive about themselves after letting the fan-base down in Week 1. Mike Vrabel will be thrilled about the mental toughness his team showed on Sunday. The Titans trailed 24-9 at the half. In the fourth quarter, they were down 30-16. They would then go on to score 17 straight points and win the game in overtime.

Prior to Sunday’s loss, the Seahawks were an astounding 52-0 when leading by 15 points at home, per CBS. The Seahawks entered halftime with that 15 point lead, but it wouldn’t last.

The Titans lead their King to an unlikely comeback win. Derrick Henry finished the game with 182 yards on 35 carries (5.2 yards per carry). Henry added 55 yards on six catches, totaling a ridiculous 237 yards on the day.

If you had given up or switched the channel at half time or even in the fourth quarter when the Titans were down 30-16, nobody would have blamed you. In fact, the accurate Next Gen Stats captured just how unlikely this victory was.

Next Gen Stats is an excellent tool. Its model often tells the story, and this week’s reveal for the Titans is a fun one. According to their advanced win probability model, Tennessee had as low as a 4% chance to win the game with 13:16 left in the fourth quarter.

Wow. It doesn’t get more unlikely than that.

The Titans will feel great about this one, but there are things to be corrected and concerned about. The defense played generally well, but the miscues and lapses on the backend that lead to yards in big chunks is an issue that needs to be corrected. The health of Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold will also be a big talking point over the next few days.

The Titans take on the Colts next Sunday.