What’s the over/under on Matthew Stafford’s 2021 passing touchdowns?

PFF posted some numbers – do we agree or disagree with them?

PFF’s betting guide that they recently posted had over/under totals for the LA Rams and an expectation of how many wins they’ll achieve next season. Do the numbers look sound?

The Rams are currently at 10.5 wins (out of a 17-game season) with Super Bowl odds at 7.1%. That’s pretty high! Especially for a team that was in such bad shape prior to Sean McVay and Andrew Whitworth’s arrivals in 2017.

Here are the odds posted at PFF:

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Win Totals: 10.5 105 | -125

Division Odds: 34.5%

Playoff Odds: 66.1%

Super Bowl Odds: 7.1%

Player props (season totals)

RB Cam Akers 1,400.5 rushing and receiving yards

WR Cooper Kupp 92.5 receptions

QB Matthew Stafford 4,700.5 passing yards

QB Matthew Stafford 26.5 passing touchdowns

WR Robert Woods 1,000.5 receiving yards

PFF also noted what they think the best of these bets is and they believe that Stafford won’t reach 30 passing touchdowns in 2021:

Best bet: QB Matthew Stafford UNDER 29.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

It’s hard to find a bet for the Rams since the market seems to be properly pricing in their potential to be a great team while also juicing the price for those who are a little bit more negative on the club than conventional wisdom (for example, UNDER 10.5 wins is priced at -140).

PFF’s fantasy projections have Stafford around 27.5 touchdown passes, which is under the current market price. In addition to the Rams using players like Cam Akers near the goalline (we have him projected to score 7.2 touchdowns), there are a number of reasons that this number could go under. First, the Rams’ defense is projected to be pretty good (again), giving rise to game scripts that won’t require Los Angeles to score as many points to win contests. Second, Stafford has had some injuries in the past, causing him to go over this number (granted, in a 16-game schedule) just twice in his entire career.

PFF expects Cam Akers to steal away touchdowns from Stafford at the goal line and that they won’t be in many shootouts next season in parts thanks to the defense.

Stafford threw 26 touchdowns in 2020 despite playing for Matt Patricia, losing Kenny Golladay for 11 games, and having one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. He threw 19 touchdowns in 2019 despite missing half of the season. En total, I think Stafford’s average number of touchdowns while playing for offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell in Detroit over the last two years should translate to at least 30 touchdowns in an above-average offense.

Former Rams quarterback Jared Goff threw 32 touchdowns in 2018 and 28 touchdowns (in 15 games) the year before that. He wasn’t nearly as effective over the last two seasons and that’s why Sean McVay went out and got “his guy” in Stafford. So I would expect McVay to expect Stafford to lead his team into the end zone many more times than Goff ever did, including 2018.

With Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, DeSean Jackson, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers, Tutu Atwell, and Van Jefferson around him this year, and the 17th game added to the schedule, I expect the Over for Stafford on 29.5 touchdowns.

What do you expect?