NFL combine: Success in a specific workout has not led to success in the NFL

Stephen Paea was an exciting NFL draft prospect due to his strength but it never translated

With the NFL Combine just days away, it feels like the NFL draft is just around the corner even if it doesn’t actually kickoff until late April. The draft is such a guessing game. Very good drafting teams usually hit on two to three players who are either stars or starters by year three of their time in the NFL.

That means good teams miss on over half of their draft picks. For bad teams, it is much worse.

Fans and media tend to focus on the misses and the unrealistic expectations despite the long history of the NFL draft being a crapshoot. For the Cleveland Browns and their fans, the draft used to be seen as both a place where the franchise could finally turn the corner and the place where failure began for many teams.

The value of the NFL Combine is things not seen by fans or media. The interviews, the on-field workouts and the measurements provide some information but teams get the most out of their meetings with prospects and the medical evaluations. There is a lot of belief that the rest of the things that go on at the Combine are useless.

What drills matter have been discussed for decades now. The 40-yard dash is fun but doesn’t really matter for 90% or more of the draft class. Some of the explosive traits found in the different jump events and the agility drills seem to correlate better to success.

A post today about the bench press shows that it doesn’t correlate to success at the NFL level:

Paea was drafted in the second round in 2011, played in 83 games, including 13 in Cleveland, but found opportunities after his rookie contract expired and was out of the league before the age of 30.

Petrus was in the league for three years after being drafted in the fifth round of the 2010 draft but only played a total of 57 snaps on offense, all in 2012, and was out of the league after three seasons. Owens was also a part of the 2010 draft, a seventh-round selection, but he only played one game in his career.

Larsen (misspelled in the above graphic), was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft but only played in 16 games during his two seasons in the NFL.

Bunkley had the best career of the bunch with 130 games including 101 starts in his nine-year career. After being a first-round pick in 2006, Bunkley had 242 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 15 QB hits, nine passes defended, 8.5 sacks, three fumble recoveries and one forced fumble.

Muti was drafted in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL draft. He enters free agency after three years with Denver and spending last year with the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s played in 22 games with 468 snaps on the offensive line in those four seasons.

Harrington received tryouts with the league after going undrafted in 2010 but never played a game in the NFL while Young played 14 games on the offensive line, including one with the Browns, during his three-year career.

Of the top 10 performers in the bench press, one became a solid starter, one was a solid backup for a few seasons and one has a chance to continue his career this year.

There are a lot of workouts and activities that will take place in Indiana this week but bench press success is pointless. Players on the line need to show they have some minimal strength in the workout but that is the only value of this activity.

Are you surprised that the strongest players on the bench press at the Combine have mostly not been successful?