NFL draft history: “Plug and play” rookies rare the last 5 seasons

There are always exceptions but rookies are not playing a lot quickly anymore

The NFL draft is just a couple of days away but 2024 rookies, as a class, are likely at least a year away from really producing on the field. While media and fans are drawn to the CJ Stroud and Puka Nacua rookies who take the world by storm, far more often first-year players are at least a year away from contributing significantly even as first-round picks.

For the Cleveland Browns, first-round picks haven’t been a concern for a few seasons. Neither have second-rounders.

Expectations for rookies selected after the first round are always less but are they still too high?

Based on the last five years, there may be rookies, like Caleb Williams (pictured above), who see a ton of snaps. Selected in the fourth round last year, Dawand Jones played in over 700 snaps for the Browns but, based on the data, he was more the exception than the rule:

Just over a third of the rookies drafted played in at least 300 snaps. Few snaps mean fewer chances to make a statistical impact on the field.

With head coaches (and front offices) having a short leash around the N(ot) F(or) L(ong), teams are trusting veterans who are less likely to make mistakes over rookies who might have a higher ceiling.

With Cleveland’s first selection coming in the middle of the second round and no pick in the fourth round currently, Browns fans should have low expectations that their rookies will see the field. Given the team’s loaded (in talent and numbers) roster, rookies are even less likely to produce in 2024.

At least in Cleveland’s case, rookies are not getting playing time due to expectations. Even teams with no expectations who are rebuilding are not always giving their drafted players time on the field.

Are you surprised that the number has been that low across the league in the last five years? Why do you think that is?