NFL Evolution Usually Happens in Plain Sight

It’s not breaking any new ground to suggest that the NFL has historically been a “copycat league.”

Big, strong-armed quarterbacks were long the norm across the Shield’s landscape, and smaller, mobile quarterbacks were many times relegated to making a decision between a position change or a passport to Canada. Physical offensive lines became vogue for a period of time, before giving way to more athletic lines that could pull and react to a wave of pass rushers who relied on bend, rage and speed following the emergence of Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas.

The West Coast offense crafted by Paul Brown and Bill Walsh has been adapted and morphed over the years to fit whatever age the NFL happened be in at any given time, and we’ve seen team after team trying to emulate “The Patriot Way,” even though they were missing two fairly important ingredients — the Patriots quarterback and coach.

If imitation is indeed the sincerest form of flattery, and it’s an easy argument to make that it is, then the NFL has long been a flower-throwing organization.

Today’s league is no different. There are trends that are highly visible — beyond the typical “You need a quarterback to win,” and “Turnovers aren’t predictive” axioms. Let’s take a few that we have seem come to light this offseason, discuss their relevance and see how the Ravens potentially stack up with this new way of doing business.

Premium draft picks don’t hold the same value that they used to — at least when compared to proven talent.

Basis: This one has been as loud as any this offseason, as we’ve seen teams move these once-sacred picks for established stars. The Broncos acquired Russell Wilson. And Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Khalil Mack and Deshaun Watson have all been nabbed for significant draft capital. We just watched the Rams win a Super Bowl by valuing stars over potential.

Accuracy: I’d say this is pretty accurate with one caveat — teams do have a desire to obtain these premium picks, or the trades wouldn’t take place. It depends on where your franchise happens to be, in most of these cases. Trying to win right now and worry about the future later? Make a move. Trying to build up something? Stack those picks and try to obtain as much talent as you can for the long haul.

Ravens’ situation: You could argue that the Ravens should consider themselves a 2022 contender and sell out the future for a shot at glory now, or you could agree with the notion that the Ravens like to “take a bite of the apple” every year, get themselves into position to make it into the playoffs and then hope to get hot. Both arguments make sense, but I selfishly want the Ravens to be good every year and get hot every now and then and win a ring. The Bengals and Rams made it to last year’s Super Bowl, and they were both the #4 seed in their respective conference.

The Ravens fell on their collective faces in the 2006 and 2019 postseasons. It happens.

You have to pay to keep your star quarterback, but you might be bidding farewell to that premium receiver as a consequence.

Basis: Going back to that earlier statement that you need a difference-making quarterback to win in today’s NFL, it’s important to remember that these quarterbacks — and their agents — understand their importance and value. That means big bucks, and with a salary cap, that means sacrifices will be made, sooner or later.

Accuracy: Aaron Rodgers got the monster deal, only to see Adams leave a short time later. Patrick Mahomes got his deal last year, and will no longer be dealing to Hill (though KC did offer him big money as well). Dak Prescott stays, while Amari Cooper goes to Cleveland. Watson got paid in Cleveland and… that’s for another day.

Ravens’ situation: Lamar Jackson is one of those quarterbacks who can make plays when everything goes wrong around him, and that is something in high demand in today’s NFL. But, he has yet to put pen to paper to sign that lucrative, long-term investment between player and team that so many people thought was a sure thing just a short time ago. Mark Andrews is already under contract with the team through 2025, and the franchise has historically valued tight ends, so he should stay even if/when Jackson signs. But what happens to Marquise Brown down the line? Do they avoid signing that big-ticket receiver the fanbase screams for every year?

If I’m the Ravens, I’m adding a receiver every year in the draft, either with a premium pick, or a later-round guy with through-the-roof potential. You might need to keep restocking the shelves if/when Jackson gets his bag in Baltimore.

You don’t draft [Position Fill-in-the-Blank] at [Fill-in-the-blank].

Basis: This is in relation to premium positions, and what positions should be targeted at specific points in the draft. It particularly comes out when talking about the first round. You know the talk: You don’t draft a running back in the first round anymore. Interior offensive linemen should come Day 2 or 3. Tight ends can be had over the weekend. Etc.

Accuracy: Certain positions certainly carry more weight. Just look at how many quarterbacks typically go early when compared to various Big Boards. Corners, receivers, tackles, and pass-rushers make up an inordinate number of first-round selections because they play positions of high value in today’s league. But there are outliers, obviously. Guard Quenton Nelson went sixth in the 2018 draft, and the Colts have gotten value for that. Najee Harris went to Pittsburgh last year in the first round, and looks like a building block for them.

Ravens’ situation: There has been quite a bit of buzz surrounding the Ravens’ 14^th pick in this year’s draft and, like most years, there is discussion focused on need versus best player available (BPA). This year, there is the added wrinkle of one Tyler Linderbaum, the center out of Iowa. With the departure of Bradley Bozeman, and no subsequent move to bring in an outside center, speculation is focused on players already on the roster (Patrick Mekari or Trystan Colon), or drafting one. The notion of Linderbaum being that 14^th pick is often met with groans about positional value, or questions about his size in relation to the Ravens’ desired wish to get bigger and stronger up front.

Here’s my thought: If there is trepidation on the Ravens’ part because of his size, move on. Just move on and go another direction. If it’s a question of positional value, stop. If Linderbaum, in your opinion, makes the Ravens better than any alternative at that spot, then pull the trigger. Play your own hand — not what some general opinion might be.

In fact, when looking at all three of these exercises, you could argue that teams have to look at what is in their building, what they want to have in their building and what they have to do to get those kinds of players in their building, as opposed to just going on general NFL trends. If there is indeed more than one way to skin a cat (and why on Earth is that even a phrase?), build your team your way and just let the outside noise stay outside.

These new trends get going for a reason, right? Be the one to set the course, and let others spend their time chasing you.

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