NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Before the fourth Sunday of the 2021 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 4 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings.

My overall record so far is 24-24. That’s better than the BGN Community, which is 21-27.

Here are the latest suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL WEEK 4 GAMES

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1.5) at ATLANTA FALCONS: It’s hard to believe Washington’s defense has been as bad as it’s been. It’s one thing for defense to not be sticky year-to-year but it just feels like the Football Team has too much talent to have a bad defense. On paper, Washington’s defensive line should be able to take advantage of a Falcons offensive line that has issues protecting Matt Ryan. PICK: Football Team -1.5

HOUSTON TEXANS at BUFFALO BILLS (-17.5): Geez. What a spread. But the Bills definitely have the capability to cover it with Josh Allen heating up and Davis Mills being wholly uninspiring. PICK: Bills -17.5

DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS (-3): It’s tempting to take the Lions outright here. Detroit has shown a lot of fight under Dan Campbell; they nearly upset Baltimore last week. And the Bears looked downright abysmal against Cleveland with just ONE net passing yard. Justin Fields probably can’t be as bad as he was last week. Matt Nagy has to do more to help him out, right? PICK: Bears -3

CAROLINA PANTHERS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-4): It’s a matchup of a top defense versus a top offense. Except Carolina’s top defense might look better than it really is after facing two rookies (Zach Wilson, Davis Mills) and Jameis Winston. Carolina has a rest advantage coming into this game since they last played on Thursday night in Week 3 while Dallas had to play on Monday night. But the Panthers also had to deal with Jaycee Horn and Christian McCaffrey getting hurt in their last matchup. Dallas is primed to take advantage. PICK: Cowboys -4

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2.5): The Colts are really banged up but the thought here is they simply need this game more. They can’t afford to drop to 0-4. Carson Wentz comes through for an outcome that helps the Eagles. PICK: Colts +2.5

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Browns aren’t getting enough respect here. Sure, Kirk Cousins is coming off a really good game, and Minny is better than their 1-2 record indicates. But Cleveland’s defense can slow Cousins down. And it’s not like his track record against actually good teams is great. PICK: Browns -1

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7): The Saints are a hard team to gauge on a weekly basis due to Jameis Winston’s volatility. Thankfully, the Giants are easier to gauge as a pretty bad team. The G-Men are banged up heading into an almost certain loss in the Saints’ return to the Superdome. If the Giants can only score 14 against Atlanta, I don’t see how they’re putting up a ton of points against this defense. PICK: Saints -7

TENNESSEE TITANS (-6) at NEW YORK JETS: The Jets are just so incredibly devoid of talent. It’s really impossible to bet on them. PICK: Titans -6

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: The Chiefs are notoriously bad at covering the spread, going 2-12 in their last 14 games. Following a blowout loss to Dallas on Monday night, it’s hard to feel like the Birds are definitely going to keep this game competitive. But, hey, maybe the Eagles have learned from some of their mistakes? Or maybe they can get a backdoor cover in garbage time? I’ll probably regret this but I’ll ride with the Birds earning a “moral victory” of some sort. PICK: Eagles +7

ARIZONA CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4): The Cards have done some nice things en route to their 3-0 start. But the Rams look like a true force to be reckoned with right now. PICK: Rams -4

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2.5): The Seahawks have historically given the 49ers a lot of trouble. Seattle’s defensive struggles won’t be as big of a deal against Jimmy Garoppolo, who has been leaving too many plays on the field. PICK: Seahawks +2.5

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) at DENVER BRONCOS: The Ravens have looked shaky, sure. But the Broncos are getting too much love here. Yes, Denver’s defense has been impressive regardless of opponent. But it’s not irrelevant that they’ve only beaten the three worst teams in the NFL. The Broncos aren’t 4-0 good and Teddy Bridgewater is not about to outdo Lamar Jackson. PICK: Ravens -1

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5): The Steelers are starting a quarterback who can’t throw against a dude who won MVP last year. PICK: Packers -6.5

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: There’s no way Tom Brady is allowing the Bucs to lose in this spot. Mac Jones doesn’t have what it takes to match Brady’s output. PICK: Buccaneers -7

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): The Raiders are due for their first loss after a nice 3-0 start. I like the Bolts better when it comes to the quarterback and head coach departments. PICK: Chargers -3