5 questions with Bolts From The Blue: How vulnerable are the Chargers?

We spoke with SB Nation’s Chargers blog about the Patriots’ Week 13 opponent.

The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are among the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far this season. And while the Chargers still appear to have an outside shot at making the playoffs at 4-7, neither they nor the 2-9 Patriots have a particularly promising outlook for the rest of the season, which makes their meeting this Sunday all the more interesting. Somebody has to win.

In order to get a better understanding of who the Patriots will be up against in Week 13, we exchanged questions with Arif Hasan of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Bolts From The Blue — the SB Nation community for all things Chargers.

Here is what Arif told us about the upcoming game.

1. How hot is Brandon Staley’s seat? Where has he fallen short, and is he not getting enough credit in some areas?

I am not sure how Brandon Staley survives the season, so if there’s a hotter seat than that I’m not sure. His tenure has been an overwhelming disappointment and the things people hoped to see out of the team as a result of his leadership have simply not materialized. His inability to pair Justin Herbert with an offensive coordinator who has been sympatico with his playing style and poor management of the defense — both schematically and personnel-wise. Staley has not provided the front office with the tools they need to identify players that fit the defense in free agency and has not adapted the scheme itself to the players he has or the realities of NFL offenses. There is not much that has indicated he has impacted the team culture positively or established an ethic of accountability.

That said, he seemingly has impacted the draft evaluation capability of the front office, either through good luck or through the advising his coaching staff provides to scouts. Aside from some luminaries like Derwin James and Justin Herbert, the Chargers draft history before Staley arrived was abysmal. Outside of the first round, the only hits in the previous several years were Alohi Gilman, Desmond King and Isaac Rochell. Now, it seems like there have more players across the draft that can meaningfully help the team — even if the first-round pick is a disappointment at the moment. It should also be noted that though the offense isn’t a great fit for Herbert, his development overall has been a success. After a successful rookie year, it wasn’t automatic that Herbert would continue to improve. But improve he has — there’s an argument that from a pure film and traits perspective that he’s a top five quarterback in the NFL. I think he deserves some credit for that.

And while this doesn’t exactly help the Chargers, advancing the public conversation about smarter football analysis and opening the door to melding traditional football with analytics deserves some credit as well. But the team isn’t good, so he’s got to go.

2. While not as severe, it feels like Justin Herbert is in a slightly similar boat to Mac Jones, with neither getting enough support to reach their potential early on. How did this offense get to the point where Keenan Allen has to be the offense’s bell-cow in Year 11?

The supporting cast issue with Herbert is an issue but it’s not nearly in the same arena as with Jones. Herbert may not be getting the right offensive coordinators for what he does well, but he is at least getting largely competent offensive coordinators. The offensive line, when healthy, is exciting and has been excellent in pass protection and run blocking. The receiving group is extremely talented too. When healthy. Anyone who is even remotely familiar with the Chargers can see where this goes. Receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are on injured reserve. Center Corey Linsley is on injured reserve. In the past, they’ve dealt with injuries to those players as well as Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Zion Johnson, Rashawn Slate, Oday Aboushi and Bryan Bulaga. It’s truly a wonder.

But we have seen a healthy offense around Herbert. And we’ve seen a *mostly* healthy offense around Herbert, which is the NFL standard. Both are extraordinarily potent. Now, without two of their top three receivers and a potentially lingering injury for Ekeler, the only reliable offensive weapons are Allen and to some extent tight ends Gerald Everett and Donald Parham, though both are limited in what they can do.

3. How has Kellen Moore’s hiring impacted Herbert’s development and LA’s offense in general? Has he been a net positive?

Moore has maintained the focus on passing the ball above all else, but that hasn’t really diminished Austin Ekeler’s role in any meaningful sense. That part is nice. But Moore hasn’t showcased the creativity that made the Dallas Cowboys offense so interesting when Dak Prescott was initially breaking out. The play sequencing was a strength of Moore’s in Dallas but doesn’t seem to be all that present in LA. He has been limited by the receivers available to him — Quentin Johnston being a disappointment limits the play calling — but even when everyone was healthy, there was a disappointing lack of concepts taking natural deep ball receivers like Williams and Palmer deep as often as they should be.

I’m not sure the run game and pass game are as well married as they should be. The play-action concepts don’t always match the run concepts — which could be an issue of technical coaching along the offensive line but seems more like disjointed play design — and they don’t help Herbert schematically that much with moving pockets, play-action and other elements meant to make the quarterback’s job a bit easier when possible. The screen game is broken and that doesn’t seem like a talent issue — the offensive line blocks well on the move and the receivers are theoretically supposed to be screen-capable. An astounding 45 percent of Herbert’s passes fall behind the line of scrimmage, but he ranks 21st in yards per attempt on screens. So, that needs to be figured out as well.

4. How has the Chargers defense adjusted to losing Joey Bosa? Why has their run defense struggled the past few weeks, aside from playing talented offenses?

Strangely, the pass rush has not fallen behind. It’s been odd — when Bosa started out the season still recovering from last year’s injury and had less juice, the Chargers were one of the worst teams in the NFL at generating pressure and pass rush wins. As Bosa recovered and demonstrated more burst off the line of scrimmage, the Chargers pass rush improved. The re-injury to Bosa is a huge blow, but Tuli Tuipulotu immediately stepped up while Khalil Mack continued to play at a high level. While he may not be playing like he did as a Raider, he’s actually not far from it. I would argue he’s just short of dominant right now. It’s truly stellar.

While pressure was a problem at the beginning of the year and more pressure could always help, I’d argue the issue with their defense — both against the pass and the run — has little to do with their edge rusher situation, despite how much having Bosa healthy and ready would help. Instead, the weak defensive tackle corps and the unpredictable linebacker group is more responsible. Kenneth Murray is great when someone aims him at a target and let’s him go. But he is neither a laser-guided munition nor a heat-seaking missile. He’ll win the Oklahoma drill at the line of scrimmage more often than not but the won’t always know which gap to attack, especially as gaps move because of option plays, pulling guards or counters. His gap discipline is poor even with static runs and is vulnerable to backs who can press lanes, demonstrate patience or those with creativity. The interior defensive line has found itself pushed back on base blocks and out-gained on zone blocks. It’s a mess.

5. The Chargers are currently 5.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. What went right for New England if the Patriots win (and potentially squander great draft position)?

The Chargers are best-suited to beating teams who run exclusively to the edges and mash deep balls at the cost of intermediate options. This seems like the opposite of the Patriots, who under either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe seem content to take the short and intermediate areas that Staley is comfortable giving up. Finding ways to do that without making mistakes could complement a defense that might be able to clamp down on Keenan Allen if Belichick pulls his typical defensive wizardry against one-dimensional teams.

I don’t think that the DraftKings Sportsbook is wrong in picking that line because of the enormous advantage the Chargers have at quarterback and likely have at offensive line and receiver despite their injuries. But if they were going to lose in an upset, it would be to a team like New England that should have a coaching advantage and play a style of football that exploits Los Angeles’ weaknesses up the middle in the run game and over the middle in the passing game.v

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