5 questions with Stampede Blue: What’s the key to stopping the Colts offense?

We spoke with SB Nation’s Colts blog about the Patriots’ Week 10 opponent.

The New England Patriots will take their act international this week, taking on the Indianapolis Colts in Frankfurt, Germany.

In order to get a better understanding of who the Patriots will be up against in Week 10, we exchanged questions with Chris Shepherd of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Stampede Blue — the SB Nation community for all things Colts.

Here is what he told us about the upcoming game.

1. How has the team adjusted to the unfortunate loss of Anthony Richardson? How has Gardner Minshew looked as QB1?

During the Colts short time with Anthony Richardson at quarterback they led the league in explosive plays. The offense was fun, it was creative, it was exciting. Anthony Richardson looked really good. Before I go much further let me say this about Gardner Minshew: you can’t ask for much more out of a backup quarterback in the NFL than what Minshew is giving the Indianapolis Colts. With everything I’m about to say, it’s important to remember that he’s a backup.

This Tweet perfectly encapsulates the Gardner Minshew experience:

Someone pondered about the next Colts drive during last week’s game. I responded with a prediction and then it all happened. The only thing I missed was that he didn’t throw any near-interceptions on that drive. Everything else was right. Minshew often panics when his first read isn’t there. He loves to escape from clean pockets. He runs himself into trouble and his arm is too weak to drive the ball deeper than 10-12 yards down field. If you have watched the Minshew experience in Indy so far you could easily say that last week was his worst performance. On the other hand, last week was the only game since Richardson went down that he didn’t turn the ball over. In fact, he has turned the ball over nine times in the past four games, which includes none last week and only one in Week 8.

Things have not been great at the position, Taylor.

2. Is Jonathan Taylor still the same guy who put up over 170 rushing yards the last time he faced the Patriots? How can New England slow him down this time around?

He looks like he’s getting back to being that guy. It took him a couple weeks to get back up to speed after being out of action for nearly a calendar year. The first half against the Saints was vintage JT. How can New England slow him down? It’s never been easier.

All the Patriots have to do is load the box. Dare Minshew to beat them with his arm. Spoiler: he can’t. The Jaguars figured out the formula to stopping the Minshew Colts and the Saints and Panthers followed the blueprint in the second half of those contests as well. At one point the Panthers came out in a bear front to match up with the Colts who were in 11 personnel. There’s no way you’re running on that, so naturally you’re just going to kill it with quick hitters, right? Wrong! Your quarterback is Gardner Minshew.

So you stop Taylor by doing the thing you don’t normally do in 2023, you dare the other team to pass and you do it because Jonathan Taylor will kill you. Gardner Minshew will not.

3. I heard Shaquille Leonard wasn’t happy with his role a couple of weeks ago, but Indy’s Cover 2 scheme dominated the Panthers. Did that have more to do with Carolina’s offense? Or is this unit finding its rhythm?

Shaq hasn’t looked the same since missing most of last year with an injury. He isn’t playing on passing downs and Zaire Franklin has taken over his role as the team’s number one playmaker at the position. Shaq has flashed a few times but he isn’t back to being the guy he was.

As far as are they finding their rhythm? It felt like (I don’t have the numbers) Indy played more cover 2 against Carolina than they have in a couple years and I think that says more about Carolina than it does the Colts. Bryce Young couldn’t beat it. With promising rookie Juju Brents out with an injured quad, the Colts corners have been a mess. I hope that last week was a sign of things to come, but I believe that the Panthers are just a special kind of bad on the offensive side of the ball.

4. Grover Stewart is one of the most underrated defensive tackles in football. How has the run defense fared since his loss?

Grove is one of those guys that no one ever notices. But when he’s in the game fans notice that everything seems to work better. When he’s not in the game, nothing works the same. In the run game you have to double Grove, if not he’s getting penetration and he’s messing up the play. But on the other hand if you do double him, what’s your plan for DeForest Bucker? Good luck.

Without Grove Indy has relied on Taven Bryan and Eric Johnson to play in his place. With Grove, Indy was giving up an average of 113.5 rushing yards per game (this number is inflated due to a game against the Ravens and one against the Rams where both Grove and Buckner came into the game at less than 100%). In the three games that Stewart has missed the Colts are giving up nearly 150 yards rushing per game. The first game Stewart missed was against the Browns. On the third play from scrimmage Jerome Ford took a handoff to the right, 69 yards for a touchdown and I can’t think of a better example of how things have been going without Grove in the lineup.

5. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Patriots as 2-point favorites despite losing to the Sam Howell-led Commanders last week. If the Patriots win this game, what went right? If they lose, what went right for the Colts?

If I know how to stop the Colts offense, Bill Belichick does too. My guess is on the defensive side of the ball the Pats are going to keep 8 men in the box from the first snap and they’re going to make Minshew throw the ball. Then Minshew is going to do what he does and he’s going to fail more often than he succeeds in big moments. On offense, if they win, they’ll have run the ball well and not turned it over.

If the Colts win it will be because Gardner Minshew played far above his ability level and/or Bill made a deal with Robert Kraft and they’re actually trying to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in Foxboro next fall. And as a guy that grew up watching the Peyton Manning Colts, I’d much rather lose one more to Bill, (this time in Germany) than let Caleb Williams or Drake Maye end up there.

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