Big Wide Receivers the Commanders Must Have in the 2024 Draft

We have a need for size and big play ability

The conversation about team needs in the draft is kind of funny. Football fans and most commentators talk about filling immediate needs, which is what good GMs like the Commanders’ Adam Peters do in free agency. If you listen to what the best personnel men in the business say about their approach in the draft, you hear more about raising the talent ceiling, finding players that fit their schemes, and adding new dimensions and playmaking ability. The best teams use the draft to continually feed the talent pipeline to stay competitive, and hopefully get an edge over the rest of the league.

Heading into a draft needing to fill roster holes can lead to bad decision making and overlooking premium talent at other positions, as Ron Rivera aptly demonstrated. Sadly, it is sometimes unavoidable. Due to the state in which Peters found the roster, he was not able to patch all the holes in a single free agency period. Aside from the obvious gap at QB, the Commanders may also be forced to use their early Day 2 picks on offensive tackles and other pressing needs, including cornerback and possibly pass rusher.

Nevertheless, after the first two or three picks, fans might be surprised to see the Commanders brain trust go off script and start picking players based on the talent and skillsets they bring to the team, rather than where the roster needs the most urgent attention.

One skillset which has been in short supply since Jordan Reed’s heyday is a big receiving target to create coverage mismatches and make life easier for Washington’s often struggling passers. That need persists to this day.

Big receivers come in a variety flavors. A quick glance at the rosters of the teams that competed in the 2023 Conference Championships reveals an abundance and variety of big receiving targets, including WR Josh Reynolds (Lions, 6-3, 194), TE Sam LaPorta (Lions 6-3, 245), TE Mark Andrews (Ravens, 6-5, 247), FB Patrick Ricard (Ravens, 6-3, 305), TE Travis Kelce (Chiefs, 6-5, 250), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-4, 206), and WR Rashee Rice (Chiefs for the time being, 6-2, 200).

No team in the 2023 season playoffs was better stocked with big targets than Adam Peters’ 49ers. QB Brock Purdy was spoiled for choice, with jumbo receiving options including TE George Kittle (6-4, 250), WR Jauan Jennings (6-3, 212), WR Deebo Samuel (6-0, 215 lbs) and FB Kyle Juszczyk (6-2, 235).

If the Commanders are serious about catching up with this arms race and competing for championships, they are going to need to add more size, muscle and dynamic playmaking ability to their receiving corps. Tight ends and fullbacks are deserving topics for another day. In this roundup, I will take a look a big wide receivers who might be available on Days 2 and 3 of the draft to help Washington revive its dormant tradition of playoff success.

As luck would have it, 2024 appears to be one of the strongest drafts for big wide receivers in recent memory. The following prospects are listed in the order they appear in one of two consensus big boards. The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board was used to rank players in the top 100. Players graded outside the top 100 were ranked according to the NFL Mock Draft Datatabase 2024 Consensus Big Board (MDDB). When available, Hogs Haven draft profiles are linked to the prospects’ names.

To help illustrate what makes these prospects so special, I have assembled a customized panel of statistics, including standard WR stats and some lesser-known metrics, intended to get at the particular contributions that big receivers bring to the passing game:

Stats Key:

RAS: Relative Athletic Score – a composite metric which rates prospects combined athletic testing relative to size at their position on a scale from 1 to 10

ADOT: Average Depth of Target – essential for interpreting catch rates and understanding how receivers were used in college

Drops: Drop rate as a percentage of targets

FMT: Forced Missed Tackles – PFF’s version of broken tackles, expanded to include forced misses

CTC: Contested Target Catch rate, expressed as a percentage of targets

YAC/Rec: Yards After the Catch per reception

Day 2 Prospects

The Commanders currently hold the 36^th and 40^th picks in the second round and picks 67, 78 and 100 in the third round. It seems unlikely that they would target a wide receiver as early as 36^th overall, unless they find a solution at OT before Day 2 of the draft. While it is possible their pick order could change between now and then, I have chosen to focus mainly on prospects who might reasonably be expected to be available from pick #40 onward.

Sadly, that excludes some of the prospects who make 2024 one of the strongest draft classes for big receivers in recent memory, including Marvin Harrison Jr (6-3, 209), Rome Odunze (6-3, 212) and Brian Thomas Jr. (6-3, 209). Fortunately for the Commanders, it is also a very deep draft for big pass catchers. There will be ample opportunities to add some size to their receiving corps on Day 2 and later.

Adonai Mitchell, Texas

6-2, 205 lbs, 4.34 sec 40, RAS 9.99 (Highest in draft class)

Key 2023 Stats: 14 games, 55 rec (64%), 845 yds, 11 TDs, ADOT 16.0, 1.8% drops, 6 FMT, 36.4% CTC, 3.2 YAC/Rec

Consensus Rank: 29

Commanders Meetings: Combine, Team Pro Day

Mitchell is a freakishly athletic, tall receiver, who will likely be picked before the Commanders hit the podium on Day 2. There is a small possibility he could fall to their second-round pick if enough teams view him as too raw for the first round and/or runs on other positions push him their way.

Mitchell is a 21 year old, third year senior, who played two seasons at Georgia. He transferred to Texas for his final year, where he shared targets with WR Xavier Worthy (consensus rank 44).

He profiles as a player who is still learning to play up to the level of his elite physical gifts. Despite having played less than other receivers in this draft range, he is already adept at beating press coverage and flashes ability to make spectacular catches outside his frame and break tackles after the catch. ESPN rates him as having the best lower body agility and body control among receivers in the draft class. If he continues to develop his ability to play to his size on contested catches and refine his route running, he has the potential to become an elite X receiver.

I get a strong sense that Mitchell’s best football is ahead of him, but probably on another team.

Keon Coleman, Florida State

6-3, 213 lbs, 4.61 sec 40, RAS 8.18

Key 2023 Stats

Receiving: 12 games, 50 rec (57.5%), 658 yds, 11 TDs, ADOT 12.4, 3.8% drops, 10 FMT, 33.3% CTC, 6.3 YAC/Rec

Punt Returns: 24 ret, 302 yds (12.6 YPA), long 72 yds, 1 muff

Consensus Rank: 38

Commanders Meetings: Combine, Team Pro Day

Coleman ran a slower than expected 40 time at the Combine, yet still managed to post a high Relative Athletic Score, thanks to exceptional performances in the jumps for a WR of his size. That seems like a pretty clear case of game speed trumping test scores. There is nothing slow about Coleman on film.

While some analysts question whether lack of straight line speed might limit Coleman’s ability to separate from NFL defenders, I suspect they are missing the point of the former basketball star’s game. Coleman draws on exceptional athleticism to make catches that few of his classmates can pull off, and outmuscles opponents to secure catches on underneath routes. He is also very good at adding yards after the catch.

One minor concern is that Coleman’s Contested Catch Rate in 2023 was lower than I would have expected, given his size, play strength and acrobatic ball skills, which pop off the tape.

Coleman draws comps to Drake London, and would complement Terry McLaurin by providing an elite chain mover and red zone target.

He would add further value to the Commanders as a different kind of mismatch weapon on punt returns. Coleman averaged 12.6 YPA on punt returns in 2023, which ranked 9^th in the draft class (min. 10 returns). His size and play strength create challenges for average-sized gunners to bring him down after the catch.

Much as I would love to see Keon Coleman slide to the Commanders in the second round, I actually like the next prospect even more.

Xavier Legette, South Carolina

6-1, 221 lbs, 4.39 sec 40, RAS 9.9

Key 2023 Stats

Receiving: 12 games, 71 rec (73.2%), 1,255 yds, 7 TDs, ADOT 13.8, 2.7% drops, 9 FMT, 47.6% CTC, 6.4 YAC/Rec

Kick Returns: 10 ret, 213 yds (21.3 YPA), long 43 yds, 0 muffs

Consensus Rank: 58

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

Legette could be the best option as a big, true X receiver for teams who missed out on the elite prospects in the first round. Washington could well be one of them. One Hogs Haven commenter recently described him as a faster A.J. Brown (please take a bow in the comments). That seems about right. Legette is another freakishly athletic big receiver, with 2023 production to match his elite athletic traits. ESPN rates him as the most physical pass-catcher with the best ball security in the draft class. He caught 113 passes for the Gamecocks without a single fumble.

I find it hard to imagine that a player with Legette’s skillset will remain available past the first round, and would not mind if the Commanders’ jump the consensus rank to select him 40^th overall. The biggest concern with Legette appears to be that he languished in South Carolina, posting fairly minimal production for four seasons before breaking out in 2023.

I am comfortable with Brett Kollmann’s explanation for the late breakout. In fact, Legette’s story is downright inspirational:

While he is earning a place on the WR depth chart, Legette could revitalize the Commanders’ kick return game. Prior to his breakout at WR, in 2022 he returned 15 kicks for 441 yds (29.4 avg), including a 102 yd TD, which made him the 6^th most productive kick returner in the NCAA that season. An infusion of explosiveness on kick returns would be well timed to coincide with the changes to the NFL’s kickoff rules coming into effect this season.

Legette is one of my “sprint to the podium” prospects in this draft class. I hope the Commanders get the opportunity to draft him anywhere from pick #40 onward. Click the link at the top of this listing for Jamual Forrest’s film breakdown..

Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky

5-11, 215 lbs, 4.45 sec 40 (unofficial), RAS 7.75

2023 Key Stats: 12 games, 79 rec (68.7%), 985 yds, 11 TDs, ADOT 5.5, 7.1% drops, 15 FMT, 23.5% CTC, 6.0 YAC/Rec, 8.6 YAC/Rec (tie-7^th in WR class)

Consensus Rank: 56

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

Corley is a different kind of big receiver to those preceding him in this listing. He is built like a running back and reminds some well-respected evaluators of Deebo Samuel. Except he is not as good a receiver as Deebo was entering the draft.

Like Samuel, Corley is a beast with the ball in his hands and becomes a mismatch problem for defensive backs after the catch. He recorded 692 YAC in 2023, which ranked 5^th in the NCAA, and he forced 17 missed tackles.

Potential issues with his game are that he is not a strong route runner and does not play to his size and strength in defeating press coverage or making contested catches. In fact, his 23.5% Contested Catch Rate ranked 155^th among 177 draft-eligible WRs (min. 30 targets). Texas A&M WR, Ainias Smith, who is 2” shorter and 25 lbs lighter than Corley, made contested catches at more than double that rate.

There are legitimate questions about whether Corley can earn catch opportunities at the NFL level, or whether a team will need to scheme him open. As you can see from his 5.5 yd ADOT, he was used almost exclusive at Western Kentucky on screens and short dumps to the flats. Would it be worthwhile for an NFL team to accommodate his particular strengths and weaknesses in the same way?

To be fair, those were the same issues draft analysts had with Deebo, and he worked out very well. Considering that Adam Peters scouted Deebo for the 49ers, the Commanders should be in good hands to separate truth from fiction about Corley. Nevertheless, I see him as a developmental prospect and would be disappointed if Washington drafts him as early as Day 2. That could be a problem unless the analysts have overrated him relative to NFL draft boards.

If Peters would like to draft a player who reminds him of Deebo, there might be a better option available later in the draft.

Devontez Walker, North Carolina

6-1.5, 193 lbs, 4.36 sec 40, RAS 9.76

2023 Key Stats: 8 games, 41 rec (62.1%), 699 yds, 7 TDs, ADOT 18.2 (4^th in class), 6.8% drops, 2 FMT, 58.8% CTC, 2.8 YAC/Rec

Consensus Rank: 68

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

Walker is one of the regulars in “draft sleepers” articles, which I consume voraciously this time year. For a receiver his size, he has great deep speed to stretch the field vertically and elite aerial ability to haul in receptions that might normally be overthrows. He has also shown tremendous improvement at winning jump balls, hauling in 58.8% of contested catches in 2023.

While Walker shows great potential on deep routes, he appears to lack the agility to gain separation on short and intermediate routes. That could limit him to a role as a deep ball specialist.

I suspect his Combine testing might have caused him to be overhyped by the media, particularly since his athletic traits are not matched by exceptional productivity in college. I would not be surprised to see him available on Day 3, where he could be good value at the Commanders’ picks in the fifth round. If the Commanders can pick him up that late, I like his chances of displacing the team’s current deep ball specialist from UNC for a spot near the bottom of the WR depth chart.

He feels like a better value for the Commanders if they add a fourth round pick, or in Round 5, than where the consensus board seems to place him.

Day 3 Prospects

Brenden Rice, USC

6-2, 208 lbs, 4.5 sec 40, RAS 7.17

2023 Key Stats: 12 games, 45 rec (64.3%), 791 yds, 12 TDs, ADOT 15.1, 4.3% drops, 9 FMT, 25% CTC, 5.2 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 111

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

I normally chuckle when “NFL bloodlines” is listed in draft profiles like it actually means something. When the prospect’s father is one of the greatest players in NFL history, maybe it’s time to sit up and take notice. Brenden is the same height and only 8 pounds heavier than his dad, Jerry. Some fans might be surprised to learn that Brenden’s 40 time is 0.1 seconds faster than his father’s. That, and his nose for the endzone might be where the similarities end.

The younger Rice is a physical receiver who uses buildup speed and plus ball skills to beat defenders on intermediate and long routes. Impressively, he scored on average once every 5.2 receptions throughout his college career. One area of his game that doesn’t seem to fit with the rest of his profile is that he had a much lower win rate on contested catches than I would have expected.

Nevertheless, despite a few wrinkles to his game, there is enough to work with to make Rice a good value near the start of Day 3. Rice coincided with Kliff Kingsbury in his final season at USC, which should give the Commanders the inside scoop on how well he might fit their new look offense.

Johnny Wilson, Florida State

6-6, 231 lbs, 4.52 sec 40, RAS 9.70

2023 Key Stats: 10 games, 41 rec (58.6%), 617 yds, 2 TDs, ADOT 13.8, 10.9% drops, 9 FMT, 40% CTC, 3.8 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 116

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

If you just want a big receiving target, look no further. Wilson is the biggest WR in this and almost any other draft class. In addition to standing 6’ 6” tall, his 35 3/8” arms and 10” hands give him an enormous catch radius. He is also exceptionally athletic for his size, with the 9^th highest Relative Athletic Score in the WR draft class.

At 23 years of age, with four years of college experience, Wilson is no spring chicken. But he still appears to be learning how to use his physical advantages to excel as a receiver. In particular, his Contested Catch Rate of 40.9% is lower than you would hope to see from a WR with a huge height advantage over just about every defensive back he plays against.

Wilson’s size and athletic traits might appeal to teams who project him to F-tight end. But if he hasn’t put it together in four years at Arizona and Florida State, it is reasonable to wonder how long it will take him to grasp a new position at the pro level. I view Wilson as a developmental prospect with some tantalizing traits to work with. But there are likely to be better options available at each of the Commanders’ Day 3 picks.

Luke McCaffrey, Rice

6-2, 198 lbs, 4.46 sec 40, RAS 9.44

2023 Key Stats: 13 games, 71 rec (59.2%), 992 yds, 13 TDs, ADOT 10.7, 4.1% drops, 10 FMT, 60.7% CTC, 6.0 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 145

Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

The Commanders have a vacancy at slot receiver. Why not fill it with a big slot receiver? Forget what I said earlier about NFL bloodlines. Luke is the brother of Christian McCaffrey and son of former Pro Bowl receiver Ed McCaffrey. While Luke may lack his father’s size and his brother’s explosiveness, he has inherited the most important family trait, being really good at football.

The younger McCaffrey has only played receiver for two years, having switched from playing QB in his first three college seasons at Nebraska and Rice. He needs to get better at releasing from press coverage, but he already displays exceptional focus, toughness and ball skills which have allowed him to become one of the best wide receivers at making contested catches in college football.

McCaffrey has the upside to become one of the steals of the 2024 draft. If the consensus rank is to be believed, he could be in play for the Commanders in the fifth round, and would have an edge to compete for the starting slot receiver position in training camp.

Cornelius Johnson, Michigan

6-3, 212 lbs, 4.44 sec 40, RAS 9.46

2023 Key Stats: 15 games, 47 rec (71.2%), 604 yds, 1 TD, ADOT 11.5, 9.6% drops, 4 FMT, 81.8% CTC, 2.6 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 169

Commanders Meetings: East-West Shrine Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

Why waste an early round pick on a big receiver with potential to win contested catches, when you can have the best contested catch artist in the draft class on Day 3? Technically, Johnson’s Contested Target Catch rate was second to the largely unknown Ryan Davis of New Mexico (83.3%), but it was better than Rome Odunze (75.0%) who is projected as a top 10 pick.

Johnson wins with height, explosive leaping ability, strong hands and physicality, which make him the premier above-the-rim artist in the draft class. He is not going to beat NFL corners with shifty route running, but he might not need to when he can beat them vertically, or just take the ball away from them. Johnson is also not limited to a role as a jump ball specialist. His long speed and physicality to break press coverage makes him a threat on intermediate and deep routes.

Johnson seems to particularly enjoy beating up defensive backs in the running game. He is an an excellent blocker in the secondary to open up opportunities for running backs down field.

Johnson was not used extensively in Michigan’s run-first offense. He gives me major sleeper vibes and would be well worth the investment of one of Washington’s fifth round picks.

Bub Means, Pittsburgh

6-1, 212 lbs, 4.43 sec 40, RAS 9.35

2023 Key Stats: 12 games, 41 rec (50.0%), 718 yds, 6 TD, ADOT 17.7, 4.7% drops, 4 FMT, 50.0% CTC, 5.2 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 252

Commanders Meetings: East-West Shrine Bowl, Team Pro Day

Bub gets referred to as a “poor man’s Malachi Corley”. In fact, Means is bigger, likely faster and is probably a better receiver than his more hyped classmate. Means has a lower catch rate; but that is likely due to his Average Depth of Target being nearly three times greater than Corley’s. He doesn’t have quite as eye-popping YAC figures as Corley, but he is more than twice as likely to come down with the ball in contested catch situations, which is what you want to see from a big receiver.

Means is a third year senior, who transferred from Louisiana Tech to Pittsburgh in 2022. His production nearly doubled in 2023, and he appears to be still developing as a receiver. He has basic route running skills, but mainly wins by using quick acceleration to beat press coverage and and separate from defenders. He has a large catch radius and good buildup speed to pick up yards after the catch.

He needs to improve his run blocking, but has all the physical tools to eventually excel in run support. Means is another potential sleeper who should be available to the Commanders later on Day 3, with upside to continue developing his skillset at the next level.

David White Jr, Western Carolina

6-2, 201 lbs, 4.58 sec 40, RAS 7.55

2023 Key Stats: 9 games, 28 rec (65.1%), 444 yds, 5 TD, ADOT 14.5, 6.7% drops, 4 FMT, 66.7% CTC, 4.4 YAC/Rec

MDDB Consensus Rank: 399

Commanders Meetings: Hula Bowl, East-West Shrine Bowl, Team Pro Day

If the previous two prospects have ordinary sleeper potential, White is my choice for the Deep Sleeper of the 2024 draft class. Normally, I wouldn’t get too excited about a player ranked 399^th on the consensus board, except for the fact that the Commanders have met with White three times already. They are also scouting his Catamounts teammate CB Rob Gattison, so I am sure that White is also on their radar.

White played three seasons for Western Carolina after transferring from Valdosta State. He flew under scouts’ radar until the Hula Bowl in January, where he seemingly emerged from nowhere and stood out for being unguardable by any of the CB prospects he was matched against.

His performance against draft-rated defensive backs earned him an invitation to the Shrine Bowl, where he once again earned accolades as the most impressive receiver in attendance.

It is hard to find much written about White. What little there is seems to be limited to reports from the college All Star games. He is described as having a unique combination of size and athleticism, which allows him to get in and out of breaks quickly and pluck the football out of the air. He also impressed with a tremendous release package off the line to gain separation and for his ability to make contested catches against NFL-bound defensive backs.

White is worth a flyer in the seventh round and would be my top priority UDFA if he manages to go undrafted. If the Commanders do sign him, he will instantly vault to the front of the pack as the early favorite for the 2024 Mason-Brennan Award.