BrisVegas Systems DraftBot 4.0 Redrafts the Rivera Era, Part 2: 2022 and 2023

It didn’t have to be this bad

In the first part of the re-draft, the DraftBot’s talent-first approach resulted in filling the two biggest needs facing Adam Peters as he commences his rebuild.

The DraftBot starts the 2022 offseason with a budding franchise QB entering the third season of his rookie contract. 2021 first round pick, Christian Darrisaw had a strong rookie season and shows promise to become a franchise left tackle.

However, the DraftBot’s decisions in early rounds of the previous two drafts, along with other developments, have left it with some roster holes of its own. Ryan Kerrigan’s departure after the 2020 season has left a vacuum at EDGE opposite Montez Sweat. The team could also use playmakers at offensive skill positions to give QB Tua Tagovailoa more weapons. The secondary and linebacking corps could also use help, with Landon Collins heading back to the Giants and no good option at safety in deep coverage.

Will the DraftBot focus on addressing those needs or continue its blind pursuit of premium talent wherever it can find it?

2022 Draft

DraftBot Avoids the Carson Wentz Trade

This is where the DraftBot’s timeline departs from Rivera’s. The big move of Rivera and Snyder’s offseason was trading two Day 2 picks and swapping 2022 second round picks with Indianapolis for Carson Wentz. The DraftBot’s success in acquiring a franchise QB in 2020 prevents the franchise from getting in such a desperate situation that trading draft picks for a QB who was about to be released seemed like a good idea. The DraftBot’s Commanders retain their original 2^nd and 3^rd round picks in this draft (#42, #73), and their 3^rd round pick in 2023.

Consensus Draft Board

Team Needs:

NFL.com: WR, S, CB

Mock Draft Database: WR, QB, S, CB, LB, IOL, OT

USA Today Touchdown Wire: WR, ILB, S

Bleacher Report: WR

PFF: QB, LB, IOL

Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images

Round 1, Pick 11

Rivera Pick: Trade back with Saints for picks 16, 98, 120

DraftBot Pick: S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame), Consensus Rank 4

Reach-Steal Score: +63.6%

Luxury-Need Score: -1.0

The DraftBot is amazed to see one of the elite prospects in the draft fall to its pick. It jumps at the opportunity. The value at pick #11 well exceeds what it estimates it could achieve in a trade.

A need was recognized at free safety in this draft, because Darrick Forrest did not break out until the following training camp. However, that was not the role that Hamilton played. Hamilton plays closer to the line of scrimmage, and plays the largest number of snaps at nickel corner with Baltimore. That role was manned adequately by Bobby McCain in 2021 and was not perceived to be a major need in this draft. Consequently, this was a luxury pick, with bigger needs at WR, FS, LB and CB.

Round 1, Pick 16 (from Saints)

Rivera Pick: WR Jahan Dotson (Penn State), Consensus Rank 31

Reach-Steal Score: -24.6%

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

Rivera got golf clap reviews from analysts outside Washington for trading back five spots from #11 to recoup some of the draft capitol he squandered in the Carson Wentz trade. Then he reached to grab the last WR with a first round grade, joining in the hysteria as the league overreacted to the market correction at WR in the preceding free agency period. What may have been lost in the frenzy is that WRs are exceptionally poor value at this point in the draft, because there is no difference in outcomes between WRs drafted in the first and second rounds.

Round 1 Player Outcomes:

Kyle Hamilton has established himself as a game changing talent, earning Pro Bowl and All Pro nods in his first season as a full time starter.

Despite getting the lions’ share of opportunities, Dotson has yet to pull past Curtis Samuel to become the Commanders’ second leading WR. In two NFL seasons he has struggled to gain separation to draw targets and to catch balls. In 2023 he trailed 5 WRs selected after him in the second round in Yards/Tgt, and 3 of them in offensive Success Rate.

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Round 2, Pick 42

DraftBot Pick: WR George Pickens (Georgia), Consensus Rank 46

Reach-Steal Score: -9.5 %

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

The DraftBot has 10 players bunched closely at the top of its board, excluding QB Malik Willis (Consensus Rank 28) who is not a fit to back up starter Tua Tagovailoa, and also strikes it as overrated. The player with the greatest potential to upgrade a starting position is a tight choice between WR George Pickens (vs Curtis Samuel WR2, Cam Sims WR3), TE Trey McBride (vs Logan Thomas), and LB Chad Muma (unknown starter, since the DraftBot did not draft Jamin Davis). WR has the highest position value at this pick and is also considered by most to be the team’s top need.

Round 2, Pick 47 (from Colts)

Rivera Pick: DT Phidarian Mathis (Alabama), Consensus Rank 68

Reach-Steal Score: -30.9%

Luxury-Need Score: +1.0

The Commanders had not extended DT Daron Payne to this point, and it seemed likely he would hit free agency after the season. Rivera went back to his preferred farm league team to find an eventual replacement. Even Mathis was surprised to hear his name called this early.

Round 2 Player Outcomes:

George Pickens quickly established himself as a premium starting WR for Pittsburgh. In 2023 he had 63 receptions for 1,140 yds (16^th among WRs) and led the league in Yards Per Reception (18.1). Impressively, he did that catching passes from the 27^th ranked QB.

Phidarian Mathis lost his rookie season to injury. In 2023, he played 203 defensive snaps and was one of the worst DTs in the league.

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Round 3, Pick 73

DraftBot Pick: OT Bernhard Raimann (Central Michigan), Consensus Rank 39

Reach-Steal Score: +46.6%

Luxury-Need Score: -1.0

Raimann is the top player left on the DraftBot’s board. The next closest players are QBs Desmond Ridder (Consensus Rank 42) and Matt Corral (Consensus Rank 44). The Commanders don’t have a pressing need for an OT, with Christian Darrisaw locking down the left side and Sam Cosmi coming off a strong rookie season at RT. However, Raimann bolsters depth at a crucial position and can compete with Cornelius Lucas for the swing tackle role.

Round 3, Pick 98 (from Saints)

Rivera Pick: RB Brian Robinson Jr (Alabama), Consensus Rank 105

Reach-Steal Score: -7.1%

Luxury-Need Score: -1.0

Antonio Gibson’s 6 fumbles in 2021 seem to have shaken Rivera’s confidence in him as the lead back. Rivera seems to have felt a greater need for a sure handed power runner than the media analysts, so he circled back to his favorite supplier to fill it. I loved this pick at the time. Robinson went about where he was expected to go.

Round 3 Player Outcomes:

The DraftBot gave himself a better talent pool to pick from than Rivera and consequently achieved better results for the team. Raimann was picked by the Colts 77^th overall and became the starting LT as a rookie. In 2023, he was PFF’s 8^th ranked OT. On the DraftBot’s Commanders, he would have provided an upgrade at RT when Cosmi moved inside to RG.

Brian Robinson was a good value pick at the end of the third round and has become a better than average starting RB who excelled as a receiver out of the backfield in 2023. However, the value gained from this pick is nowhere close to that of a quality starting OT.

2023 Draft

Consensus Draft Board

Team Needs:

NFL.com: OL, CB, TE

PFF: CB

SI: CB, OT, QB

Sharp Football Analysis: QB, OL, CB

Mock Draft Database: CB, OT, IOL, TE, QB, LB, Edge

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Round 1, Pick 16

Rivera Pick: CB Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State), Consensus Rank 38

Reach-Steal Score: -137.5%

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

DraftBot Pick: CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), Consensus Rank 10

Reach-Steal Score: +37.5%

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

Rivera wanted to increase turnovers on defense, and zeroed in on the NCAA career pick-six leader. With his laser-focus on turnovers, he might have overlook the fact that there were much better CBs available.

While some felt there were bigger needs at OT or QB, there was little doubt that CB was a major need, and Forbes did appear to be well suited to Del Rio’s zone-heavy coverage schemes.

The DraftBot considered three players to be much better options at this pick: Gonzales, EDGE Myles Murphy (Clemson), CB/S Brian Branch (Alabama). A scheme-versatile lock-down CB1 has the greatest potential impact on the Commanders’ roster among three good options. CB Joey Porter was rated equally to Gonzales, but is a press-man CB, and not a fit to Del Rio’s scheme as the DraftBot understood it.

Player Outcomes:

Despite the obvious fit, the Commanders inexplicably chose to play Forbes in man coverage against teams’ number 1 receivers. Predictably, he was picked on heavily and regularly exploited for explosive gains, ending the season with the 4^th highest Yardage Per Reception and 15^th highest TD Rate allowed out of 124 CBs. If the Commanders had wanted a CB for man coverage, Joey Porter Jr and Gonzalez would seem to have been better options, as well as Deonte Banks or several options who would likely be available in the second round.

Gonzales was selected with the next pick by the Patriots. He looked comfortable in coverage in four starts, but went out for the seasons with an injury in Week 4.

Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

Round 2, Pick 47

Rivera Pick: CB/S Quan Martin (Illinois), Consensus Rank 84

Reach-Steal Score: -78.7%

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

DraftBot Pick: John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota), Consensus Rank 43

Reach-Steal Score: +8.5%

Luxury-Need Score: +0.5

Rivera needed a replacement for nickelback Bobby McCain, who was the second most utilized starter in Del Rio’s defense in 2022. So he reached more than a full round down the board to get his man, leaving a lot of better talent for other teams.

The two players at the top of the DraftBot’s board are WR Josh Downs (rank 42) and C John Michael Schmitz (rank 43), who are too close to split. Schmitz is considered one of the most NFL ready interior lineman in the class, and might provide a better option than Commanther Tyler Larsen in case anything happens to FA acquisition Nick Gates’ surgically repaired leg.

Player Outcomes:

Martin looked lost in coverage early in the season, but started to put it together in run defense in 5 starts down the stretch. He might be better in more of a box safety role than in primary coverage as a slot defender.

Schmitz was picked 57^th overall by the Giants and started 13 games. He finished the season with the lowest PFF blocking grades of 37 NFL centers (min 276 snaps), right behind Tyler Larsen in 36^th place. The more objectively based Blocking Efficiency metric ranks him 35^th, 2 places ahead of Larsen. Gates ranked 31^st. On a positive note, Schmitz has plenty of room for improvement.

Photo by Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

Round 3, Pick 79

Rivera Pick: traded to Colts for Carson Wentz

DraftBot Pick: WR Josh Downs (UNC), Consensus Rank 42

Reach-Steal Score: +46.8%

Luxury-Need Score: +0.5

The DraftBot can’t believe its luck that the player it considered taking at the previous pick is still available. The diminutive slot receiver adds another weapon to Tagovailoa’s arsenal, and provides additional value as a dynamic punt returner. He is by far the top-rated player who fits the team at this pick. The Commanders don’t have a pressing need for another receiver this season, but the value is too good to pass up.

Round 3, Pick 97 (comp pick)

Rivera Pick: C Ricky Stromberg (Arkansas), Consensus Rank 142 (PFN Industry Consensus Board)

Reach-Steal Score: -46.4%

Luxury-Need Score: +0.5

DraftBot Pick: CB/S Antonio Johnson (Texas A&M), Consensus Rank 48

Reach-Steal Score: +102.1%

Luxury-Need Score: +2.0

Rivera adds a mauler to bolster the depth behind new starter Nick Gates. Stromberg didn’t make The Athletic’s consensus board, so I had to get his consensus rank from Pro Football Network. This is a solid pick this late in the draft, even if the analysts think it was a little too soon.

The top player on the DraftBot’s board is Ohio State OT Dawand Jones (Rank 46). However, Jones raised character concerns in interviews and plays a position where the DraftBot’s Commanders are very deep. Right behind Jones is Antonio Johnson, who will compete with Ifeatu Melifonwu and Percy Butler as depth behind starters Kyle Hamilton, Kam Curl and Darrick Forrest (unless Melifonwu wonthe start over Forrest). The Commanders now have potential options to replace Curl and Forrest when they hit free agency after the 2023 and 2024 seasons, respectively.

Player Outcomes:

Stromberg flashed potential at guard in the preseason, but missed most of his rookie season to injury. He did not get enough playing time to draw any conclusions.

Johnson was one of the biggest sliders in this draft class, falling all the way to the Jaguars at pick #162 in the 5^th round. It is not clear why. After starting out on special teams, he got playing time on defense from Week 12 and started the final three games of the season, predominantly as a slot defender. In 172 defensive snaps, he recorded 12 tackles and 2 assists with 6 defensive stops, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 1 sack, while allowing a stingy 39.2 passer rating in coverage.

FINAL VERDICT

To sum up, the following table compares the players that Rivera and the DraftBot selected with their Day 1 and Day 2 picks. Players are color coded according to my grading system:

Blue – elite

Red – above average starter

Pink – young player with Red or Blue potential

Gray – JAG, average to below average starter or worse

How did the DraftBot do so much better than the old football coach? Rather than forcing picks to fit immediate needs and a curious ideal player profile, it allowed the best talent with the best team fit to fall to its picks. It prioritized taking players at positions with high impact and replacement cost with its highest value picks and it didn’t squander draft capital. By proactively taking the best talent when it was available, the DraftBot avoided creating the biggest roster holes that Rivera left for his successor.

It also didn’t cheat by using hindsight to pick players who greatly outperformed their draft status, like Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was just outside the top 10 on its board when it picked Jabril Cox. All of the players it picked were selected around where they were expected to go.

Three of the DraftBot’s best picks would likely have been considered luxury picks by instant draft graders:

• QB Tua Tagovailoa to compete with a 2^nd year QB picked in the first round
• S Kyle Hamilton at a position with an adequate starter with bigger needs at WR, FS, LB and iOL
• OT Berhard Raimann to back up LT Christian Darrisaw and promising 2^nd year RT Sam Cosmi, with bigger needs at LB and iOL

The DraftBot didn’t hit on all of its picks. Interestingly, some of its biggest flops were need picks, such as OT Josh Jones and LB Jabril Cox. Based on his rookie season, C John Michael Schmitz might be headed that direction as well.

Updating the roster with the DraftBots picks and passes and recent signings gives Peters the following depth chart to work with, heading into his first free agency and draft in Washington (starters in bold):

Offense

QB – Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Howell, Jake Fromm

RB – Chris Rodriguez, Jaret Patterson, Kazmeir Allen

WR – George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, Dyami Brown, Mitchell Tinsley, Dax Milne, Brycen Tremayne, Davion Davis

LT – Christian Darrisaw, Alex Akingbulu, Josh Jones, Julian Good-Jones

LG – Chris Paul, Braeden Daniels

C – John Michael Schmitz

RG – Sam Cosmi, Mason Brooks

RT – Bernhard Raimann, Andrew Wylie, Trent Scott

TE – Zach Ertz, John Bates, Cole Turner, Armani Rogers

Defense

DT – Jon Allen, Daron Payne, John Ridgeway, Benning Potoa’e

DE – K.J. Henry, Shaka Toney, Andre Jones, Jalen Harris, Joshua Pryor, Brandon Bouyer-Randle

LB – Keandre Jones, Brandon Bouyer-Randle

CB – Kendall Fuller, Christian Gonzalez, Nick Whiteside, Tariq Castro-Fields, Christian Holmes, Kyu Blu Kelly, De’Angelo Mandell

Nickel/S – Kyle Hamilton, Antonio Johnson

S – Ifeatu Melifonwu, Darrick Forrest, Percy Butler

By prioritizing talent and fit, the DraftBot has left Peters with an offensive roster that is just a few pieces short of being a playoff contender. The defense has major holes, but also has a better set of building blocks than Rivera left him. And that was done without even touching the Day 2 picks or free agent decisions.