Cowboys could have just enough success in 2024 to fail

This is going to be an interesting offseason to monitor for the Cowboys.

If you are part of the audience for this article, the odds are great that you are a Dallas Cowboys fan. After all, that is why this site exists. For those visiting from enemy territory, or just those that come here to enjoy a little schadenfreude from time to time, well, we’re glad to have you, but we are sure you understand that you aren’t the target audience for this piece. Being a fan means that you want the team to win, and by win, we mean hoist a Lombardi trophy in February.

But there are dichotomies for many. There is a group of fans that do not think Mike McCarthy is the right head coach for the team. Others, particularly those who have been fans for a long time, have never forgiven Jerry Jones for the unceremonious way he dumped Tom Landry, or his long reluctance to put Jimmy Johnson in his totally deserved spot in the Ring of Honor. On a less emotional level. There are a ton of things that lead to doubts about Jones and his family really knowing what they are doing, given that the team has been in a decades-long slump since Johnson made his exit. That makes them begrudge any success for which the ownership can claim responsibility since it just gives them encouragement to keep on doing things the same way.

All of those factors create an odd, bittersweet quality to winning. Part of it is just human nature. Everyone resists being proven wrong. A climb to the mountaintop in 2024 would be evidence that the current leadership of the team can get it right and fly in the face of those who don’t like the ownership or the head coach. One result of this would be that McCarthy would get a new contract and the Jones family would engage in a lot of patting themselves on the back for the brilliant job they did. While that may be a path to several more years of success, many would argue that winning it all was a blip or aberration, and the team would quickly return to its struggles. Only time would tell if they are correct or not, but there will be those who make that argument until they are proven wrong – or right.

Still, many would gladly accept one year of glory even if it is followed by a return to what has been business as usual for the Cowboys for many more seasons. The problem is that getting to and winning the Super Bowl is just hard. We may be seeing the dawning of another major dynasty in the Kansas City Chiefs, and in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers are going to be a major obstacle. Other franchises like the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers seem to be ascending. Last year we saw Dallas make it to the number two seed largely due to the vagaries of the schedule, which turned out to be rather weak. A large part of that is the NFC East. The Washington Commanders were bad enough that they have gone with a new head coach and staff, and both the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles have made major changes at the coordinator positions. That is usually a more long-term plan than a path to immediate improvement as it normally takes new coaches more than a single season to get their scheme fully up and running, and in the case of the Commanders, a new culture is going to be a major goal. In the case of the Eagles, with their major collapse at the end of last year, they may have not gone far enough as there is an argument to be made that Nick Sirianni may be the real problem.

We discussed this overall idea on the latest episode of Ryled Up on the Blogging The Boys podcast network. Make sure to subscribe to our network so you do not miss any of our shows! Apple devices can subscribe here and Spotify users can subscribe here.

Of course, that can also be posited about Dallas as well. They also folded down the stretch against good teams, culminating in another horrible showing in the playoffs. But rather than making a big move, Jones decided to let McCarthy finish out his contract in a make-or-break year. It is very much in character for how the team is run. Incremental changes are the preferred approach, and had Dan Quinn not gone to Washington to try and resurrect that franchise, they would have brought him back as well. That almost happened. The defense was a big part of the repeated failures last year, and it nearly cost Quinn his second shot at a head coaching job. We will get to judge whether he is an example of the Peter Principle.

The relative incompetence of their NFC East rivals may be enough to get the Cowboys back into the playoffs, but it is hard to have confidence that will turn out any different than it has for the past several years. For some, that might actually appear to be a better path forward for the team. It might actually spur Jones to finally take a needed risk to bring some fresh new thinking into the organization.

That is probably a vain hope. That incremental approach the owner favors includes a strong disposition to bring in veteran coaches with a long track record. We saw that play out in the hire of Mike Zimmer to replace Quinn, and the reports that Rex Ryan was a possible fallback candidate, as well as the interview with Ron Rivera, is clear evidence that is still alive and well. There is a reasonable suspicion that Zimmer is also seen as a possible candidate to supplant McCarthy should things go badly. We’ve seen that play out before in how Jason Garrett got the head coaching job after serving as the offensive coordinator before Wade Phillips was fired mid-season.

If we look at the most likely outcome this season, it is that we see more of the same. The team will make it to the playoffs but flame out, possibly in spectacular fashion like they have against the 49ers and Packers lately. But if they have a bit more success and don’t put a display of staggering incompetence on the field in the playoffs, the situation becomes very cloudy. Say they win in the wild card round. Then they either lose narrowly or manage to win in the divisional round, so the team at least appears like one of the better ones. If they pull out that win and make the NFC championship game before exiting, it really complicates matters. That could lead Jones to believe he just needs to give McCarthy and Zimmer another shot by bringing them back for 2025, assuming Zimmer doesn’t get hired away to lead another franchise.

Is that what we really want? Regression to the mean is hard to avoid unless you have a great combination of coaching and talent like the Chiefs and 49ers. Neither seems to be the case for Dallas. They are more just good enough to keep getting close but never lighting a cigar. If Jones decides to keep the band together as much as he can for 2025, it is far more likely they take a step or two back. It would be rinse and repeat, something that has made us so weary.

We will wish for ultimate success for the team, but that is a long shot. The Cowboys need a real shakeup, and it needs to be in the thinking of the ownership. That feels nearly impossible. We’ll just offer a word of caution about getting too optimistic. This team has so much to prove before that is justified.