Daily Slop – 5 Apr 24: Washington Post sets Commanders’ expected ‘24 win total at 7.5

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Washington Post (paywall)

Early Commanders win total paints pessimistic view for 2024

DraftKings and FanDuel recently released predicted win totals for 2024, and the short-term outlook for the Washington Commanders — despite optimism felt by fans about the team’s new leadership — isn’t pretty. The Commanders rank near the bottom of the NFL with a win total of 7½, meaning the oddsmakers expect them to finish under .500. Only eight teams were given a lower win total.

The top teams in the NFL, by this analysis, are the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers — each expected to be five points per game better than an average team on a neutral field. The bottom two teams are the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots, each expected to be 6½ points per game worse than an average team on a neutral field. The Commanders are expected to be 1½ points per game worse than an average team on a neutral field, tying them with the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks as the 23rd-best teams in the NFL.

These power ratings also can be used to determine how likely a team is to finish with a specific record. For example, when Washington plays the Dallas Cowboys at home, the Commanders should be two-point underdogs. Underdogs of this magnitude typically win 40 percent of the time. On the road against the New York Giants, the Commanders should be slight favorites, giving them a 45 percent chance to win. We can do this exercise for every game and then simulate the season 1,000 times to establish probabilities that the Commanders will finish with zero wins, one win, two wins, etc.

The most probable scenario for Washington in 2024? A seven- or eight-win season. There is an 18 percent chance the Commanders finish with 10 or more wins and a 13 percent chance they finish with five or fewer.

[T]his early drop of win totals serves as a reminder: This franchise will probably take a little longer to return to playoff contention.

ESPN

What Commanders coach Dan Quinn wants in a quarterback

Like any coach, Quinn wants to see mental and physical toughness, accuracy and arm strength. But he also knows how he likes to mess with quarterbacks as a defensive coordinator — and, as a result, what he wants to see from them.

“How quickly can they process something? ‘OK, it looks like zone but it’s really man-to-man. It’s two-high [safeties], it’s one high,’” Quinn said. “All the triggers you want to get to, can you do it after the ball gets in his hand? Can we disguise [defenses] to make them really have to figure it out after the snap? The best of the best? ‘I can process as I’m taking the ball, as I’m going through the play.’

“That’s what I look for. How do they respond when the unblocked blitzer comes?”

“How quickly can [he] anticipate when those things happen? So, I’ve really been mindful of watching and say not just the throwing motion or the accuracy, but what happens? Can you get out of a bad play?”

“With the quarterback you really have to watch every single play to say did he get them out of a bad play here in a run game? Did he, you know, move outside? So, it’s not just the throws, you encompass everything,” Quinn said. “Don’t just look at the throws but look at an entire game. And then you’ll really have an assessment about ‘Did you scramble to remain a passer? Did you know sometimes a throw away was the best decision right here?’ It wouldn’t show that on the stat sheet, but that was actually a really good decision. And so those are the things that I’ve been digging in on.”

Washington Post (paywall)

Projecting the first-round QBs, including J.J. McCarthy to Washington

Quarterbacks will probably be the first four selections, with at least one trade likely within the top four slots. I anticipate six quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix — will be selected in the first round, no matter what mock drafts are projecting. The appetite for this quarterback class will only grow as the players visit team facilities and spend considerable time with coaches, general managers and, most importantly, owners.

At least a quarter of the league’s franchises are preparing for the possibility of grabbing a quarterback in the first round: Chicago, Washington, New England, the New York Giants (and possibly the Jets, depending on whom you speak to), Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas, New Orleans and perhaps Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams.

“I can’t tell you exactly what order they’re going to go in after Chicago takes Caleb Williams,” an agent for one surefire first-round quarterback said, “but they will go one, two, three, four. And once that happens, the other two probably don’t have to wait that long.”

Here’s how I would project the order in which these six quarterbacks will be selected — and what I’m hearing about their potential suitors.

J.J. McCarthy, Washington Commanders, No. 2 overall

Sometimes the betting markets reveal impeding reality, and I am inclined to believe there is merit to the Michigan star’s rising odds to go second overall. McCarthy being a top-five pick shouldn’t come as a shock if you’ve been reading along — even with his opportunities limited by Michigan riding its running game — and his maturity, coachability and overall quality are shining through in the staged environment of scripted spring showcases.

When I asked the second evaluator for comparisons for the top four quarterbacks, he said this about McCarthy: “Looks like another [Brock] Purdy to me.” Commanders GM Adam Peters was part of the brain trust that took Purdy in San Francisco, although that was in the final round.

Some also have used Kirk Cousins — whom 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan helped draft and championed in Washington — as a comparison. “He’s the kind of point guard who really fits that offense. His maturity is off the charts. Owners will fall in love with him.”

The Athletic (paywall)

NFL coaches, execs split on which QBs Commanders, Patriots should take at Nos. 2 and 3

The Athletic polled seven team executives, coaches and scouts over the past week for an updated evaluation of the QB class. Specifically, they were asked what they believed the Commanders would do at No. 2.

Three of them believed Daniels would be the pick. Two thought it would be Maye. One predicted McCarthy.

The last executive, who is not selecting in the top 10, didn’t offer a prediction but said a trade-down would be the wisest choice. The executive believed the drop-off from the second quarterback to the next tier wasn’t too steep, and the ability to recoup a haul of future draft picks would be too enticing to pass up.

So what’s changed? All three quarterbacks recently finished their pro days, and it sounds like McCarthy came out of them the biggest winner.

“J.J. killed his workout,” an executive said.

The wild card is McCarthy. If, as one executive predicted, McCarthy goes second, TV ratings in New England could spike to historic levels on draft night. If McCarthy goes third, teams like the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders could be tripping over themselves to acquire the Arizona Cardinals’ No. 4 selection. With Maye and Daniels not long ago viewed as a pipe dream for teams outside the top three, a stratospheric leap by McCarthy could significantly adjust several teams’ draft plans.

Commanders.com

Washington is the perfect spot for Jeremy Chinn

“I think that’s perfect for my game and what I can do on the football field,” Chinn said.

The Commanders and new defensive coordinator joe Whitt Jr. are in the process of remolding their defensive philosophy heading into the 2024 season. Their mindset is going to be based on physicality, creating turnovers and…you guessed it…running and hitting.

It shouldn’t take long to see why Chinn and Whitt were attracted to each other. Whitt, who came to Washington with head coach Dan Quinn, gave some fiery sentiments about his expectations for his unit when he addressed the media in February. There’s a reason why the Commanders haven’t spent much time explaining what scheme they’re going to use on that side of the ball. The structure, Whitt said, doesn’t matter to him.

The most important question is whether his defense is creating chaos for offenses.

The way Chinn sees it, being part of Quinn and Whitt’s defense in Washington is the right situation for him to highlight his best traits. Quinn played a vital role in turning around a Cowboys defense that gave up 29.6 points per game in 2020. In the time that he was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator, the defense finished top 10 in points allowed, ranking fifth during the 2023 season. The Cowboys were also fifth in total yards allowed and tied for 12th in turnovers.

“Just seeing what he was able to do in Dallas and also in Seattle, just his style. Just run-and-hit-type defenses,” Chinn said.

“I’m just excited for this opportunity that’s in front of me,” Chinn said. “I’m ready to take full advantage of it, and I can’t wait to get to work.”

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PHOTOS | Commanders offseason workouts, Day 3

Take a look at the Washington Commanders as they go through their first week of prep for the 2024 season

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Bleeding Green Nation

Report: Eagles re-sign Avonte Maddox

The CB is coming back to Philly on a new one-year deal.

Just a few weeks after the Eagles released Avonte Maddox, the team and CB are re-uniting on a new one-year deal, per reports.

This move was expected, but still took a little while to materialize. Maddox is a great player when he’s healthy, but being available has been a big issue the past two seasons, and made his nearly $7 million price tag in 2024 a bit hefty.

Maddox will give some continuity to the DB group, and with C.J. Gardner-Johnson returning to Philly, the team will have several options for how they want to arrange their secondary.

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ESPN

NFL draft QB hits, misses: What history says about 2024 class

Being an NFL fan who pays close attention to the draft requires you to keep two entirely different realities in mind. One is the universe we’re all collectively in right now, a few weeks before the draft, in which everybody is excited. The players at the top of the draft are can’t-miss generational prospects. Every player is going to be a hit. Every team is going to fill its needs. April is the most optimistic month of the NFL calendar.

And yet, I just showed you the data. It’s not going to be much different at other positions than it is at quarterback. Nearly half of the quarterbacks who get drafted in Round 1 turn out to be bitter disappointments. For all the advancements we’ve made in analytics, access to film, historical knowledge and context, that hasn’t changed. The 2021 quarterback class might turn out to be the most disappointing in league history, and it’s not going to stop the teams at the top of the 2024 draft from taking as many as four more in the top five picks.

When teams take a QB first overall, they get …

Best: Peyton Manning

80th percentile: Joe Burrow

Average: Jared Goff

20th percentile: David Carr

Worst: Jamarcus Russell

Would Bears fans be satisfied if Williams had Goff’s career through eight seasons? My guess is probably not, but maybe they should be, because he’s probably the closest comparison for what an average first overall QB pick performs like in the NFL. The guys right around him, by my estimation, are Trevor Lawrence and Michael Vick.

When teams take a QB in the top three, they get …

Best: Peyton Manning

80th percentile: Eli Manning

Average: Jim Everett

20th percentile: Joey Harrington

Worst: Ryan Leaf

Let’s expand the group and include every quarterback taken with the first, second or third overall picks, because we expect to see three passers chosen in that range later this month. There’s a handful of quarterbacks taken at Nos. 2 or 3 who outperformed or are outperforming many of the first overall picks, with Matt Ryan, Steve McNair and C.J. Stroud as examples, but many of the players added to the mix here lean more on the disappointing side.

You can see how the expectations are diminished as a result. Goff is a three-time Pro Bowler with a significant playoff résumé. Everett, a fellow former Rams quarterback, made it to the Pro Bowl once and took Los Angeles to the conference championship once, where it was blown out by the 49ers in 1990. He was a 10-year starter in the NFL, but only six of those years produced an above-average passer rating after adjusting for era.

If Everett is a little too far into the past for your preferences, a more modern example right around him in average ranking would be Carson Wentz. Most of Wentz’s value came in one season, when he was among the favorites to win MVP in 2017 before tearing an ACL in December. Wentz didn’t play the rest of the way, but he did enough to get the Eagles in position to win the top seed in the NFC, and Nick Foles carried them the rest of the way to a title.

Wentz had two more solid seasons as a starter in Philadelphia and an underrated year in Indianapolis, but it ended poorly in both stops and then again in Washington. Is that short peak better than that of Vinny Testaverde, who played forever while mostly posting below-average numbers? If a team is drafting a quarterback in the top three, it likely would prefer what Wentz did, even given how his tenures ended.

Deadspin

Report: Texans WR Stefon Diggs’ contract only for one season

New Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs will be a free agent following the 2024 season after having the final three years of his contract “wiped out,” ESPN reported Thursday.

Diggs will make $22.52 million in guaranteed money in 2024 after the Texans moved the $3.5 million he’s owed in 2025 to this season, per the report.

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