Dan Quinn’s stock has spiked upwards since February; Commanders fans open to trading up for OT in 1st round

Survey results!!

The Dan Quinn experience

Dan Quinn is a lot more popular with Washington fans than he ever had been before. At the time he was hired, there was a lot of public disappointment that:

a. he wasn’t Ben Johnson

b. he wasn’t Mike Macdonald

c. he was a defensive-minded coach

d. he was a “retread”; that is, a guy who had been previously fired from a head coaching job (Atlanta Falcons)

But DQ has risen in the estimation of Washington fans — Hogs Haven readers, at least.

Ninety-nine percent of those responding to this week’s Reacts survey felt the same or better about Dan Quinn than they did when his hiring became public knowledge at the beginning of February, with nearly 8 out of 10 Hogs Haven readers saying that they feel better now than they did then.

It is, of course, normal for opinions to swing positively for a guy once he joins the organization. Once he’s signed, he’s in the club; he’s one of ‘us’.

But I get the feeling that this goes beyond simply saying that Dan Quinn may be a retread, but now he’s our retread. I get the definite impression that, as Washington fans have gotten a close look at Quinn, paid attention to the coaching staff he’s assembled, listened to comments from free agents who have signed with the team, and heard what coaches, players and analysts from around the NFL universe have had to say about him, fans of the burgundy & gold have genuinely started to re-assess and upgrade their views of the new head coach.

The two most common themes that seemed to appear in the comments of the Survey article were:

1. Quinn’s ability to put together a coaching staff – Many people have commented since Quinn took over in Washington that it seems unlikely that other candidates for the job like Mike Macdonald or Ben Johnson would have had the connections or respect around the league needed to attract guys like Joe Whitt, Kliff Kingsbury, Anthony Lynn, Ken Norton, Brian Johnson, and others.
2. The ability of Quinn and his staff to make Washington a desirable destination for veteran free agents – The Commanders have not spent big on free agency, but have quietly signed over 20 veterans to come to or return to Washington. This is a massive roster makeover, and we’ve heard from players like Ertz, Chinn, Luvu, Mariota, Ekeler, and Wagner that it was the coaching staff that made them decide to sign with the burgundy & gold.

I have to say that I’ve taken the journey along with the majority of respondents in this week’s survey. I was initially a bit disappointed that the team hadn’t hired a first-time head coach from the coordinator ranks. For the same reasons that so many people have already enumerated over the past two months, I now feel as if Josh Harris and Adam Peters may have been the last to cross the line with a hire, but may have ‘won’ the race by making the best head coaching hire of 2024.

I can’t say that my opinions are always (or often) in sync with those of Brian Mitchell, but in this case, he speaks for me.

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The job isn’t done

The job of re-making the Washington franchise won’t be accomplished with one hire. It also won’t be a matter of one year of free agency or a single draft. The fact is, this is just Year One of the resurrection of the dynasty that I remember from the years that followed my graduation from college in May 1981.

It started, of course, when Josh Harris and his partners purchased the team last July. The new owners made a few small moves during the ‘23 offseason and regular season, but they really began to put their stamp on the organization in January of this year.

Hiring Adam Peters as the GM was the first huge long-term step.

This was followed by the hiring of Quinn, and his subsequent assembly of what appears to be a high-quality coaching staff that probably required some serious financial commitment from the owners.

We’ve seen what the front office did in the first stage of veteran free agency. A basement and floor have been constructed for the 2024 roster, with a few bricks laid for 2025 and beyond.

But the work is not done. This roster will require at least another offseason of free agency and the 2025 draft to be able to think seriously about having playoff success.

In fact, the roster isn’t even ready for the upcoming 2024 season yet.

Consider what ESPN’s John Keim wrote this week:

Washington does not have a finished roster by any means. The Commanders still need to find a key player by adding a left tackle; the draft is deep at that position.

The Commanders’ only move at the offensive tackle position in free agency this offseason was the re-signing of swing tackle Cornelius Lucas. Washington’s roster options at the position are so uncertain that fans can only assume that, if the team had to play with the roster it has today, Lucas would start at Left Tackle while Andrew Wylie and Sam Cosmi would comprise the options for starting right tackle.

It seems clear that the team will need to address one or both tackle positions in the NFL draft. If feels like the team will need to come away with at least one guy who can be both a short-term and long-term starter for the Commanders offense.

With the #2 overall pick almost certainly destined to be used for a quarterback, the question is whether Washington can meet its needs at the offensive tackle position with its remaining top-100 picks (Nos. 36, 40, 67, 78, 100).

Trading into the first round to draft an offensive tackle

In our other Reacts survey question this week, we asked if Washington should trade back into the first round to draft an offensive tackle, much as the Redskins did in 2019 when they moved from 46th overall to 26th overall to draft Montez Sweat.

Only 15% of respondents rejected the idea outright. Just under half the respondents said ‘yes’, while just over a third said that it would depend on the player and the terms of the trade.

I can’t identify the player involved, but I can outline one possible trade package based on the Rich Hill trade valuation chart and using only 2024 picks, leaving all the 2025 picks intact.

The 21st pick in the draft is currently held by the Miami Dolphins, who pick one spot ahead of the Eagles. It seems like a pretty good spot to jump in and grab a solid prospect at OT.

Per the current version of the Rich HIll trade chart, the Dolphins’ 21st overall pick is worth 261 points.

To get very close to that total using only 2024 picks, the Commanders could offer:

• #40 – 149 pts
• #67 – 75 pts
• #100 – 35 pts

Total = 259 points

That’s a 3-for-1 trade that would get the Commanders in range to draft a 2nd-tier offensive tackle.

To get an idea which offensive tackles might be in play at that pick, I looked at The Athletic’s consensus big board as of March 19th. This list isn’t the projected draft order, but the consensus rankings irrespective of positional value. The positional value factor will move quarterbacks up and running backs down on the list.

Here are top OT rankings from that consensus board:

This is what a “deep” tackle class looks like on a consensus board. You can see that the grades given by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com are largely the same for 8 of the top 9 prospects.

If Washington stands pat at 36th & 40th overall, it looks as if they are likely to be choosing from among the third-tier tackles in the draft, who are still very good prospects. By trading one of these two picks to get into the range of the 21st overall pick, it looks like Washington would have the opportunity to grab one of the 2nd tier tackles, and still have the chance to ‘double dip’ with the remaining top-40 selection.

While it’s true that more draft picks result in more chances to hit it big in the lottery, Washington may have the chance in the upcoming draft to fill a major roster hole by jumping back into the first round to get a guy who might not be there in the 2nd round.

For now, this may be an interesting discussion that isn’t quite as ‘played out’ as the intense back & forth over what should be done with the #2 pick, but in less than 4 weeks, the question will be answered, and we will know the draft decisions that will largely complete the process of filling in the starters and backups on the Commanders’ offensive and defensive rosters.

Personally, I’m as keen to find out who the left tackle will be as I am to learn about the starting quarterback.

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