Data suggests we shouldn’t expect much from the Cowboys 2023 draft class in year two

Last year’s draft class was severely underwhelming, and there is some statistical evidence that suggests it’s not likely to get much better.

It’s been all quiet on the Texas front as the Dallas Cowboys have been their usual selves when it comes to free agent spending. With a huge net negative between additions and departures, the Cowboys will soon turn to their most valuable roster-building tool to save them, the NFL draft.

Normally, this wouldn’t be that much of a worry because the team has proven they can replenish the roster just fine with quality drafting over the years. However, this year it’s a little different. For starters, they have less draft capital as they have traded away their fourth- and fifth-round picks this year. Not only that, but the team is also coming off its worst draft in a long time. Of the eight players they selected last season, Mazi Smith was the only guy to start for them, and he only started three games. That’s terrible.

The Cowboys hope this new draft class will help improve their roster, but they’re also counting on some of last year’s guys to take a big step forward and fill some of their newfound voids. Is that reasonable or is it just wishful thinking? To better answer that question, we wanted to run through the last decade of draft picks and see how many other players got off to a slow start and if there is any reason to be hopeful for the 2023 draft class.

For this exercise, we’re comparing the approximate value scores from Pro Football Reference. The idea here is to look at the players who were strong contributors for the Cowboys and see how many of them got off to slow starts. To kick things off, let’s start with the draft picks over the last ten years who turned into All-Pro/Pro Bowl players.

What jumps out about this list is how most of these players hit the ground running. The top 10 AV scores shown above are all players who have earned All-Pro honors. Four of these players earned All-Pro honors their rookie season after the Cowboys only had one other player (Calvin Hill, 1969) achieve that feat over their first 54 years of existence. In other words, greatness doesn’t waste any time. The only All-Pro on that list who didn’t score at least an AV value of four during his rookie season was DeMarcus Lawrence who missed over half the season with an injury.

Of course, they don’t have to become a star to be a good draft pick. Let’s take a look at the players over the last decade who have turned into quality starters/key role players.

What does this list tell us? Similar to the stars, many of these players had good rookie seasons, even though their AV scores are much smaller. Nine players had an AV score of one or less. These are the players we are interested in since almost all of the 2023 draft class falls into this group. We know these other guys turned out to be solid players, so what was the reasoning behind their slow starts?

Breaking things down, they can placed into four categories…

• Two were injured (Randy Gregory and Connor McGovern)
• Three started as special teamers (Damien Wilson, Donovan Wilson, and Noah Brown)
• Two were released at final roster cuts (Terrance Mitchell and Michael Jackson)
• Two were buried on the depth chart and used mostly for their in-line blocking (Geoff Swaim and Dalton Schultz)

These are the circumstances we are hoping for with the 2023 draft class. Guys who were injured haven’t had much of a chance to show us their value. Guys who have played sparingly or primarily on special teams because of the depth at their respective positions also still have potential. As for the two corners who didn’t make the final roster cuts, maybe you could say the Cowboys gave up on them too soon, but in all fairness, they didn’t develop into good players with their new teams until later on down the road.

Now that we looked through the good players over the last ten drafts, let’s remind our viewers what the 2023 draft class looked like.

This list is hard to look at. As mentioned before, Mazi Smith is the only starter which explains why he is the approximate value leader with a whopping AV score of two. Smith’s low score didn’t come from an injury. He played all 17 games. And it didn’t come from too many good players ahead of him to where he wasn’t getting on the field enough. The only nose tackle to offer him competition was Johnathan Hankins who barely outsnapped him 351 to 304. While nothing is set in stone, this doesn’t provide much optimism about the type of player he could be down the road.

It felt like a disappointing season for Luke Schoonmaker and his AV score supports such, but when you’re not the lead pass-catching TE target on the team, that’s going to sway the data. Players like Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson before him had similar low scores in their rookie seasons before they emerged as the Cowboys’ starting tight end. Calling him anything other than a TBD would be unfair.

Both the Cowboys third- and fourth-round picks didn’t play a single snap last year. We have no idea how good DeMarvion Overshown or Junior Fehoko will be. What we can say is that Overshown flashed some good play in the preseason before he got hurt, so there’s a reason to be optimistic about him. Fehoko also suffered a knee injury, but it wasn’t as serious. It felt like the team could have brought him back if they thought he was ready to contribute, but they never did. His brings about a little more doubt.

It gets even worse for the other guys. Asim Richards played a little bit, but he wasn’t good enough to beat out Chuma Edoga for the swing tackle position when Tyron Smith missed four games last year. Considering Edoga was not very good, that’s a little concerning.

Speaking of concerns, the player the Cowboys moved up to get in the draft, Eric Scott Jr., never saw the field last year. With Trevon Diggs missing most of the year, there were opportunities. Nahshon Wright saw some defensive snaps, so did Noah Igbinoghene, and even C.J. Goodwin had a handful. But none for the rookie. He apparently, was never ready. That’s not to say his career is already over, but it’s not off to a very good start.

Deuce Vaughn and Jalen Brooks were buried on the depth chart. It’s unclear where their careers are heading. Vaughn didn’t seem to do much with his limited chances, while Brooks showed some promise.

While there is still some hope, these slow starts are worrisome. Unless a player or two can buck the trend of these former rookie AV scorers, this data could be an early clue that not much can be expected from this draft class. In fact, the 2023 draft class more closely resembles the team’s more notable busts over the last decade.