Day 3 of the SB Nation 2023 Mock Draft Extravaganza – The Commanders are nearly on the clock!

It’s almost time for the real thing! Until then, we get the next best thing.

Each year, just before the actual draft, enterprising individuals from various SBNation blogs take it upon themselves to organize a site-wide full mock draft, with (ideally) writers/posters from each of the team blogs picking on behalf of their team. This year, I will be picking on behalf of the Washington Commanders and tracking progress here. The draft will take place on Discord.

Think of this draft as a series of thought exercises, not simply a rote duplication of what we can expect come late April in Kansas City. It’s not going to be to everyone’s taste. Last year’s exercise can be found here.

Schedule

3/31 – 8 PM EDT / 5 PM PDT (Round 1)

4/1 – 1pm EDT / 10 AM PDT (Rounds 2-3)

4/2 – 1pm EDT / 10 AM PDT (Rounds 4-7)

This page should be updated in fairly close to real time once the draft begins on 4/2.

Pre-Draft Trade: Washington sends Chase Young to the Texans for pick 33. Rationale: I thought Chase Young was a foolish selection when he was taken at #2 overall, and nothing in the past three years has given me strong reason to re-consider that position. He’s already lost a year and a half to injury, which was one of the chief concerns about investing so deeply in a non-QB pick that high in the draft. Young shouldn’t get his 5th year option here, and this was an attempt to get value while teams are still betting on his potential. I’ve cashed in my chips. The move would save Washington about $5.3M this offseason, which could be used to pursue additional free agents.

Pre-Draft Trade: The SB Nation GM crew is a pretty savvy group, so there aren’t often chances to trade back in the first round. The Saints were looking to move up into the third round, however, and I saw an opportunity to gain some draft value. I sent Washington’s third round comp pick received for Brandon Scherff (#97) to New Orleans for #115 and #121. Per the Rich Hill trade value chart, that was a value capture of around 10 draft points for Washington ((26+23) – 39), equivalent to an extra, mid-5th round pick.

In-Draft Trade: Washington sends 16 and 115 to Jacksonville for 29 and 40. Per the Rich Hill chart this represented a significant value pick up by the Commanders, with 16 (305 pts) and 115 (26 pts) totalling 331 points to Jacksonville’s 351 points. That 20 point surplus to Washington is the value of a mid/late 4th round pick.

In-Draft Trade: Washington sends 118, 121, and 235 to Buffalo for 91. This represented a slight loss of value for Washington: 50 – 44 = 6 (about the value of an early 6th round pick).

Round 1, Pick 16 (to Jacksonville)

Round 1, Pick 29 (from Jacksonville)

Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Branch certainly wasn’t a position of immediate need, though he quickly becomes Washington’s starting nickel back in 2023. More importantly, with a significant second contract pending for Kam Curl, Branch gives the team flexibility should they decide to move on from him after this season.

Branch is the best safety available in the draft, with comps to Minkah Fitzpatrick, and could make an ideal Buffalo Nickel in Washington’s defense. From Branch’s draft profile:

Overall, Branch is a versatile defensive back prospect who has the ability to make plus-level plays at every alignment. But teams who draft him are also getting a player who plays with intensity and a passion for the game that can help him become an influential team leader.

Round 2, Pick 33 (from Houston for Chase Young)

Matthew Bergeron, OL, Syracuse

Going into the 2023 draft, there is probably no more apparent “need” than improvement on the offensive line for Washington. That said, as I’ve discussed before, “need” makes people do stupid things in the draft, and teams need to be very careful not to waste draft capital stretching for players when much higher end talent is staring them in the face.

I had hoped to select Darnell Wright (OT) at #29, and he was taken just beforehand by the Titans. No matter, getting Brian Branch, a plug-and-play starter at the end of the first round was great value, and there was still a lot of sneaky talent on the board in round 2, where Washington has three early picks.

One benefit of picking at the very top of Day 2 or Day 3, is that it provides plenty of time to do a deep dive into the players left, and I was able to do just that. I don’t want to reveal too much, as there are two more picks in quick succession, but there’s a lot of high-caliber talent still on the board.

In a draft that has generally been considered to be light on offensive tackle prospects, I was surprised to take a closer look at Bergeron and see that he seems to be a near ideal candidate for Washington.

The Canadian prospect, with massively versatility, would be a great fit given Washington’s current OL situation. During his first two seasons, he started at right tackle for Syracuse, but during his junior and senior years, he was their lock down left tackle. By his senior season, he was also a team captain.

His athletic ability – he has some of the best feet among OL in the draft class – and his high football IQ make him a great for a zone-blocking scheme. He needs to add some strength to improve as a pro-level run blocker, but his instincts are already well-refined.

While some believe he may need to move to guard as a pro – where he has been comped to Joel Bitonio – a number of other talent evaluators believe Bergeron has what it takes to be a pro left tackle. With that upside (and high-end guard downside), Bergeron would be a great fit for a Commanders’ team that already has solid starting tackles and the capacity to be a bit patient with a player of his ability.

Round 2, Pick 40 (from Jacksonville)

BJ OJulari, EDGE, LSU

Only 20 years old, this EDGE rusher has a ton of potential.

From his draft profile:

An underrated aspect of the LSU product’s game is that he varies his pass-rushing plan based on the opponent and has enough tools in his toolset to do so. For example, against Tennessee and Darnell Wright, Ojulari worked the edges more since Wright has a good anchor, but against Ole Miss, he relied more on turning speed to power against the Rebels’ weaker tackles.

If he can improve his use of hands on his finesse moves and add some strength to be more effective when bull-rushing, Ojulari will be a dangerous pass-rusher in the pros. However, his effectiveness against the run is holding his draft stock back.

Schematically, Ojulari might be limited to a stand-up outside linebacker role in odd fronts. He’s just not big and strong enough to put his hand in the ground as a defensive end in even fronts right now. But if a team is looking for immediate pass-rushing help and is willing to be patient with him against the run, he’s worth a mid-to-late first-round pick.

Round 2, Pick 47

Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

From his draft profile:

Two-year starter with the weight room strength and athleticism for work in a variety of run schemes. Tippmann is taller than your average center, but he can bend enough to neutralize at the point of attack. He’s a fluid move blocker who can make wide pulls, climbing cut-offs and adjustments to moving targets in space. He’s recognized for his football intelligence in the pivot and is an effective communicator. He needs to play with better posture and tighter hands to stay mirrored in protection and to improve his body control through engagement. Tippmann’s size, strength, smarts and athleticism should help him become a starter in the NFL.

Round 3, Pick 91 (from Buffalo)

Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse

From his draft profile:

Williams is a physical and aggressive defender that exhibits an alpha mentality in everything he does on the football field. I love the way he triggers downhill, plays through contact, and finishes. He has the type of mindset and skill to be an asset at the next level in run support. There’s a lot to like about his movement skills and reactive athleticism. Williams is a twitched-up athlete with good short-area quickness, speed, and change of direction skills. I like his ability in zone coverage to cue the backfield and trigger. Williams is disruptive at the catch point and showcases the ability to play through the receiver’s hands to force incompletions while flashing the ability to take away the football. I wish he got more opportunities to play press coverage because he profiles as a standout.

With Williams recovering from an ACL injury, it will be a layer to the evaluation for his next team to be mindful of and his athlete profile will be incomplete. He’s likely to start his rookie season on the PUP list. That said, Williams has the makeup of a starter with the ceiling of an impact starter in a defense that plays to his strengths.

This is another very nice profile of Williams, that comps him to James Bradberry.

Round 3, Pick 97 (to New Orleans)

Round 4, Pick 115 (from New Orleans, to Jacksonville)

Round 4, Pick 118 (to Buffalo)

Round 4, Pick 121 (from New Orleans, to Buffalo)

Round 5, Pick 152

Round 6, Pick 193

Round 6, Pick 215

Round 7, Pick 235 (to Buffalo)

I look forward to your thoughts in the comments below:

The Round 1 draft progression can be found here.

The Round 2-3 draft progression can be found here.

Draft Progression: Round 4