Don’t be surprised if the Vikings slow down a bit in free agency

They might already be looking towards 2025

The first full week of NFL free agency was an exciting one for the Minnesota Vikings. Certainly more exciting than some of us, myself included, thought it was going to be. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see things start to slow down a bit as we start winding towards the 2024 NFL Draft.

Why? Well, because the Vikings might already be looking forward to the 2025 NFL Draft, at least in part.

As we’ve pointed out over the course of various offseasons, Nick Korte from Over the Cap does a tracker every offseason concerning which teams are looking at potential Compensatory selections in the next year’s NFL Draft. The Comp picks for 2024 have already been distributed, so now he’s got his focus on 2025.

According to Korte’s calculations, the Vikings are currently in line for a pair of third-round Compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, allotted for the departures of quarterback Kirk Cousins and edge defender Danielle Hunter.

The Vikings have seen six qualifying free agents depart so far in free agency this offseason:

• Cousins
• Hunter
• D.J. Wonnum
• Marcus Davenport
• Jordan Hicks
• K.J. Osborn

To balance that out, the team has only signed four qualifying free agents:

• Blake Cashman
• Jonathan Greenard
• Andrew Van Ginkel
• Sam Darnold

Those four signings “cancel out” the bottom four departures from the other list above based on the relative values of the contracts signed. That means that the Vikings, barring anything changing, should receive the highest possible Compensatory selections for Cousins and Hunter because of the size of the deals they’ve signed with their new teams.

The Vikings could add even more comp picks to the list should some of their other free agents sign offers elsewhere with enough value to cancel out another departure. That could include offensive lineman Dalton Risner, who remains unsigned. If the Vikings brought Risner back, it would not affect their potential Compensatory picks because teams aren’t “punished,” as it were, for retaining their own free agents.

We also still don’t know the terms of offensive lineman Austin Schlottmann signing with the New York Giants, but it would be a bit of a surprise if he signed a deal large enough to make the list of qualifying free agents.

Normally a couple of third-round picks might not be viewed as anything terribly significant. However, the Vikings are already without their second-round pick in 2025 thanks to their trade with Houston late last week, and if their ultimate goal is attempting to trade up in this year’s first round to select a quarterback there’s a decent chance they won’t have their 2025 first-rounder, either. If that’s the case, having a couple of extra thirds in reserve would make that sting a little less for the Vikings’ front office.

So, the Vikings might make some smaller signings here and there as free agency continues, but it would be pretty surprising to see any bigger-ticket signings outside of a potential Risner deal. Don’t be surprised if things are pretty quiet at the Twin Cities Orthopedics Performance Center for the next month or so.