Dueling mock drafts: Trade up or trade back?

Comparing two draft hauls and letting Raider Nation decide what’s best

Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, cases could be made for scenarios where the Las Vegas Raiders trade up or down during the first round.

The Raiders need a quarterback but they’ll likely strike out on one of the top four, and maybe even top five, QBs with the 13th overall pick unless they get aggressive and move up. However, if Las Vegas can’t get a deal done or gets outbid, then going in the opposite direction and acquiring more draft capital wouldn’t be a bad idea.

So, using Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator, let’s take a look at how Las Vegas’ draft hauls would differ in those scenarios. Both drafts below will include a brief explanation and assessment of how well the team’s needs have been filled.

Also, you can vote for your preference between the two in the poll at the bottom.

Trade Up

Trade: LV sends picks 13 (1st), 44 (2nd) and 2025 1st Round to NE for pick 3

• Round 1, Pick 3 (from NE): QB Jayden Daniels, LSU (PFF Grade: B)
• Round 3, Pick 77: CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon (PFF Grade: B)
• Round 4, Pick 112: G Christian Mahogany, Boston College (PFF Grade: A)
• Round 5, Pick 148: RB Will Shipley, Clemson (PFF Grade: A-)
• Round 6, Pick 211: S/LB James Williams, Miami (PFF Grade: C+)
• Round 7, Pick 233: DT Justin Rogers, Auburn (PFF Grade: B)
• Round 7, Pick 226: WR Casey Washington, Illinois (PFF Grade: B-)
• Overall PFF Draft Grade: C+

While this trade was accepted by the simulator since it works out on paper with the draft pick value chart, I would expect the Raiders to pay a “quarterback premium” which would likely be an additional first- or second-round pick. Also, the simulator doesn’t allow picks to be traded beyond 2025.

But, for this exercise, we’ll focus on the fact that Antonio Pierce gets his guy and reunites with Daniels. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye went first and second overall, which could make Pierce pound the table even harder to get a deal done.

In the third round, the Broncos swiped up Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher one pick ahead of the Raiders, so there weren’t many options on the offensive line that wouldn’t have been a reach. That led to pivoting toward a guard in the fourth.

Team Needs

Despite losing the Raiders’ second-round selection in the trade, this draft still checked a lot of boxes from a needs standpoint. Obviously, quarterback is taken care of, as are cornerback and guard. Granted, getting a Day 2 corner won’t assure that the team’s defense gets the elite talent that is looking for, but that’s inevitable with the move to address the most important position on the field.

Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

Las Vegas also gets another running back to throw in the mix and Shipley is a solid option as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. With Williams, the team gets a linebacker project who could develop for a year and potentially take over for Divine Deablo or Robert Spillane if either of those two leave in free agency.

The Silver and Black’s biggest remaining needs would be at right tackle, defensive tackle depth and wide receiver depth. While Rogers or Washington could help with the latter two, there’s no guarantee they’d make the 53-man roster as seventh-rounders, let alone be contributors down the line.

Trade Down

Trade: LV sends pick 13 (1st) to PHI for picks 22 (1st), 53 (2nd) and a 2025 5th Round

• Round 1, Pick 22 (from PHI): CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama (PFF Grade: A+)
• Round 2, Pick 44: QB Bo Nix, Oregon (PFF Grade: A+)
• Round 2, Pick 53: OT Kiran Amegadjie, Yale (PFF Grade: B+)
• Round 3, Pick 77: WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State (PFF Grade: C+)
• Round 4, Pick 112: OL Dominick Puni, Kansas (PFF Grade: A)
• Round 5, Pick 148: DT Leonard Taylor III, Miami (PFF Grade: A)
• Round 6, Pick 203: RB Dylan Laube, New Hampshire (PFF Grade: A)
• Round 7, Pick 223: S Tyler Owens, Texas Tech (PFF Grade: B-)
• Round 7, Pick 229: RB Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss (PFF Grade: B+)
• Overall PFF Draft Grade: A

Four teams were interested in trading for the 13th overall pick; the Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders and Bears. Of those four, only the first two still had first-rounders in this year’s draft and Philadelphia picks ahead of Dallas, so that’s how the trade partner was determined. For those curious, Philly took cornerback Quinyon Mitchell.

There was a run on offensive tackles between picks 12 and 20 that would have made addressing the offensive line a reach in the first round. However, that did mean Arnold slid down the board which still benefits Las Vegas.

In the second round, Michael Penix Jr. was available as well, so the team had options at quarterback. Then, the Raiders were able to get a right tackle option in Amegadijie, who is a project but has a high ceiling at 6’5” and 323 pounds with over 36-inch arms. The mid-rounds were heavy on offensive players but adding Wilson gives the receiving corps and Nix a big target who can win down the field.

Team Needs

As far as the Raiders’ needs go, this draft checks just about every box. Of course, there are questions if Nix is a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL and Amegadjie might not be the immediate starter the team is looking for. But, they at least have options at both spots. Also, getting a top talent at corner and a potential right guard option bolsters this draft’s case.

Las Vegas also picked up a quality wide receiver to add depth and another potential contributor to the position group, as well as a couple of running backs to add to the committee. Granted, the last two are late-round picks but Laube is an intriguing third-down back who could be under-the-radar as a small-school prospect. Also, getting Taylor in the fifth round could be a steal as he’s a solid interior rusher who could replace Adam Butler and backup Christian Wilkins down the line.

Don’t forget to vote for your choice of these two mock drafts and sound off in the comments section with your rationale. If you don’t have a commenting account already, you’ll need to create one but the steps are pretty easy and it’s a seamless process. Also, we have full-time moderators to enforce the Community Guidelines.