Film room: Don’t let the stats fool you, J.J. McCarthy can play

Michigan quarterback could be a first-round option for Raiders

Now that the Super Bowl is over, the focus for the entire NFL shifts toward the offseason. When it comes to the Las Vegas Raiders, most people’s attention is centered around what they will do at quarterback during the NFL Draft.

One prospect who should be on the Raiders’ radar as a potential first-round pick, but is probably the most polarizing player at the position right now, is Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.

The discourse surrounding former Wolverine essentially boils down to a classic debate between numbers and the eye test. Compared to the other top quarterbacks in this year’s draft class, McCarthy’s stats are underwhelming with under 3,000 passing yards and just 25 total touchdowns in 15 games this past season.

However, his traits are apparent on film with plenty of impressive plays that show off his athleticism and arm strength.

In the past, new Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has used the quarterback in the running game. While having Justin Fields under center played a factor in that, McCarthy can make plays with his legs if Getsy wants to continue to keep that part of his playbook open.

Here, Michigan calls a read option with a small wrinkle. Instead of leaving the defensive end (or last defender on the line of scrimmage) unblocked and having the quarterback read the end, they have the tight end and left tackle combo block the end and work up to the outside linebacker in the box (No. 6).

So, McCarthy ends up reading the linebacker who is outside of the tackle box (No. 20) and playing closer to the slot receiver, or the “overhang defender”. Also, Michigan has the slot receiver crack block the overhang which leaves McCarthy one-on-one with safety. The offense can do that because the quarterback has the shiftiness to make the safety miss in space.

To cap the play off, McCarthy puts his shoulder down and gets in the endzone to put points on the board. Granted, he’ll probably want to avoid taking hits like this at the next level, but the nose for the end zone and ability to make people miss in the open field would be intriguing in Getsy’s offense.

In the clip above, it’s second and long and Michigan State sends a blitz with a Cover 1 call behind it. The Spartans also run a stunt with their defensive tackle and linebacker that the Wolverines’ right guard doesn’t pick up, meaning McCarthy has a free rusher barrelling down on him.

However, he doesn’t panic and puts a move on the backer to make the backer miss. From there, McCarthy bails out of the pocket and gets his eyes up to try to find someone downfield. Only the checkdown option is open but since it’s man coverage, the quarterback knows he doesn’t have the defense’s attention so he takes off and has the speed to pick up the first down.

This is a good example of how McCarthy can use his legs and athleticism to turn a potential disaster into a positive play for the offense.

Moving onto a few throws from our subject, one thing he does really well is putting the ball on the correct shoulder and keeping it away from defenders.

Off of this play-action fake, the tight end does a good job of finding a hole in the zone defense from Michigan State. However, the linebacker is reading the quarterback’s eyes and is converging on the tight end quickly.

That being said, a great ball will beat great defense nine times out of ten and McCarthy makes a perfect throw with enough velocity and impressive placement to keep it away from the backer. The endzone view shows how close this pass was to being a PBU as an inch in the other direction might have been an incompletion.

Now, what I will say is this clip does highlight a couple of concerns I have with McCarthy as well. He gets in the habit of staring down his primary target and isn’t good at looking defenders off, yet. Also, part of the reason why this is such a close call is because he’s a little late and could let it rip a tick sooner.

This next clip is similar to the last one but highlights McCarthy’s arm strength more than anything else.

With Michigan State in a one-high safety coverage, their linebacker is going to play from a trail position against the slot receiver, who is a natural tight end and running a seam route. However, the safety is put in conflict with three vertical routes by the trips receivers and ends up on the hash instead of in the middle of the field where he can help the linebacker.

McCarthy is reading the safety and sees the safety get too wide, so he knows exactly where to go with the ball. From there, he zips the pass with more than enough velocity to make sure the backer can’t make a play on it and the safety is nowhere near the receiver when the ball arrives for an easy touchdown.

This is something that pops up consistently on McCarthy’s tape as he has a good fastball to make those tight window throws.

One of the Michigan product’s biggest strengths is his ability to throw on the run. It’s third and long in the play above and the only pass-catchers who are open are the checkdowns that the defense is willing to give up. Knowing they have to pick up 15 yards, McCarthy turns those options down.

The pressure starts to hit home so he bails out of the pocket. While he could hit No. 18 toward the sideline, the safety at the top of the screen is within striking distance and No. 89 has a little more breathing room. So, McCarthy finds 89 and makes a nice throw on the run with impressive accuracy and arm strength to move the chains.

What stands out about his off-platform throws is not only is he accurate, but he also has good arm strength when throwing without having his feet set to help push the ball down the field.

Here is another example of what I’m talking about.

Again, a stunt fools the Wolverines’ offensive line and creates a free rusher that McCarthy has to deal with. But, again, he shows good pocket mobility to make the rusher miss and throws a rope to the endzone without having his feet set.

This isn’t talked about very much with him, but McCarthy’s ability to make off-script plays or something out of nothing is really impressive.

I wanted to save this clip for last because I think it highlights and wraps up a couple of McCarthy’s biggest strengths; athleticism and pure arm strength.

Michigan is running a version of the flea flicker where the running back is essentially throwing a screen to the quarterback, just backward so it goes down as a lateral. However, that also leads to an inaccurate pass that forces McCarthy to use a one-handed catch off of his back foot while his momentum carries him toward the sideline. But that’s not an issue as he hauls in the ball.

Now, impending first-round pick Dallas Turner is barreling down on him so the quarterback doesn’t have time to get his feet set before making the throw. While fading away and dealing with Turner in his face, McCarthy manages to put about 30 air yards on the ball and connect with his receiver for a 20-yard gain while barely having his feet in the ground.

That’s something that just can’t be taught and a big reason why he’s getting first-round love despite having underwhelming stats.

If anyone is interested in more McCarthy breakdowns along with some analysis of Jayden Daniels, check out the episode of Tape Don’t Lie below.