How much did top 2024 QB prospects depend on elite receiving talent?

This is the time of year where virtually every aspect of top prospects, particularly quarterback prospects, gets analyzed to death. This piece is no exception. What I’ve done here is collect the data on each passer’s reliance on his top receivers both for yards and touchdowns, as well as the projected draft positions of those receivers.

Expected draft position is based on the PFF Big Board as of March 20, 2024. Future draft projections are based on collected analyses and best professional judgement of the author.

Let’s dive into it:

Caleb Williams (USC)

Passing Yards: 3,633

Passing TDs: 30

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

Tahj Washington (#155)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,062 (29%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 8 (27%)

Brenden Rice (#95)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 791 (22%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 12 (40%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 51%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 67%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #125

Jayden Daniels (LSU)

Passing Yards: 3,812

Passing TDs: 40

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

Malik Nabers (#4)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,569 (41%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 14 (35%)

Brian Thomas Jr. (#27)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,171 (31%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 17 (43%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 72%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 78%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #16

Drake Maye (UNC)

Passing Yards: 3,608

Passing TDs: 24

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

JJ Jones (Projected as top WR option at UNC in 2025; #75)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 711 (20%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 3 (13%)

Devontez Walker (#72)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 699 (19%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 7 (29%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 39%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 42%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #74

JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

Passing Yards: 2,991

Passing TDs: 22

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

Roman Wilson (#47)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 789 (26%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 12 (55%)

Colston Loveland (Projected as top returning TE in 2025; #50)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 649 (22%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 4 (18%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 48%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 73%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #48

Michael Penix (Washington)

Passing Yards: 4,903

Passing TDs: 36

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

Rome Odunze (#6)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,640 (33%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 13 (39%)

Ja’Lynn Polk (#59)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,159 (24%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 9 (25%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 57%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 64%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #33

Bo Nix (Oregon)

Passing Yards: 4,508

Passing TDs: 45

Top Receiving Options (and likely draft position, if applicable):

Troy Franklin (#40)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,383 (31%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 14 (31%)

Tez Johnson (Projected as top WR option at Oregon in 2025; #50)

Receiving Yards (% of total): 1,182 (26%)

Receiving TDs (% of total): 10 (22%)

Percent Receiving Yards from Top Receivers: 57%

Percent Receiving TDs from Top Receivers: 53%

Avg Draft Slot of Top Receivers: #45

TL; DR

General Trends:

• Drake Maye was far less reliant on top receiver production than any of the other QBs. Jayden Daniels was more more reliant on his top producers than any others.
• Maye was also the best at spreading TDs around beyond his top options. Bo Nix was pretty good as well. Daniels was most dependent on his top options for TDs. JJ McCarthy wasn’t far off from Daniels.
• Daniels had, by far, the most talented receiving options – at least in the view of league evaluators – as his top options. He was throwing to two likely first round picks. Caleb Williams had the most pedestrian receiving options of the group, by a significant margin. Drake Maye was the second least assisted, in that regard.