Kirk Cousins’ projected contract value from ESPN is more than the Vikings can give him

At least before free agency starts

Yes, we’ve got more Kirk Cousins contract discourse for you to enjoy. . .or not enjoy, depending on your perspective.

As we’ve mentioned numerous times, in order to keep Cousins from hitting unrestricted free agency, the Minnesota Vikings would have to have a deal worked out with him before the start of the new league year on 13 March. The amount Cousins should receive has, of course, been the subject of a great deal of debate ever since Cousins injured his Achilles on the cow pasture at Lambeau Field back in Week 8.

Behind the great E$PN paywall, Bill Barnwell has a projection for how much he thinks Cousins is worth in free agency and. . .well, it’s an awfully big number.

Any team hoping to win over the next three years that isn’t in position to land one of the top starters in the 2024 draft should be trying to pursue Cousins. That’s a group that includes the Broncos, Buccaneers, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers and Titans, with the Dolphins and Seahawks as outside candidates if they move on from their current starters. Some of those teams will opt for longer shots in the draft, but if Cousins’ recovery is on track, he should be able to get one more significant deal as a 35-year-old free agent.

Average annual salary projection: $51 million per season

Now, as I’ve said before, I’m as big a Cousins supporter as you’ll probably find here, but if the price tag is $51 million a season, I’m out. Sorry. . .just can’t do it for a guy that age coming off of that injury. I don’t care how good he looks throwing the football around.

But if that’s the number, that presents additional problems for the Vikings because of the way they handled Cousins’ current deal and the void years that are putting the $28.5 million cap hit on the club in 2024 that they’ll have to account for if Cousins doesn’t come back. They’re actually quite limited on how much they can offer him.

Some of the prorated bonuses ($6.25 million in 2023, 2024, and 2025) were left over from the 2022 extension of Cousins, while the remaining $4 million per year was from the 2023 restructure. All that void year money ($28.5 million) is set to count against Minnesota’s cap in 2024 unless Cousins were to sign another extension to stay in Minnesota, in which case they would simply tack onto a new deal’s cap hits in their respective years.

But there is a catch. Those base salaries in 2024-2027, which are effectively dummy numbers that will never be paid, set a cap for a possible future extension. Per the CBA, a player cannot sign a new deal that includes a raise within a year of signing another deal. Cousins’ new deal is, on paper, a 5-year, $200-million deal ($40 million APY), with a $20 million signing bonus (and $180 million in paragraph 5 base salaries), a mark that cannot be exceeded should he sign a deal to remain in Minnesota before the 2024 league year. Given the current market for starting-caliber quarterbacks in the NFL, this would seem to imply that Cousins is going to take a below-market deal or test the market in 2024.

So, if the Vikings are going to get a deal done with Cousins before the start of the 2024 league year on 13 March, it’s going to top out at $40 million/year. That means there won’t be anything happening with Cousins and the Vikings after the new league year because, again, the Vikings aren’t going to take the $28.5 million dead cap hit and pay Cousins a hefty salary on top of that.

That means that, one way or another, in two weeks we’re going to have the answer (at least in part) to the question that we’ve all been asking: What are the Vikings going to do at quarterback in 2024?