Looking at the Dallas Cowboys remaining schedule by offensive and defensive EPA disparity at Week 4

Offense is going to help the Cowboys most of the season.

The Dallas Cowboys dropped a 40-burger on the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night and we all enjoyed every single second of it. As much fun as that was it obviously did not take over 40 points for Dallas to vanquish their division rivals, but scoring points is never not going to be appreciated.

Offense is key in today’s NFL and thankfully the Cowboys excel at it. Being elite on that side of the ball is going to lead to wins far more often than anything else, and thankfully it appears as if it is going to be a notable advantage for the team throughout the rest of the season.

The Dallas Cowboys are going to continue to have a heavy advantage in games because of their offense

Last week myself and BTB’s own Aidan Davis (who does all of the heavy lifting here) began a weekly tradition where we will look at the Cowboys’ remaining schedule in a very particular way.

We are looking at things based on both Offensive EPA/Play and Defensive EPA/Play Allowed. The goal here is to identify which defenses the Cowboys should beat and which offenses they can contain. Keep in mind that who teams are is constantly evolving week-to-week which is why we will re-visit the data, you can visit last week’s right here if you would like to.

Entering Week 4, the Cowboys offense has an advantage in almost every remaining game this season. Only the Carolina Panthers (this week’s opponent, incidentally), Denver Broncos, and New Orleans Saints have defenses with an EPA/Play Allowed that outweighs the Cowboys’ Offensive EPA/Play. The Arizona Cardinals are right about at the push point there at the end.

It is important to remember that the Panthers have played the offenses of the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Houston Texans this season so their data hasn’t exactly been challenged. Obviously you can make arguments like this for a number of teams given that we are still so early into the season but you get the point.

What has stood out so far this season about the Cowboys has been their own defensive prowess. They lead the NFL in takeaways which significantly contributes to the defense’s EPA/Play Allowed and have the advantage on paper against a number of teams, including almost all of their remaining NFC East games which as we all know are the most important from a playoff standpoint.

The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been off to a start like this since the 2007 season

You have to be careful when you bring up successful Dallas Cowboys seasons of old because we have all been hurt way too many times by this team. However, the data is what the data is.

Being good in both phases of the ball (with all due respect to special teams) means that you are a well-rounded team. Speaking in this particular vein the current Dallas Cowboys are the most well-rounded as they have been – remember that we are talking about through a season’s first three weeks – since the 2007 season.

We will continue to look at this as the season goes on, but it is obviously difficult to not get a little excited at this point. None of this outright proves or indicates that this season is going to mirror 2007, but being off to this kind of start is extremely promising for the Cowboys especially considering how they are succeeding on defense given that, unlike the Panthers as mentioned earlier, they have played top-quality offenses/quarterbacks in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers.

Bring on the Panthers.