Looking at what trading up for a quarterback might cost the Vikings

Taking a look at trade values

With the actions he’s taken over the past week or so, it seems abundantly clear that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is looking to take a big swing for the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s acquired a second pick in the first round courtesy of the Houston Texans and, if the rumors are to be believed, is willing to give up much more in order to move up and secure one of the top four quarterbacks.

To trade up, however, you have to have a team that’s interested in moving back. Unfortunately, the teams that are in positions one through three in the first round also have a significant need at the quarterback position and might not be willing to make that move. That doesn’t mean that Adofo-Mensah isn’t going to try, so let’s take a look at what it might cost the Vikings to move up.

In an attempt to put together the values for the draft picks that might be involved, we’ll be using the more modernized Rich Hill trade chart as opposed to the old Jimmy Johnson version. On this chart, the Vikings have 683 “points” worth of picks:

• #11 overall = 358 points
• #23 overall = 245 points
• #108 overall = 30 points
• #129 overall = 18 points
• #157 overall = 11 points
• #167 overall = 9 points
• #177 overall = 8 points
• #230 overall = 2 points
• #232 overall = 2 points

They don’t have a second or third-round pick in this year’s draft and they’ve already given up their second-rounder in the 2025 NFL Draft as well. That means they might have to dip further into their picks for 2025 if they want to trade up. Generally, the theory goes that a first-round pick this year is the equivalent of a second-round pick next year in terms of point value, so we’ll give the Vikings a potential 130 extra points for their 2025 first-rounder. I base that on splitting the difference between the value of the first pick of the second round (180 points) and the last pick of the second round (80 points).

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Vikings have to get up to at least #4, where the Arizona Cardinals currently pick, in order to secure their quarterback of the future. You could make the argument that they might only have to get up to #5 based on the rumors that the Cardinals definitely want Marvin Harrison Jr. at #4 if he’s there, but that’s not set in stone or anything. If you only trade up to #5, that leaves you in a position where you can still get leapfrogged by another team into the #4 spot and the Vikings can’t run that risk if they’re going to take their shot.

Arizona’s pick at #4, according to the Rich Hill chart, is worth 491 points. That means that, in theory, the Vikings’ two first-round picks at #11 and #23 should be more than enough to get that trade done, with those picks being worth a combined 603 points. They shouldn’t have to dip into next year’s picks to facilitate that deal if that’s their target. Of course, the Cardinals could always demand more, but the Vikings should be able to move up with Arizona without having to put another dent into their cache of 2025 picks.

But what if the Vikings are aiming higher? Well, then we look at the New England Patriots at #3, a pick that’s worth 514 points on the trade chart. Again, the two first-rounders the Vikings currently have would be more valuable than the Patriots’ one pick at #3 in terms of point value. If the Patriots (or any other team) wants to attempt to enact a “QB tax” on the Vikings knowing that’s what they’re moving up for, the price could be a little higher, but the Vikings shouldn’t have to use their 2025 picks to move up.

If we’re aiming even higher still, however, the 2025 picks are likely to come into play. The Washington Commanders’ pick at #2 is worth 717 points, and even if the Vikings were to throw in this year’s third-rounder, that total of 633 points would still fall short of that value. That would mean that, to bridge the gap, the Vikings would likely have to throw in that 2025 first-rounder to leap into the second overall pick. And, again, the Commanders could always ask for more.

If most teams in the NFL are using the same sort of trade charts to determine draft pick values, at least on paper the Vikings should be able to trade up without doing too much damage to their future selections. Obviously, we’d like the Vikings to hold onto as many picks as they can while still securing their quarterback of the future if that’s their intention. Of course, maybe that’s not what they’re doing and they’re simply going to try to stockpile other talent and take a shot with a quarterback outside of the top four.

It’s definitely an exciting time to be a Vikings fan, folks. One month from today we’ll finally have our answer about what the Vikings are doing at the quarterback position.