NFL Draft Top QB Rankings Roundup

And what they mean for the upcoming NFL Draft and which QB the Vikings may select on April 25th

It’s inside of three weeks until the NFL Draft and more top QB rankings are coming out as more evaluators finish their film study and put together their rankings ahead of the draft. Some of the more recent ones differ from the more consensus view that has been established from the major media outlets that may prove more insightful as the draft unfolds at the end of the month.

Just how high these quarterbacks are rated on NFL team draft boards, whether they’re more tightly grouped or not, perceived scheme/team fit, NFL readiness, and injury history/durability concerns all play a part in team evaluations of the top quarterbacks- in addition to extensive film study and all the stops in the pre-draft process.

The Early Pre-Draft Consensus Rankings

The largest media sites covering the draft have had rankings out for at least a couple months now. Mel Kiper at ESPN, Lance Zierlein at NFL.com, Dane Brugler at The Athletic, all have the following rankings, the only difference being whether Daniels or Maye is ranked #2 or #3.

1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Drake Maye
4. J.J. McCarthy
5. Bo Nix
6. Michael Penix Jr.

Indeed, for at least a year, we’ve heard Caleb Williams and Drake Maye as the top two quarterbacks in this draft, with Daniels rising after his stellar Heisman-winning season.

But as we get closer to the draft, more evaluations have been coming out that differ from the pre-draft consensus and may be insightful into how the draft may unfold at the end of the month.

Kurt Warner

Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner has a lot of credibility when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks, and he’s published film evaluations of the top six QBs except JJ McCarthy so far. His rankings:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Michael Penix Jr.
4. Bo Nix
5. Drake Maye
6. J.J. McCarthy

For Warner, he has some concerns for all the quarterbacks, but is lower on Maye based on the inconsistency and missing too many layups, which is a common criticism of Maye. For McCarthy, he has him lower simply because he wasn’t asked to carry his team like the others who were asked to throw 35-40 times per game. This is also a common criticism of McCarthy. Penix and Nix were interchangeable for him at #3/#4.

Matt Waldman

Waldman is not as well-known as some others, but he puts together the most comprehensive evaluations and has a pretty good track record. You can download his rookie scouting report on skill position players- over 1,000 pages of evaluations and explanation. His evaluations are meant to be long-term talent evaluations based on film study of the prospects. Last year his top quarterbacks were Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Jake Haener, and Stetson Bennett. Jaren Hall was QB8. Will Levis was his QB13. He’s not afraid to go against consensus and frequently does- with some success. In 2021 his top QBs were Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Davis Mills, Zach Wilson. He got Lance wrong, but otherwise better than most.

Michael Penix Jr. is Waldman’s most underrated quarterback prospect while Maye is his most overrated. Last year Will Levis was Waldman’s most overrated, and Anthony Richardson was his most underrated.

His rankings this year:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Michael Penix Jr.
3. Bo Nix
4. Jayden Daniels
5. J.J. McCarthy
6. Drake Maye

Waldman has more issues with Daniels’ processing and decision-making and suggests he needs to be in a simpler, 1-2 read offense for best success in the NFL, leading to his lower ranking. McCarthy was a difficult evaluation, based on inconsistency in several key aspects of his game and perhaps more limited upside, while Maye’s development is more superficial than substantive with a longer development period- similar to Jordan Love- needed for success with Jake Locker downside.

Waldman can sometimes be more critical of prospects that succeed in the NFL, and he’s also made some overrating mistakes like with Trey Lance, but when he’s more sharply critical of a prospect, like he is with Maye this year and Levis last year, Desmond Ridder the year before, Zach Wilson in 2021, and Jordan Love in 2020, he’s not been wrong.

In terms of scheme fit, Waldman has Nix, Penix, and McCarthy more indirectly as good scheme fits for the Vikings. Overall, big red flags on Maye from Waldman, and also a red flag on Daniels which was echoed a bit by Warner.

Chris Simms

Simms is the son of two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Phill Simms and a former NFL quarterback drafted in the 3rd round and played several years in the league. He’s now with Pro Football Talk and has been doing QB ratings for several years. His claim to fame was having Patrick Mahomes ranked #1 in the 2017 draft, and while he’s had some misses in his rankings, his track record isn’t too bad. His rankings last year were CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Hendon Hooker, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis/Dorian Thompson Robinson. This year his rankings:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Bo Nix
4. Michael Penix Jr.
5. J.J. McCarthy
6. Drake Maye

Simms echoes the concerns about Drake Maye as a project that has some issues that are hard to fix and has him in Tier 4 in his rankings, with Williams in Tier 1, Daniels Tier 2, and Nix, Penix, and McCarthy in Tier 3.

Other Rankings

Among former NFL backup quarterbacks that are now doing quarterback evaluations, Kurt Benkert has his top five rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Caleb Williams
3. JJ McCarthy
4. Bo Nix
5. Drake Maye

Followed by Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Rattler. Benkert is an outlier in having Daniels #1 overall, but also similar with others listed here in having Drake Maye further down the list.

JT O’Sullivan, another former backup journeyman quarterback in the NFL who does NFL and college QB film evaluations via his QB School YouTube channel, hasn’t come out with his rankings yet but did a longer breakdown of the top six QBs below:

My best guess from his comments on his rankings is something close to this:

1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Michael Penix Jr.
4. JJ McCarthy
5. Bo Nix
6. Drake Maye

O’Sullivan is part of a chorus of evaluators lately that have been critical of Maye for his inconsistency, and among those that are higher on Penix than the early consensus, with some skepticism toward McCarthy and a bit of a self-proclaimed bias against Nix both Auburn performance-based and Oregon scheme-based.

What Does All This Mean?

There is a lot to take in not just from these more recent rankings, but the underlying evaluations that go into them.

Drake Maye More of a Project

The first takeaway is that Drake Maye is drawing more red flags from evaluators as the pre-draft process comes to an end and more evaluators weigh in on this draft class. Troubling inaccuracy, poor footwork, and slower processing are all common criticisms of Maye’s game. Some feel that his issues can be corrected easily by drilling fundamental footwork.

Others see it as a more problematic issue that is difficult to resolve. Those in the latter camp argue that a quarterback’s footwork is a window into their thinking on a given play, and that more erratic footwork is a sign of more uncertain processing and decision-making when it comes to reading the defense, pressure, leverage, receivers, etc. The resulting inaccuracy, high pressure to sack rate, and inconsistency creates a low floor for Maye, with a Justin Herbert or Jordan Love last year type ceiling if he’s able to eventually resolve these issues. For that reason, more evaluators are recommending Maye have a Jordan Love-type acclimation period as a backup after being drafted.

Penix Viewed More Positively – But with a Catch

I don’t think any of the recent evaluators really have a better view of Maye’s college tape than Penix’s, at least over the last two seasons. Everything Maye can do at his best with the deep ball Penix can do too and doesn’t have as much inconsistency/inaccuracy/processing issues as Maye. But Penix does have an injury history that will likely weigh on his draft stock.

Penix played a total of six seasons in college, but four of them ended prematurely due to injury. He’s suffered two ACL injuries and two shoulder injuries over his first four seasons at Indiana. And while he’s played full seasons both years at Washington, that injury history will doubtless be a factor in terms of how high he may go in the draft.

McCarthy Still Gets Mixed Reviews Amid Difficult Evaluations

At least a few of the evaluators above cited McCarthy as one of their more difficult evaluations, largely because of his lack of passing volume but also because of his more inconsistent processing. McCarthy wasn’t asked to pass nearly as much as the others in Michigan’s run-heavy offense, and so the sample size on more difficult intermediate and deep throws is small and his deep ball metrics fall off a bit compared to others in the top six.

McCarthy gets his highest reviews on intangibles- he’s seen as a winner, good leadership skills, and he shows moxie on the field. But most evaluators- even those generally more positive on McCarthy- also cite his more inconsistent processing in the red zone and question why he wasn’t given a greater role in the Michigan offense, questioning why Jim Harbaugh took the ball out of his hands and opting to run the ball more often even in 3rd and long situations in close games. How he will perform when asked to carry the load as a passer in the league remains a question mark, despite the high intangibles. McCarthy is generally seen as above-average rather than elite in arm strength and arm talent, with generally good footwork and fundamentals, and a good athlete.

Nevertheless, despite mixed evaluations, it only takes one team willing to bet on McCarthy’s upside at age 21 for him to be drafted high in the first round- potentially as high as #3.

Nix Remains an Unexciting Choice

Bo Nix generally gets strong marks on accuracy and decision-making, two of the most important traits in a quarterback, but seems to be a less exciting prospect for evaluators because he’s not as good off-schedule as Williams or Daniels, not as much of an arm talent as Penix, and doesn’t appear to have as strong intangibles as McCarthy, despite generally good evaluations in those areas.

Some question how well Nix will do outside of Oregon’s short, up-tempo passing offense and whether he has much upside at this point in terms of arm strength and arm talent, although he’s been as accurate or more accurate overall on the intermediate and deep throws as others in the top six.

He’s generally seen as one of the most NFL-ready prospects, having started a record 61 games in college, with sound decision-making and mechanics, but also with questions on his upside and ceiling in the league. A few evaluators also cited pros and cons of the Oregon system, the con being the focus on short passing and screens, with the pro being it was also more of a pro system with more multiple route concepts and full field reads used in the league than the systems the other top quarterbacks ran.

Daniels has More Questions

Some evaluators, notably Matt Waldman, have questioned Daniels’ ability to process full field reads. Others like JT O’Sullivan have mentioned, as has Waldman and Warner, that LSU’s offense was a relatively simple one with a few route concepts repeated over and over again. Most were Air Raid type concepts, with mirrored routes on either side (typically a go/fade route coupled with a hitch route outside in a 2×2 receiver formation), and Daniels was asked to read one side of the field, progress from the go/fade to the hitch and if neither were there take off and run or throw it away. Given that LSU had two first-round receivers in Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas Jr., and a quarterback in Daniels with elite running ability, that worked so why change it said Sullivan. Fair enough. But that won’t work in the league and Waldman pointed out that Daniels did not target the middle of the field much and that his accuracy and success suffered when he did. That raised questions on how well Daniels will do in an NFL offense with multiple route concepts and greater complexity on defense.

How Good Overall is this Quarterback Draft Class?

Dan Pizzuta at 33rd Team did a piece recently suggesting the 2024 quarterback draft class isn’t as good as it is hyped up to be, at least from an accuracy standpoint. He cited some comments Kevin O’Connell made during the Combine along with a couple three-legged stool analogies to illustrate the conundrum evaluators face in determining a quarterback’s ceiling.

The first three-legged stool analogy is for quarterback production, with the three legs being yards per attempt, sacks, and interception rate. In order to increase yards per attempt, a quarterback needs to hold the ball longer and/or force the ball more often, leading to higher sacks and interceptions. Reducing the latter two means the quarterback gets the ball out quicker in shorter high percentage throws but for reduced yards per attempt. And so the how well a quarterback is able to manage these three opposing aspects of quarterback production is key in determining their overall production level. Situational factors doubtlessly contributing to the equation.

The second three-legged stool analogy relates to modern quarterback traits, with the three legs being accuracy, arm strength, and creativity. How a quarterback measures up in each of these traits, along with how well they balance/compensate for deficiencies, can be a better, if also more complex, way to judge their ceiling. For example, creativity isn’t as valuable without accuracy, but accuracy without arm strength and creativity is more limited as well.

That said, Pizzuta cites SIS on-target pass metrics for this draft class that are relatively poor compared to a group of 114 quarterback draft prospects dating back to 2017. On-target being defined as hitting a receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is caught, as opposed to merely a catchable pass.

Of the top 15 quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class charted, only Bo Nix ranked above the 50th percentile in on-target rate at short, intermediate, and deep passing depths. And only Nix ranked above the 90th percentile in the group of 114 prospects in completion percentage in the higher NFL volume short (1-10 yard) and intermediate (11-19 yard) passing depths. Nearly 50% of NFL throws last season were short passes, and another 25% or so intermediate, and just over 10% deep throws, the rest being behind the line-of-scrimmage.

Top prospects Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix ranked in the bottom decile for on-target rates in either the short or intermediate passing depths, or both, and didn’t rank over the 50th percentile at any passing depth. J.J. McCarthy did not rank higher than the 32nd percentile at any passing depth (100% is best).

So, while accuracy may not be the only component in determining a quarterback prospect’s ceiling, the low rankings of most of the top prospects in the 2024 draft class doesn’t necessarily bode well either.

What Does All That Mean for the Vikings?

It’s almost certain at this point that Caleb Williams will be taken #1 overall by the Bears, and increasingly likely that the Commanders take Jayden Daniels #2. The Vikings have been trying to arrange a private workout with Daniels since his pro day, but Daniels’ camp hasn’t seen that as a priority, seemingly slow-walking or stone walling attempts by the Vikings to schedule it, suggesting Daniels feels comfortable or has assurances he’ll be taken before the Vikings would have a chance to draft him even after moving up. It may be that the Commanders were waiting to see if the Bears would definitely take Williams before focusing on Daniels as their pick, but with the former seeming to be the case, the Commanders may have concluded that Daniels will be their pick at #2.

Given that, the Vikings are really looking at Maye, McCarthy, Nix, and Penix as realistic options, with potentially McCarthy or Maye being either out of reach or Hershel Walker-trade expensive if the Patriots decide to trade down, as a recent rumor has suggested.

The Vikings have said that adding another first-round pick gives them the desired flexibility in the first round, whether combining them in trade to move up into the top five, or potentially to stick and pick at #11 and/or #23. But it’s unclear at this point which of these four quarterbacks the Vikings may favor, and if so if they favor him enough to spend two or more first-round draft picks to trade up to get him, if necessary.

Kevin O’Connell has hinted he likes multiple quarterbacks in this draft, which may include one or more of McCarthy, Maye, Nix, and Penix. But I have yet to see any well-connected reporter with reliable sources inside the Vikings organization suggest a name the Vikings favor above the others.

If the Patriots draft JJ McCarthy, as one rumor suggests, and the Giants draft Drake Maye as another rumor suggests, that would narrow the Vikings’ choices to Nix and Penix, unless they’re willing to trade up to #4 or #5 to get Maye ahead of the Giants.

That brings up back to the lower rankings and evaluations on Drake Maye, with multiple credible evaluators raising red flags. Do the Vikings see him in a different light? Would they draft him at #11 or #23 over Nix or Penix? Do they like him enough over Nix/Penix to trade multiple first-round picks to get him?

What if, despite the rumors and as most of the recent QB rankings and evaluations suggest, that neither the Patriots or Giants draft overdraft Maye or McCarthy at #3 or #6, and all four are available at #11? What if only Maye drops to #11 along with Nix and Penix?

Lots of scenarios but few answers not knowing how the Vikings rank these quarterbacks on their draft board. Kevin O’Connell has also said they like some top defensive players in this draft that may be available at #11 or #23 as well.

The recent rankings suggest that between McCarthy, Maye, Nix, and Penix, there isn’t a a big difference in their overall evaluations on average, despite the differences in the prospects themselves, but with McCarthy and Maye being more polarizing prospects. That doesn’t suggest a huge motivation for the Vikings to forego a top defensive prospect and double (or triple-plus) down on one of these quarterback prospects.

Has O’Connell Indirectly Hinted at Which QB the Vikings May Favor?

O’Connell has said that accuracy is the first-and foremost trait he’s looking for in a quarterback, which favors Nix based on all the accuracy metrics- on target %, adjusted completion percentage, over all passing depths. But he’s defined other traits too, from leadership traits, to traits related to mechanics and decision-making, ability to create out of structure, that the Vikings offense thrives on accuracy, rhythm, timing, and that this is not just a passing league, but it has become a completions league as well. The latter could be seen as favoring Nix as well, but in a broader perspective all these traits could include McCarthy and Penix as well.

He also said that several quarterbacks in this draft have gaudy production numbers, but asked how does that translate to 3rd and 7 in the NFL? That could be interpreted first into how well does a quarterback fare on 3rd down, 4th down, 3rd and long specifically, and under pressure or blitzed, as 3rd-and-long situations in the league frequently result in increased quarterback pressures and blitz rates.

According to PFF, Nix graded highest of all QBs on 3rd and 4th downs last season (82.3% adjusted completion rate, 50.5% of passes thrown past the sticks, and only one sack on 113 late down attempts), against pressure (91.2 grade- 18 points above #2), and against the blitz (21 TDs, zero turnover-worthy plays).

O’Connell also mentioned that he wanted to improve on the turnovers from last season, and presumably the turnovers generated by the backups the last half of the season. Nix also had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 1.0%, followed by Maye at 1.9%, Penix at 2.0%, and McCarthy at 2.9%. Nix also had the lowest interception rate and the fewest fumbles among these four quarterbacks last season.

O’Connell also talked about a quarterback, in 2024, having the athletic traits to impact the game. All four quarterbacks are good athletes, with Maye, McCarthy, and Nix in the same tier, and Penix a bit below based on his college tape, rather than his pro day where he drilled very well. In terms of PFF grade outside the pocket, a rough measure of out of structure ability, Nix also graded highest among all QBs in this draft class last season. Caleb Williams is universally regarded as the most talented out of structure quarterback in this draft class- with Daniels the best dual-threat- but Williams also produced a lot of sacks and turnover-worthy plays while scrambling, which doesn’t get mentioned much.

All this may be faulty conjecture on my part, and Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings may well draft a quarterback other than Bo Nix, or use different measures or projections to determine the same traits, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

The Vikings also acquired Sam Darnold, who doesn’t rate particularly well in most of the above, but that may have been due to cost and/or available alternative with decent starting experience concerns. Jaren Hall, who the Vikings drafted last year, ranked well for a Day 3 pick in adjusted completion percentage (9th) and turnover worthy play rate (10th) his last season in college.

Bottom Line

The Vikings may end up choosing between Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. on April 25th. That choice will include whether any potential draft trade is worthwhile, necessary, or possible to acquire their preferred target.

However, it’s not just the quarterback himself that will determine his success with the Vikings. The situation of the team that drafts him- the quality of his offensive line, receivers, coaches, running game, defense, and scheme will all play a role in his future success. On that score, several pundits have suggested that whichever quarterback the Vikings draft will likely have the best rookie season, given the Vikings provide a near ideal situation for a young quarterback with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson as receivers, Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw as bookend tackles protecting him, an offensive minded and former NFL quarterback in Kevin O’Connell (and Josh McCown) calling plays and coaching him, Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler in the backfield behind him, and Brian Flores orchestrating the defense.

But the Vikings may or may not draft a quarterback who is ready to start this season. Both Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are thought by many evaluators to need development time as a backup before they’re ready to start. Nix and Penix, based on having a couple more seasons of college experience and their development, are likely to be more NFL-ready quarterbacks as rookies.

So, we may have to wait longer before the quarterback the Vikings draft at the end of the month will be ready to start, potentially 17 months or longer. My guess is that the Vikings aren’t willing to wait that long, for a variety of reasons, and that may be a factor in which quarterback they choose and their evaluation process.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X/Twitter @wludford