NFL Week 12 odds: Seahawks open as heavy underdogs vs. 49ers

The winner of Thursday night’s game at Lumen Field will lead the NFC West with six games to play.

For the 12s, Week 11 went about as badly as it could with what was a very winnable game instead ending with another gut-wrenching loss for the Seattle Seahawks.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers were never seriously threatened as they cruised to a 13-point win in a game that saw Brock Purdy complete 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards and 3 TDs as he became the first Niners’ QB since Joe Montana (in 1989) to finish a game with a perfect passer rating.

The good news is that nothing that happened in Week 11 was going to change what is at stake on Thanksgiving night.

Despite the sour taste in our mouths right now, the NFC West lead is on the line when the 49ers and Seahawks face off at Lumen Field in the final game of the NFL’s Turkey Day Tripleheader.

Game 1: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 9:30am on FOX

Game 2: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, 1:30pm on CBS

Game 3: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 5:20pm on NBC

That’s one heck of a lineup.

Or not.

Sort of depends on your point of view, I guess.

Mine is that the morning game has an 8-2 Lions team hosting a 4-6 Packers team that they beat by 14 points (on the road) in Week 4, while the afternoon game has the 7-3 Cowboys hosting the 4-7 Commanders (who they also play in Week 18).

The nightcap is much more exciting given that it features two teams that are much closer in the standings.

If the Seahawks win (which, of course, they will – we hope), Seattle and San Francisco will be tied atop the NFC West with identical 7-4 records.

Except the records won’t really be “identical” because Seattle will have the head-to-head tiebreaker in their pocket (for now) and will thus be the NFC West leader heading into Week 13.

On the flip side, if the Seahawks lose, they will:

1. Be two full games behind the Niners (6-5 vs. 8-3);
2. Be on the wrong end of the aforementioned head-to-head tiebreaker (with the rematch scheduled for Week 14 in Santa Clara); and
3. Trail the Niners in regard to both the division and conference tiebreakers (with little chance of catching up).

Technically, the Thanksgiving game at Lumen Field isn’t a “must win” for the frustratingly inconsistent Seahawks, but . . .

It sure does feel like it.

Sadly, but not at all surprisingly, DraftKings Sportsbook set the opening line for the game at six seven points.

If you want to bet the moneyline, the Niners are minus-310 (meaning you’ll need to risk $310 to win $100) while the Seahawks are plus-250 (meaning you’ll win $250 if you bet $100).

The Over/Under opened at 42.5 points.

Two things worth considering:

One. The Seahawks hold a 30-20 lead in the all-time series between these two teams, including an 18-10 advantage under Pete Carroll, and an 8-5 edge since Kyle Shanahan took the reins in San Francisco, but . . . the Niners have won the last three by a combined score of 89 to 43.

Two. We don’t yet know who will be starting at quarterback for the Seahawks.

Geno Smith showed some serious grit and leadership by re-entering Sunday’s game late and helping the team get into position for a potential game-winning field goal.

If Geno is able to play on Thursday, the Seahawks might have a chance. If not, well . . . I won’t cite Drew Lock’s stats, but don’t be surprised if the betting line moves even further into the Niners’ favor.

Go Hawks!