Patriots draft profile: Is J.J. McCarthy’s upside worth the risk?

McCarthy is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft.

The New England Patriots are currently set to pick No. 3 in the 2024 NFL Draft, largely due to the poor quarterback play they received last season.

As New England now may look for their next potential franchise quarterback with that selection, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has been gaining steam up draft boards in recent months.

McCarthy is an interesting study coming from a Jim Harbaugh offense that prioritizes running the football — to a point where McCarthy threw just eight passes in a win against Penn State last season. But the small sample size for McCarthy is what makes the quarterback such a polarizing topic as his potential ceiling varies from eye-to-eye.

So, let’s therefore take a closer look at McCarthy to find out what he may bring to the table.

Hard facts

Name: J.J. McCarthy

Position: Quarterback

School: University of Michigan

Opening day age: 21 (12/18/2000)

Measurements: 6’2 4/8”, 219 pounds, 9” hand size, 31 5/8” arm length, 75 7/8” wingspan, N/A Relative Athletic Score

Experience

Career statistics: 40 games (28 starts) | 1,853 offensive snaps | 482-of-713 (67.6%), 6,226 passing yards, 49 passing TDs, 11 INTs | 161 rushing attempts, 632 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs

Accolades: Griese–Brees Quarterback of the Year (2023), First-team All-Big Ten (2023), Second-team All-Big Ten (2022)

A former hockey player growing up, McCarthy turned his primary focus to football early in his high school career at Nazareth Academy. After leading his team to consecutive appearances in the state championship game, McCarthy transferred to IMG Academy prior to his senior season due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

With IMG, McCarthy quarterbacked the team to an 8-0 record and a consensus high school football national championship. As a five-star recruit, he then committed to the University of Michigan despite growing up a fan of Ohio State — who said they would not add a QB in their 2021 recruiting class before eventually accepting Kyle McCord.

After serving as the primary backup his freshman season, McCarthy earned the Wolverines starting job in Week 3 the following year. He led Michigan to a 12-0 record entering a late-season matchup with the undefeated Buckeyes, where McCarthy threw three touchdowns in order to secure Michigan’s spot in the College Football Playoff. In the semi-finals against TCU, McCarthy threw a career-high 343 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 51-45 loss.

Returning as the team’s undisclosed starter in 2023, McCarthy led Michigan to an undefeated season and second straight Big Ten Championship — becoming the fastest quarterback in Michigan history to reach 25 career wins. McCarthy then tossed three touchdowns agains Alabama in the Rose Bowl to secure their spot in the National Championship game, where the Wolverines defeated Washington 34-13.

McCarthy then declared for the NFL Draft as he leaves Michigan with a 27-1 record, the third-best winning percentage (.964) by a quarterback in college football history.

Draft profile

Expected round: 1 (Top 15) | Consensus big board: No. 8 | Patriots meeting: Scouting Combine, Pro Day

Strengths: Despite the volume of his passing attempts being low, McCarthy showed good arm strength and comfortability inside the pocket. He was willingly to push the ball over the middle of the field where his velocity allows him to work into tight windows.

McCarthy also features a strong athletic profile that boosts his game in numerous ways. He moves well inside the pocket and has the ability to throw on the run (mostly working to his right) — which opened up bootleg opportunities and the occasional designed run play for the Wolverines offense.

His work with his legs also plays by helping him avoid negative plays. Despite having an aggressive mindset with the ball, McCarthy’s career pressure-to-sack rate (14.3 percent) ranks third amongst the top quarterback prospects in this year’s class.

Weaknesses: While he isn’t shy of throwing over the middle of the field, things got shaky for McCarthy at times when he attacked outside the numbers. He often appeared to try and drive the ball outside which led to sprays and misses.

This particularly appeared when he was throwing left as McCarthy tended to overstride. His completion percentage, efficiency, and success rate all drop targeting the left side of the field — something that even was visible during his throwing performance at the NFL Combine.

While McCarthy has good arm strength, he also struggled to connect on go balls (another issue that flashed at the Combine). McCarthy may benefit from putting more air on his throws as he often fires too many line drives downfield, sometimes a result from him being late through his process.

That last concern with McCarthy is his frame. He played his last season listed at 202 pounds but measured in at 219 at the NFL Combine. Where he ends up could play a big role in his durability on an NFL field.

Patriots preview

What would be his role? Unlike some of the other top projected quarterbacks in this class, McCarthy likely will need time on the bench to begin his NFL career. Despite his success at the collegiate level, the 21-year-old threw just 713 passes in a run-heavy Michigan offense. Beginning his career behind a Jacoby Brissett-type veteran would likely be the best path for him to begin the year.

What is his growth potential? While McCarthy is best beginning his career learning on the sideline, there is plenty of talent to develop. McCarthy’s traits could lead to him becoming a quality starter on his rookie contract but teams may see even more untapped potential within. There’s huge risk with his final upside.

Does he have positional versatility? McCarthy is a good athlete at the quarterback position — and even made a nice one-handed snag prior to completing a pass on a trick play in the Rose Bowl — but the QB position is the QB position.

Why the Patriots? Quarterback remains the biggest need on the roster and the Patriots may see the higher side of McCarthy’s final ceiling. Plus, the Michigan product could be a strong fit in Alex Van Pelt’s projected run first system that includes plenty of play-action and bootlegs to get the QB on the move.

Why not the Patriots? Sitting at No. 3 overall, the Patriots might simply prefer other quarterback options on the board (likely between Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels) over taking the chance on developing McCarthy’s upside — which they may not even deem worthy of the No. 3 selection in the first place.

One-sentence verdict: McCarthy has intriguing traits and plenty of upside that can still be tapped into, but teams must decide if the unknown is worth the risk atop the draft.

What do you think about J.J. McCarthy as a potential Patriots target? Is the risk worth the potential reward? Will he come off the board within the first five picks? Please head down to the comment section to share your thoughts.