Patriots free agency profile: The writing seems to be on the wall for Tre Nixon

Nixon is an exclusive rights free agent this offseason.

The New England Patriots are already in the middle of a franchise-altering offseason. They have a new head coach, restructured their front office, and are expected to overhaul their roster from the top down.

Free agency will be a key part of this process. And while adding external players to the mix will undoubtably happen, there are also quite a few in-house free agents to be taken care of. In total, 22 are headed toward the open market this spring and in need of a new contract.

Among them is wide receiver Tre Nixon, the next player in our free agency profile series.

Hard facts

Name: Tre Nixon

Position: Wide receiver

Opening day age: 26 (1/26/1998)

Size: 6’2”, 190 lbs

Jersey number: N/A

Free agency status: Exclusive rights free agent

Experience

Coming off a record-setting senior season at Viera High School, Nixon received offers from multiple power-five schools before eventually committing to Ole Miss as a four-star recruit. After two years with the Rebels — the first of which spent in redshirt capacity — he transferred to UCF, where he started 27 consecutive games over a three-season span.

Between his stints in Oxford and Orlando, Nixon appeared in a combined 40 contests and caught 109 passes for 1,671 yards and 13 touchdowns. His production in college opened the door for him to enter the NFL: in the 2021 draft, the Patriots invested the 242nd selection in the seventh round to bring him aboard.

However, Nixon has failed to make much of an impact on New England’s offense since his arrival. Despite being hand-picked by the team’s long-term research director, Ernie Adams, he has yet to appear in any games outside of preseason and spent his first three seasons as a pro either on the practice squad (2021, 2022) or on injured reserve (2023).

2023 review

Stats: N/A

Season recap: After spending his entire 2022 sophomore season on the Patriots’ practice squad, Nixon was signed to a reserve/futures deal in January. This allowed him to keep working with the team — something he did throughout spring practices and deep into training camp and preseason.

However, Nixon suffered a right shoulder injury in the first half of the Patriots’ exhibition contest against the Green Bay Packers. He remained on the field for several minutes following a deep target down the sideline, and eventually was ruled out for the remainder of the contest. Three days later, he was waived with an injury designation and after going unclaimed reverted to New England’s season-ending injured reserve list.

At the time of his injury, Nixon had played 62 combined offensive and special teams snaps over two preseason games. He caught four passes for 24 yards.

Free agency preview

What is his contract history? Coming off his third year in the NFL, Nixon has put his signature under multiple contracts already. The first of those was his four-year, $3.58 million rookie deal that was terminated before his first regular season. Since then, he has been on one-year offseason and practice squad deals. In total, Over the Cap calculates his career earnings at just under $1 million.

Which teams might be in the running? Nixon’s career so far means he will not be a priority free agent for any team, but there are some that might want to take a look at him for offseason depth purposes — including New England. Other teams in that category might include the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints.

Why should he be expected back? While Nixon’s body of work may not warrant a contract, teams have 90 roster spots available during the offseason and not all of them will be filled by starter-level players. That in combination with some NFL experience and a low price tag might work in his favor.

Why should he be expected to leave? As noted above, Nixon has yet to appear in any regular season games in the NFL. And while the Patriots have kept him on the practice squad, the team’s coaching changes might be bad news for his outlook. Even with roster spots not yet at a premium at this point in the offseason, the club might decide to look elsewhere for receiver depth.

What is his projected free agency outcome? As an exclusive rights free agent, the Patriots have the option to tender Nixon via what is essentially a one-year minimum deal. In his case, that tender would have a value of $915,000 — not enough to qualify for Top-51 status under the NFL’s offseason rules. Despite his lack of production the last three years, that outcome seems entirely possible. That said, even if Nixon is retained as an ERFA, the writing seems to be on the wall: he will remain a bottom-of-the-roster player, and as such might not even make it past the draft and subsequent rookie free agency.

What do you think about Tre Nixon heading into free agency? Does he have a future in New England? Will the Patriots even try to keep him as a free agent? Please head down to the comment section to discuss.