Player Comps for QBs in the 2024 Draft Class Based on Past Draft Profiles

Have we seen these guys before?

Yesterday, I published a recap of quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the modern draft era, commencing with the introduction of the rookie wage scale in 2011. That piece culminated a series of three articles which were intended to remind people of the hit and miss nature of drafting QBs.

“Generational” draft prospects sometimes become elite starting quarterbacks, like Peyton Manning. But sometimes they are exceeded by prospects that few saw coming, like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. On the flip side, “sure thing” prospects, like Ryan Leaf, RG3 and Sam Darnold don’t always pan out.

Quite a few readers seem to have taken the news a little too hard. Drafting QBs is always a gamble. But as I have shown previously, it is a gamble that teams need to take to give themselves the best chance of enjoying long term success. You might not every time, but as long as you avoid wasting first round picks on costly trades, investing high first round picks on highly rated QB prospects is bound to pay off eventually.

The 2024 draft appears to be a deep QB class. That could mean that it will be like 2018, which three long-term starting QBs in the first round. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have become elite starting QBs, while Baker Mayfield has had an up and down start to his career and appears to have finally broken out as a quality starter with his second team. Or it could be like 2021, when media pundits and NFL teams predicted a bumper crop of starting QBs. Three years later it appears that only one of the five QBs picked in the top 15 was a success.

In order to restore a sense of hope in the fanbase, here are some comps to the top rated QBs in the 2024 draft class, based on how successful QBs profiled at this point in the draft process in previous seasons.

The key point here is that I have made the comps based on how each player was profiled ahead of the draft. I have obviously cherry-picked these comps to point out how each of the top 2024 prospects could find a path to success, despite the many flaws and reservations noted by draft evaluators. There are no “sure things” in this draft class like a Matt Leinart or a JaMarcus Russell. But each player has positives in their draft profiles, as well as potential pitfalls, that are similar to previous prospects who have found success in the league.

Lest anyone get too carried away, I also included a cautionary comp for each player.

Consensus ranks refer to the prospect rankings in the The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board, which brings together rankings from over 80 draft experts.

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Caleb Williams, USC

Consensus Rank: 2

Comp: Joe Burrow

Cautionary Comp: Blaine Gabbert

Williams draws the occasional “generational” review, but I don’t think he is viewed in quite the same category as Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence as a prospect. If he were, he would be the consensus #1 pick in this or any other draft class, no matter how good a prospect at any other position may be.

My comp is based on the fact that he is widely regarded as an NFL-ready prospect and occupies a tier of his own, ahead of all of the other QBs in this draft class. The successful QB who shared both of those similarities at this point in the process is Joe Burrow. Jared Goff also profiled as an NFL ready passer, but was not the consensus top QB in his draft class. Josh Rosen was rated slightly higher by the general consensus, despite many analysts having Goff in first place.

Williams is actually ahead of Burrow in this comp, because he would have been the top overall pick if he had declared last year, following his sophomore season in college. Burrow only broke out in his fifth and final college season, after losing the staring job at OSU and transferring to LSU.

On the cautionary side, Blaine Gabbert was the top rated QB in his draft class and ticked all the boxes for an NFL starter. Jaguars’ head coach, Jack Del Rio, who was not consulted on the pick, appears to have not shared the consensus media opinion. Fortunately for Commanders’ fans, one thing we know for sure about Adam Peters’ approach to the draft is that he draws heavily on input from the coaching staff, particularly where QBs are concerned.

Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Drake Maye, UNC

Consensus Rank: 3

Comp: Josh Allen

Cautionary Comp: Jameis Winston

Like Maye, Allen was viewed as having all the physical tools to become a star in the NFL, but raw and in need of extensive development to succeed at the next level. David Carr has suggested that he would benefit from a year on the bench for an NFL team to mold him in their image, like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately for him, Green Bay doesn’t have a high first round pick this year, and seems to be set at QB in the near term. Not many other teams have that kind of patience with top-5 draft picks.

The Bills took the more usual approach and started Allen right away. He struggled through his first two NFL seasons, before making the All Pro second team, Pro Bowl and finishing second in MVP voting in his third season.

Jameis Winston is not a perfect cautionary comp, because he and Maye are different kinds of QBs. What they have in common is that they were both viewed as prospects with the raw talent to merit a high first round pick, despite some questions about their decision making, footwork and consistency, which might take some time to iron out at the next level.

Both comps for Maye were viewed as boom or bust prospects whose ceilings were so high they were worth the gamble. It will be an enormous surprise if an NFL team doesn’t take the same gamble on Maye in the first three picks of the 2024 draft.

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Jayden Daniels, LSU

Consensus Rank: 9

Comp: Lamar Jackson

Cautionary Comp: Robert Griffin III

Like Jackson, Daniels profiles as an elite playmaker who can beat teams with his arm or his legs. Draft profiles of both players also express major concerns about whether their thin frames would be able to hold up to the punishment that running QBs take in the NFL.

The cautionary comp to RG3 extends only as far as the concern about durability of running quarterbacks. Like Daniels, RG3 was prone to heroics when he extended plays with his legs. If Daniels does not learn to protect himself better than he did in college, his starting career in the NFL could be just as short. Daniels and RG3 are almost polar opposites in personal makeup and character, which was the bigger part of RG3’s undoing. Daniels gets rave reviews for his leadership from coaches and teammates.

Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Consensus Rank: 22

Comp: Jordan Love

Cautionary Comp: Daniel Jones

There is something to be said for drafting a proven leader and winner. If the Commanders do surprise everyone and pick J.J. rather than one of the other top-rated prospects, don’t despair. Here are some other QBs who had consensus ranks in the second half of the top-32: Deshaun Watson (22), Lamar Jackson (21), Patrick Mahomes (30), Josh Allen (27). None of those QBs was picked in the top 5, but they would be in a re-draft.

McCarthy is often described as “enigmatic”. He was only in college for three years and just turned 21, so he is the youngest and least experienced of the top QB prospects. He succeeded at the college level in a run-heavy offense with a pro-style passing game, and wasn’t leaned on to carry the offense. Consequently, there is not as much tape on him throwing the ball as the other top prospects.

There have been consistent reports throughout the draft process that some NFL teams are higher on McCarthy than most analysts. What is it that they are seeing? While he has moderate arm talent and needs further work to improve his timing and ball placement, two things stand out in his draft profiles that might appeal to pro scouts. He did not have to make a lot of plays off structure at Michigan, but when he did he was one of the most efficient QBs in college football at doing so. He was also confident in attacking the middle of the field, which is a little unusual for college QBs, and essential for success in the NFL, particularly in offenses that feature play-action.

Love had a very different profile to McCarthy coming into the draft. He had prototypical size and a rifle arm, which McCarthy lacks. But they have two things in common, which are the reason for this comp. They were both viewed as needing a lot of work to develop for the next level. In Love’s case, it was that, following a breakout sophomore season, he regressed in his final year and started throwing a lot of interceptions. But, like McCarthy, he was also fearless in attacking the middle of the field.

Love had the benefit of sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for two years to perfect his craft. The team that drafts McCarthy might need to be just as patient, which is fairly rare.

The cautionary comp comes to us via Walterfootball’s Charlie Campbell. Apparently not all NFL teams like what they see from McCarthy. According to Campbell’s NFL sources, McCarthy reminds them of either Daniel Jones or Will Levis as prospects. Campbell’s take on the Jones comp is…

…in terms of athleticism, running ability, and quality arm talent. However also like Jones, there are a lack of passing instincts and some stretches of play when he does not make plays as a passer.

As negative comps go, Jones isn’t a worst-case scenario. He played well enough in New York to earn a long term extension, although, maybe in hindsight that wasn’t the best decision. Even so, he has done better than a lot of QBs drafted in the first round. Still, we would hope to do better with the second overall pick. Afterall, Jones was expected to go in the second round.

Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images

Bo Nix, Oregon

Consensus Rank: 33

Comp: Andy Dalton

Cautionary Comp: Mac Jones

Bo Nix is not going to the pick at second overall. He could come into play in the 5% chance that some team offers a rebuild-the-franchise trade package that’s too good pass up, and Adam Peters finds himself making his first pick later than currently scheduled.

The similarities between Nix’s and and Dalton’s draft profiles are eerie. Dye the hair and style the eyebrows and they could be the same player. They are practically identical size, have plus mobility and were highly productive in QB-friendly college systems. Both also got to the draft with questions about whether they will be able to adapt to NFL systems.

Dalton had a consensus rank of 51, and was drafted by the Bengals with the fourth pick of the second round. He started for 9 years in Cincinnati, made three Pro Bowls, and took the team to the post-season in each of his first five seasons.

Nix’s cautionary comp, Mac Jones was just an inch taller and three pounds heavier at the Combine. He was also rated in the same range as Nix, with a Consensus Rank of 27. Like Nix and Dalton, Jones profiled as a QB who would suit an offense based on short passes and timing throws.

Jones was picked 15^th by the Patriots and had a spectacular rookie season, outplaying “generational” talent Trevor Lawrence, who was picked first overall. In his NFL debut, he threw for 3,801 yards with 22 TDs to 13 interceptions, achieved a respectable 56.9 total QBR, finished 2^nd in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting and was voted to the Pro Bowl. Unfortunately, his decision making regressed in his sophomore season, and 3 seasons after he was drafted he was traded to the Jaguars to back up generational talent Trevor Lawrence.