QBs who slipped in the draft, but succeeded afterward

In a recent article, MattinBrisVegas explored the idea of whether we “Can We Pick Deep QB Classes in Advance?” It was an fascinating piece with some interesting conclusions, primarily focused on “first round talents” and how they fared. However, his article did also take note of quarterbacks outside the first round who had enjoyed some level of success.

Based on a comment from poster “71-65-77-72” that I misinterpreted, I started down the rabbit hole of trying to find out why some of these QBs slipped (and why they might have succeeded).

The results of that information gathering exercise are below.

All draft profile comments and prospect grades are from Lance Zierlein at NFL.com. The prospect grading scheme changed in 2014. The NextGen Scores are from NFL.com as well.

Andy Dalton

Drafted by (Year): Cincinnati Bengals (2011)

Draft Position: Round 2, pick 35

Prospect Grade: 7

NextGen Score: 74

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 50

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 4-12

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 10-6

Draft Profile:

Dalton is four-year starter and proven winner, but he will have a difficult transition to the NFL. He is undersized and will not be able to take off and run at the next level. He is generally an accurate passer, however he will make some poor throws when his mechanics break down. Also, he plays in a very user friendly scheme where he throws to a lot of wide open receivers and it is unclear if he can fit the ball into tight windows. Dalton will need some time to learn a more complicated offense and he looks to be a mid-round pick.

Key Weaknesses:

• Size
• May not be able to rely on playing out of structure

Russell Wilson

Drafted by (Year): Seattle Seahawks (2012)

Draft Position: Round 3, pick 75

Prospect Grade: 68.50

NextGen Score: 85

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 50

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 7-9

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 7-9

Draft Profile:

Wilson is this year’s big-time question mark at quarterback. Unlike those who have held this title in the past, Wilson is a stellar passer who shows arm strength and accuracy when he is able to deliver the ball without a hitch. A transfer from North Carolina St. over the summer, he has outstanding football intelligence as he picked up the Wisconsin offense in a short time and was the opening-day starter. However, at his height teams will have concerns whether or not he can see to make the throws at the next level. He is a mechanical mover who has strong technique and leadership qualities. If Wilson were three inches taller there would be debate at the top of the draft as to where he fits in, but look for teams to take a flier on him in late rounds to see if he can develop and outplay his size.

Key Weaknesses:

• Size

Nick Foles

Drafted by (Year): Philadelphia Eagles (2012)

Draft Position: Round 3, pick 88

Prospect Grade: 81

NextGen Score: 67

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 36

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 8-8

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 10-6

Draft Profile:

Foles has been a productive signal caller for Arizona over three years as a starter and has the arm strength and size that garners first-day consideration for teams looking to fill a void at quarterback. He is a mechanically sound passer who has a solid release. In a different year, it’s possible that Foles could be vying for the top quarterback spot; he is hit with hard luck by being in the middle of a quarterback-laden class. He is a big-time leader who rarely gets rattled. Foles’ athletic ability will be a concern to some, and while he is projected as more of a “game manager” type, his skill set comes together nicely so he should be at least a serviceable starter at the next level. If teams can fall in love with his arm strength, he could be selected as early as the second round to develop and become an eventual starter.

Key Weaknesses:

• Game manager
• Stuck in a loaded draft

Kirk Cousins

Drafted by (Year): Washington Redskins (2012)

Draft Position: Round 4, pick 102

Prospect Grade: 56

NextGen Score: 71

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 45

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 5-11

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 6-10

Draft Profile:

Cousins was a three-year starter, as well as a rare three-year captain, at Michigan State. He is a self-made guy, a tireless worker who has deficiencies that could hurt his pro potential. He is not a very strong deep thrower; while his velocity is adequate, his accuracy when throwing deep is questionable. Ultimately, Cousins is a guy who could get drafted based on his experience and intangibles, and will need to put on size and fine-tune certain throwing deficiencies to catch on at the next level. Based on the production and leadership at Michigan State, Cousins has late-round value to a team looking for someone to compete for a backup role.

Key Weaknesses:

• Weak deep ball accuracy

Geno Smith

Drafted by (Year): NY Jets (2013)

Draft Position: Round 2, pick 39

Prospect Grade: 91

NextGen Score: 81

Age at Draft: 22

College Starts: 45

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 6-10

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 8-8

Draft Profile:

Though Smith has had his ups and downs as a passer in West Virginia’s prolific spread offense, NFL general managers appreciate his ultra-competitive nature, athleticism, arm strength and quick delivery. The Mountaineer turned down a Senior Bowl invitation after regressing in the second half of the season following a strong start. Smith’s eye level and pocket movement can be great, but he reverted back to staring down his first read. During his sophomore season, Smith played in an offense where he frequently took snaps from center, so he might have a leg up compared to some other prospects in that regard.

Key Weaknesses:

• Difficulty reading defenses
• Poor blitz awareness

Derek Carr

Drafted by (Year): Oakland Raiders (2014)

Draft Position: Round 2, pick 36

Prospect Grade: 6.3

NextGen Score: 82

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 38

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 4-12

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 4-12

Draft Profile:

Athletic, tough, instinctive, strong-armed, highly competitive quarterback who will impress in workouts, interviews and on the board. Elevated the Fresno State program and profiles like a gunslinger, though he’d be better served in the long run honing his game-management skills. Will be a starter sooner rather than later and the degree to which he’s able to make those around him better will determine his ceiling.

Key Weaknesses:

• Size
• Deep passing skills

Jimmy Garoppolo

Drafted by (Year): New England Patriots (2014)

Draft Position: Round 2, pick 62

Prospect Grade: 5.9

NextGen Score: 75

Age at Draft: 22

College Starts: 45

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 12-4

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 12-4

Draft Profile:

A decorated, FCS passer, Garoppolo could excite quarterback coaches with his quick delivery, mental make-up and work habits, yet he still needs to prove he can fit the ball into tight windows and do more than carve up soft shells the way he regularly did on his way to a record-breaking performance in college. Possesses the physical tools to eventually earn an NFL starting job in a rhythm passing game with continued refinement, but is more of a caretaker than a game changer and will require some patience adapting to the NFL game.

Key Weaknesses:

• Accuracy
• Game manager

Jacoby Brissett

Drafted by (Year): New England Patriots (2016)

Draft Position: Round 3, pick 91

Prospect Grade: 6.1

NextGen Score: 71

Age at Draft: 23

College Starts: 39

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 12-4

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 12-4

Draft Profile:

With his size, arm and competitiveness, there are times when Brissett will remind you of Jameis Winston, but Winston understood the nuances of the position early in his college career while Brissett is still learning. Brissett’s overall ability as a passer is NFL-­caliber and he should continue to show rapid improvement on the next level with better weapons and protection. While an NFL staff will need to help him overcome his bad habits and learn to be more consistent with his pre­-snap recognitions, Brissett has the tools to become an NFL starter.

Key Weaknesses:

• Poor footwork as a result of a lot of pressure
• Deep ball accuracy
• Has to work on pre-snap reads

Dak Prescott

Drafted by (Year): Dallas Cowboys (2016)

Draft Position: Round 4, pick 135

Prospect Grade: 5.9

NextGen Score: 78

Age at Draft: 22

College Starts: 49

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 4-12

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 12-4

Draft Profile:

Hard to find an NFL comp for Prescott because he’s built like Donovan McNabb, but lacks McNabb’s ability and polish. Prescott has NFL size, mobility and enough arm, but the tape shows a player who must improve his mechanics, poise and quickness through his progressions if he is to become a full­-time starter in the NFL. There are absolutely draftable traits and upside, but he will need extended work to smooth out his flaws. Until then, a team would be wise to utilize him on short-yardage packages.

Key Weaknesses:

• Poor footwork as a result of a lot of pressure
• Pre-draft DUI arrest

Gardner Minshew

Drafted by (Year): Jacksonville Jaguars (2019)

Draft Position: Round 6, pick 178

Prospect Grade: 5.6

NextGen Score: 69

Age at Draft: 22

College Starts: 52

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 5-11

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 10-6

Draft Profile:

Minshew’s ascension from unheralded graduate transfer to Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year is indicative of the enigma he is in the 2018 draft. He might not have the desired traits, but he has very good intangibles and accuracy. He could become a good QB3 in a timing-based passing attack that conceals his average arm talent.

Key Weaknesses:

• Size
• Arm strength
• Escapability

Jalen Hurts

Drafted by (Year): Philadelphia Eagles (2020)

Draft Position: Round 2, pick 53

Prospect Grade: 6.14

NextGen Score: 88

Age at Draft: 21

College Starts: 42

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 9-7

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 9-7

Draft Profile:

Like Tim Tebow, Hurts is a winning dual-threat quarterback known for his strength, toughness and character. Hurts is a more accurate passer and better runner than Tebow but is inconsistent as a decision-maker and tends to break the pocket when throws are there to be made. His deep-ball touch and intermediate accuracy improved this year so teams may see him as a developmental talent who will keep getting better in the right scheme. He’ll struggle to beat NFL defenses from the pocket, but his ability to grind out yards on the ground and make off-schedule plays should make him a solid backup with upward mobility.

Key Weaknesses:

• Struggles off schedule
• Trouble with early reads

Brock Purdy

Drafted by (Year): San Francisco 49ers (2022)

Draft Position: Round 7, pick 262

Prospect Grade: 5.57

NextGen Score: 70

Age at Draft: 22

College Starts: 46

Team Record in the Season before Drafted: 10-7

Team Record two Seasons before Drafted: 6-10

Draft Profile:

Four-year starter who was never able to improve upon a stellar sophomore campaign. Purdy is a burly pocket quarterback who needs a play-action based offense where he can rely on timing over release quickness and arm strength. He can be a confident passer when he finds his rhythm, but throwing is more of a chore than a talent thanks to a labored release. Certain areas of the field will be off limits as he moves up to take on NFL coverage talent. He’s a scrappy runner but not dynamic enough to make up for his shortcomings as a passer.

Key Weaknesses:

• Slow release
• Consistency

Conclusions

It’s definitely the case that not all of the “successful” QBs above have been equally successful: Russell Wilson has won a Super Bowl (and been to a second). Nick Foles won a Super Bowl, but has been a back-up for much of his career. And, Gardner Minshew is a back-end starter or plus back-up depending on who you ask. That said, I think there are some interesting commonalities. Here are some themes I see:

• Undersized – It’s not a surprise that lack of prototypical size is one of the key reasons for QBs falling in the draft. It was explicitly noted for Dalton, Wilson, Carr, and Minshew. That said, if you come across an evaluation like Wilson’s in the future, don’t hesitate to burn a second rounder on him.
• A crappy OL right before being drafted – Several of these QBs, Prescott, Brissett, and Smith come to mind, had poor offensive line play – and subsequent “happy feet” – mentioned in their profiles in the year before they were drafted. If a QB has recently regressed as a result of a bad OL, that could be a sign their ceiling has been deceptively muted.
• “Just a game manager” – Dalton, Foles, and Jimmy G. were all called out for a lack of ability to play outside of structure. That said, they’ve all had considerable success at times when they’ve started in the NFL, and they’ve been great back-ups throughout their careers.

What other trends, if any, do you see? I look forward to hearing from you in the comments.