Sunday Patriots Notes: New England needs to answer one fundamental question in this year’s draft

Notes and thoughts on the Patriots and the rest of the NFL on February 18.

The 2023 NFL season is in the books, meaning that the entire league is now in offseason mode. For the New England Patriots, this will merely be a continuation of a process that already started last month: following their 4-13 finish they have quickly started their rebuilding process — something that continued this week.

Of course, the NFL never sleeps so there is a lot more going on than what we’ve been able to cover. So here, as always, our Sunday Patriots Notes to properly put a wrap on the week.

1. The Patriots need to answer one fundamental question in this year’s draft: The Patriots’ aforementioned 4-13 season was in large part due to the team’s inability to play consistently competitive football on the offensive side of the ball. The main problem was the quarterback position, where neither Mac Jones nor Bailey Zappe were able to perform at the level needed for the unit to emerge past league-bottom status.

Of course, QB play was just the tip of the iceberg in New England in 2023. The offensive line was a mess in large part due to injury issues, while the wide receiver and tight end positions were mostly underwhelming.

This puts the Patriots in a challenging position heading into the draft. Yes, they need an upgrade at quarterback badly. However, they also need a lot more than that.

New England therefore will have to answer a fundamental question: Do they build from quarterback up, or first fill out the roster and insert a QB later?

There are levels to this question, of course, and those two options are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

The Patriots can still decide to pick a passer early in the first round — they are currently slated to draft third overall — and add pieces through the rest of the draft as well as in free agency and/or via the trade market. They could opt to go with a veteran bridge starter before their high-price investment is ready to take over, presumably in 2025. They could trade down from No. 3 in hopes of improving their capital to fill more holes elsewhere. They could try to develop a high(er)-upside second- or third-tier prospect behind the scenes.

At the end of the day, though, it all comes back to that question above — one the team’s new-look leadership still has two months to try to answer.

2. Why the Patriots are likely to bring in new quarterbacks in 2024: As noted above, the Patriots’ offensive struggles were due to a variety of factors which in turn puts the team in a difficult position to start off its rebuild on that side of the ball. However, there is a pretty strong argument when it comes to the direction the club should go.

The Patriots’ 2023 quarterback group, after all, was simply not up to par even when considering the shortcomings in other areas. The following graphic, shared by Pats Pulpit’s own Matthew Rewinski, illustrates this:

As can be seen, neither Mac Jones nor Bailey Zappe received much if any help by their supporting cast. But even putting that into account they were among the worst passers in football last season.

This all points in a clear direction: the Patriots should start from scratch at the most important position on the field.

3. J.J. McCarthy is one of the hottest names in the draft at the moment: The top three quarterbacks in this year’s class will be front and center over the next two months, and constantly linked to New England: USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. The Patriots picking one of the three is not an unrealistic outcome.

Of course, as mentioned above, they could also decide to trade down from No. 3 and try their luck with the next tier of prospects. And if so, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy might be a name to watch.

The 21-year-old played a comparatively limited role during the Wolverines’ championship run in 2023, completing 240 of 332 passes (72.3%) for 2,991 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Those numbers are quite solid, but McCarthy was not the main engine to drive his team’s offense in his two years as starter.

Nonetheless, NFL teams are rumored to be quite high on him as a developmental prospect. In fact, veteran draft and college football analyst Thor Nystrom even went as far as to claim “McCarthy will not be available at 11” this week.

Whether or not that prediction will turn out to be accurate remains to be seen. Fact is, however, that McCarthy is as intriguing and likely as polarizing a prospect as any in this year’s draft.

4. Directional passing raises questions about potential Patriots target Drake Maye: One of the most popular picks for the Patriots is North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and there is plenty to like about his game; he has the high ceiling teams are willing to invest in due to his combination of decision making, arm talent, and mobility. Maye is a prototypical 2024 NFL quarterback.

However, that doesn’t mean he is without flaw. His footwork needs some cleaning-up, and there is a noticeable drop-off when it comes to his directional passing: while he has been quite productive throwing to his left and the middle of the field, his right is a different story.

As with all things draft, there is more to Maye than this one chart; it is for the teams’ evaluators to figure out what to make of it.

Fact is, however, Maye and the rest of the quarterback class in particular will be subject to intense scrutiny both from within and from outside the league until draft day (and likely beyond). That is the nature of the draft in this day and age.

5. Will Alex Van Pelt fix the Patriots’ third down offense? New England’s offense had a boatload of issues in 2023, and one of the most prominent was the team’s inability to keep drives alive. The Patriots ranked only 31st on third downs with a conversion rate of just 30.2 percent.

The goal is clear: for the Patriots to improve their offense, they need to improve that number. The pressure will be on new coordinator Alex Van Pelt to help achieve that.

Looking at his four years with the Cleveland Browns, we can see that in three of four Cleveland out-ranked New England in that category; the Browns finished seventh the NFL in 2020 (44.9%), followed by 17th (39.2%), 19th (38.1%), and 29th (31.6%). Obviously, though, the Browns’ third down success decreased each season and the goal should not be to outproduce a bad Patriots team.

In that sense, Van Pelt himself also needs to show that the decline in third down ranking during his tenure with the Browns was due to circumstance rather than coaching. The Patriots are seemingly counting on that being the case.

6. Bill O’Brien acknowledges the challenge that was Patriots’ 2023 season: Bill O’Brien had plenty of success in his first stint as New England’s offensive coordinator. His second, meanwhile, was a failure: he was brought in with high hopes of helping get the unit back on track but instead it bottomed out.

Earlier this week, the new Boston College head coach spoke about the experience.

“Last year was a tough year,” he told WEEI’s Gresh and Fauria. “We didn’t play well offensively. And I say we. All of us. We just didn’t do a good enough job. We turned it over too much. We made too many self-inflicted errors. I wish Coach Mayo and that staff the best. They’ll get it right. …

“It was a tough year, but those things happen. I’ve been doing this 32 years. Not every year has been 14-2, 14-3. Some years are tougher than others and last year was tough. But there was a bunch of good guys on that team that I enjoyed coaching and I really wish everybody at the Patriots the best.”

7. Eliot Wolf’s father shares his 2 cents on the Patriots draft: New England’s new quasi-general manager, Eliot Wolf, has NFL blood running through his veins: his father, Ron, was a Hall of Fame executive who helped lead the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl as their general manager. So, what would he do in the draft if he was in his son’s shoes?

The Boston Globe asked Wolf that question, and he had a clear if still somewhat vague answer.

“I would go with the best player available,” he said.

Who will that player be? That depends on New England’s draft board, but Wolf pointed out that the value of the quarterback position cannot be underestimated either.

“When it comes to this draft and the Patriots, I also understand this: you can’t go anywhere these days without someone taking that snap from center. That’s the most important position in the game.”

Does his son see it the same way? That is likely. What that will eventually lead to, however, remains a mystery.

8. Setting up the week ahead: The Patriots have a busy week ahead. Not only is the expectation that they will announce their full coaching staff soon, they also have three key dates to keep in mind:

Monday: Offensive tackle Trent Brown’s contract will void. He will carry a minimum $2.04 million salary cap hit in 2024 — his remaining signing bonus proration — regardless if he is re-signed or not.

Tuesday: The NFL’s franchise tag window will open. The Patriots have one intriguing candidate to receive the tag in safety Kyle Dugger. The window will close after Tuesday, March 5.

Saturday: The HBCU Legacy Bowl will kick off at 4 p.m. ET. The Patriots were the lone team to draft a player from a HBCU school last year when they selected Jackson State cornerback Isaiah Bolden in the seventh round.